El Salvador
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Stretched developers. Exposed to food and funding shocks; debt relief and better yields are their upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 24.9
- rank 87 of 197 · 3 years: 24.7
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −5.7
- rank 95 of 197 · 3 years: −5.4
- Shock absorbed
- 24%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.27
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Monetary & Currency Capability
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Global funding seizure, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; remittances relative to gdp; public debt relative to gdp; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; few months of imports covered by reserves; urban share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in El Salvador’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.77 | −0.87 | −1.10 | −0.49 | ▼ 4 | 25 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.74 | −0.85 | −1.12 | −0.50 | ▼ 3 | 22 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.3 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.85 | −0.82 | −1.19 | −0.52 | ▼ 4 | 28 | Energy Infrastructure 5.1 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.83 | −0.78 | −1.03 | −0.45 | ▼ 4 | 20 | Monetary & Currency Capability 3.4 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.63 | −0.70 | −0.92 | −0.41 | 0 | 21 | Artificial Intelligence 1.2 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.63 | −0.66 | −0.78 | −0.35 | 0 | 14 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.55 | −0.62 | −0.79 | −0.35 | ▼ 3 | 20 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.63 | −0.61 | −0.80 | −0.35 | 0 | 20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.2 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.39 | −0.45 | −0.61 | −0.27 | ▲ 2 | 17 | Monetary & Currency Capability 4.5 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.38 | −0.34 | −0.43 | −0.19 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.5 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.46 | −1.17 | −1.07 | −0.45 | −0.45 | −1.12 | −1.05 | −0.90 | −1.16 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.79 | −0.46 | −0.38 | −1.11 | −0.97 | −1.04 | −0.97 | −0.95 | −0.95 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.24 | −0.40 | −0.98 | −0.44 | −1.10 | −1.18 | −1.01 | −1.01 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.44 | −0.52 | · | −0.53 | −0.47 | −1.06 | −1.73 | −1.22 | −1.08 |
| AI labour shock | −0.70 | −0.36 | · | −0.95 | −0.83 | −0.98 | −0.83 | −0.82 | −0.82 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.76 | −0.48 | −0.87 | · | −1.06 | −0.99 | −0.93 | −0.40 | −0.45 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.69 | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.32 | −0.74 | −0.72 | −0.74 | −0.73 | −1.00 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.34 | −0.39 | −0.71 | −0.36 | −0.83 | −1.15 | −0.95 | −0.36 | −0.41 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.24 | −0.56 | −0.19 | −0.53 | −0.50 | −0.54 | −0.58 | −0.43 | −0.49 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.25 | −0.55 | −0.55 | · | −0.61 | −0.63 | · | −0.23 | −0.23 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what El Salvador is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +11.8 | 13.9 | 2.1 | 18 | 76 | Energy Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +9.0 | 15.0 | 6.0 | 22 | 96 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +8.8 | 15.7 | 6.9 | 33 | 20 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5.5 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +1.6 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 30 | 109 | Intelligence & Assessment 4.8 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −3.6 | 19.5 | 23.1 | 32 | 84 | Investment Attraction & Projection 5.7 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −5.2 | 14.2 | 19.4 | 21 | 101 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −10.2 | 8.9 | 19.0 | 22 | 148 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −10.8 | 17.3 | 28.1 | 23 | 131 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −14.8 | 8.0 | 22.8 | 16 | 130 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −21.0 | 4.6 | 25.6 | 10 | 101 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for El Salvador, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 4.2% Possible · rank 16 | Global funding seizure Extreme | ×1.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 3.0% Possible · rank 7 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×1.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Breakdown of state function | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 2.5% Possible · rank 97 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 1.7% Possible · rank 29 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 7.4 Foundational → Nascent | 1.7% Possible · rank 74 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Financial System Depth & Access 7.2 |
| Health system failure | 8.7 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Possible · rank 39 | Global funding seizure Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 33 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 22 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Rule of law failure | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 99 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.7 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 6.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 20 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4 |
| Food and water failure | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 60 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Financial System Depth & Access 7.2 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 123 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.7 |
| Collapse in energy security | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 75 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.0 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 69 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Financial System Depth & Access 7.2 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 109 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 73 | Global funding seizure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 114 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 |
| Defence readiness failure | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 70 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.7 |
| Education pipeline failure | 8.4 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 115 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 108 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.8 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 114 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×2.8 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 108 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.8 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 6.1 Foundational → Nascent | — Remote · rank 126 | Core disaster Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 108 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 113 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 107 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 107 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 107 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 7.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 107 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 107 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 7.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 107 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 107 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 107 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 107 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 107 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 107 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 107 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 7.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 107 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 107 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 107 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 107 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 107 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Wider international influence | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 107 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Capable digital government | 7.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 109 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 109 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 107 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Research translated into value | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 107 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 107 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 7.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 107 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |