Eritrea
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Acute fragility. Every scenario is severe; there is little capability left to lose. One of 14 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 71.9
- rank 8 of 197 · 3 years: 71.9
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −14.7
- rank 161 of 197 · 3 years: −14.3
- Shock absorbed
- 7%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.33
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 8of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Monetary & Currency Capability
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Regional war spillover, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; share of exports going to china and the united states; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; low real gdp per head; public debt relative to gdp; low life expectancy at birth; share of population aged under 15; little renewable water per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Eritrea’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.69 | −0.92 | −1.02 | −0.46 | ▼ 3 | 12 | Monetary & Currency Capability 0.1 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.83 | −0.88 | −0.91 | −0.44 | ▼ 1 | 10 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.71 | −0.86 | −0.95 | −0.43 | ▼ 2 | 10 | Financial System Depth & Access 0 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.69 | −0.85 | −0.92 | −0.42 | ▼ 1 | 9 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.73 | −0.74 | −0.77 | −0.38 | 0 | 7 | Monetary & Currency Capability 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.56 | −0.66 | −0.70 | −0.33 | 0 | 7 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.50 | −0.64 | −0.70 | −0.32 | ▲ 2 | 11 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.40 | −0.50 | −0.53 | −0.24 | ▲ 4 | 5 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.41 | −0.44 | −0.46 | −0.21 | ▲ 4 | 7 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.24 | −0.23 | −0.26 | −0.11 | ▲ 3 | 6 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.1 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.17 | −1.21 | −0.42 | −1.14 | −1.09 | −1.06 | −1.25 | −0.91 | −1.07 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.18 | −0.65 | −1.13 | −0.59 | −1.34 | −1.29 | −1.49 | −0.59 | −0.65 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −1.33 | −0.43 | −1.06 | −0.48 | −1.08 | −1.22 | −1.06 | −1.09 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.17 | −1.22 | −1.08 | −0.47 | −0.47 | −1.06 | −1.10 | −0.91 | −1.13 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.17 | −0.56 | · | −0.56 | −0.51 | −1.01 | −1.61 | −1.19 | −1.01 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.18 | −0.39 | −0.35 | −0.39 | −0.91 | −0.78 | −0.91 | −0.89 | −1.15 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.18 | −0.38 | −0.31 | −0.92 | −0.80 | −0.81 | −0.80 | −0.78 | −0.78 |
| AI labour shock | −0.18 | −0.28 | · | −0.74 | −0.66 | −0.69 | −0.66 | −0.64 | −0.63 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.18 | −0.36 | −0.65 | · | −0.79 | −0.71 | −0.66 | −0.30 | −0.34 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.10 | −0.39 | −0.39 | · | −0.44 | −0.45 | · | −0.16 | −0.16 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Eritrea is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +2.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 5 | 119 | Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +1.4 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 7 | 96 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −0.7 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 10 | 128 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 1.3 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −3.9 | 5.2 | 9.1 | 7 | 153 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 0.3 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Loser | −13.1 | 3.8 | 16.9 | 8 | 189 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −13.9 | 2.0 | 15.9 | 8 | 151 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −26.6 | 4.7 | 31.3 | 8 | 174 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −28.2 | 4.2 | 32.5 | 5 | 195 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 0.3 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −29.2 | 2.2 | 31.4 | 4 | 180 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −35.3 | 0.6 | 35.9 | 2 | 175 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Eritrea, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Health system failure | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 1.6% Possible · rank 13 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extreme | ×2.1 | Financial System Depth & Access 1.6 |
| Food and water failure | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | 1.5% Possible · rank 19 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severe | ×1.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.2 |
| Defence readiness failure | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 44 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.0 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 0.3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 67 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.2 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×16 | — |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.6 | — |
| Broad fall in human capital | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 191 | No route found · closest 3.0 of 3 | ×2.6 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 191 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.2 | — |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.9 | — |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.6 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×41 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.0 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.9 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.8 | — |
| Breakdown of information trust | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 191 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Diplomatic isolation | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 191 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Breakdown of state function | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.8 | — |
| Rule of law failure | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Loss of financial stability | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.8 | — |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.0 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×23 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×17 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×17 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×8.5 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×16 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×16 | — |
| Wider international influence | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×9.8 | — |
| Capable digital government | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Research translated into value | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 190 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×16 | — |