Fiji
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 29.6
- rank 74 of 197 · 3 years: 29.3
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −6.5
- rank 99 of 197 · 3 years: −6.0
- Shock absorbed
- 21%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.30
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 8of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Hybrid coercion. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; adult obesity rate; remittances relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Fiji’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.94 | −1.03 | −1.29 | −0.58 | ▼ 6 | 28 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.76 | −0.84 | −1.05 | −0.48 | ▼ 3 | 19 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.72 | −0.82 | −1.04 | −0.47 | ▼ 1 | 21 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.82 | −0.81 | −0.93 | −0.43 | ▼ 5 | 19 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.66 | −0.71 | −0.89 | −0.41 | ▼ 3 | 17 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.70 | −0.61 | −0.74 | −0.33 | ▼ 5 | 18 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.59 | −0.53 | −0.74 | −0.33 | ▼ 1 | 12 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.1 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.54 | −0.49 | −0.65 | −0.29 | ▲ 2 | 11 | Economic Output & Productivity 2.8 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.42 | −0.41 | −0.58 | −0.26 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Energy Infrastructure 4 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.27 | −0.32 | −0.42 | −0.18 | ▲ 5 | 9 | Energy Infrastructure 4.3 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.34 | −1.45 | −1.12 | −0.56 | −0.56 | −1.39 | −1.30 | −1.11 | −1.43 |
| AI labour shock | −0.46 | −0.45 | · | −1.21 | −1.06 | −1.24 | −1.06 | −1.03 | −1.03 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.44 | −0.46 | −0.37 | −1.12 | −0.98 | −1.05 | −0.98 | −0.96 | −0.96 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.50 | −0.63 | −1.07 | · | −1.40 | −1.31 | −1.22 | −0.52 | −0.60 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.43 | −0.39 | −0.35 | −0.39 | −0.91 | −0.88 | −0.91 | −0.89 | −1.23 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.33 | −1.02 | −0.97 | · | −1.13 | −1.17 | · | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.22 | −0.35 | −0.60 | −0.32 | −0.74 | −1.03 | −0.84 | −0.32 | −0.36 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.21 | −0.33 | · | −0.33 | −0.30 | −0.68 | −1.10 | −0.77 | −0.69 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.62 | −0.20 | −0.49 | −0.22 | −0.55 | −0.59 | −0.51 | −0.51 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.12 | −0.40 | −0.14 | −0.37 | −0.36 | −0.38 | −0.41 | −0.31 | −0.35 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Fiji is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +9.6 | 12.6 | 3.0 | 18 | 93 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +5.8 | 11.6 | 5.9 | 25 | 90 | Intelligence & Assessment 3.3 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +3.5 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 15 | 114 | Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +2.5 | 19.4 | 16.9 | 28 | 59 | Energy Infrastructure 4.9 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +0.5 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 32 | 91 | Energy Infrastructure 4.9 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −3.1 | 11.9 | 15.0 | 20 | 90 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −7.7 | 6.2 | 13.9 | 18 | 134 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −17.1 | 4.7 | 21.8 | 7 | 84 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −18.0 | 14.7 | 32.7 | 19 | 167 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −23.9 | 8.9 | 32.8 | 14 | 170 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Fiji, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 4.3% Possible · rank 29 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severe | ×1.8 | Resource Infrastructure 3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 3.1% Possible · rank 13 | Regional war spillover Extreme | ×1.5 | Resource Infrastructure 3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | 2.3% Possible · rank 68 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Major | ×2.2 | Resource Infrastructure 3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 2.3% Possible · rank 28 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Major | ×2.2 | Resource Infrastructure 3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 1.5% Possible · rank 16 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Artificial Intelligence 1 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.5% Possible · rank 63 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Resource Infrastructure 3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 6.0 Foundational → Inception | 1.3% Possible · rank 6 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Rule of law failure | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 1.2% Possible · rank 31 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 22 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extreme | ×2.1 | Resource Infrastructure 3 |
| Health system failure | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 81 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 54 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.1 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 53 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severe | ×2.1 | Resource Infrastructure 3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 68 | Regional war spillover Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.7 | Resource Infrastructure 3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 62 | Regional war spillover Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.7 | Resource Infrastructure 3 |
| Food and water failure | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 115 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 2.3 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 69 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 2.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 65 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 |
| Education pipeline failure | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 143 | AI labour shock Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 116 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.0 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 122 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.7 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 116 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×16 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 134 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.8 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 136 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.2 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 116 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.8 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 121 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.0 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 7.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 8.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.1 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.9 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.6 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Wider international influence | 6.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Capable digital government | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 116 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 7.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 116 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Research translated into value | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |