Gambia
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 42.7
- rank 36 of 197 · 3 years: 42.5
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −7.3
- rank 106 of 197 · 3 years: −7.3
- Shock absorbed
- 15%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.31
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Global funding seizure, Breadbasket failure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; remittances relative to gdp; low real gdp per head; consumer price inflation; share of population aged under 15; public debt relative to gdp; low life expectancy at birth.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Gambia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.79 | −0.92 | −1.04 | −0.48 | ▼ 5 | 23 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.66 | −0.80 | −0.93 | −0.42 | ▼ 1 | 19 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.79 | −0.79 | −0.94 | −0.42 | ▼ 4 | 15 | Economic Output & Productivity 0.5 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.84 | −0.79 | −1.01 | −0.45 | ▼ 2 | 15 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.60 | −0.76 | −0.90 | −0.40 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Energy Infrastructure 1.2 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.53 | −0.63 | −0.72 | −0.32 | ▲ 1 | 16 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.50 | −0.58 | −0.70 | −0.31 | 0 | 14 | Energy Infrastructure 1.5 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.54 | −0.55 | −0.60 | −0.27 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.40 | −0.47 | −0.54 | −0.24 | ▲ 3 | 9 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.32 | −0.30 | −0.34 | −0.15 | ▲ 1 | 7 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.20 | −1.25 | −0.90 | −0.52 | −0.52 | −1.30 | −1.21 | −1.04 | −1.33 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.33 | −0.46 | −0.35 | −1.12 | −0.98 | −1.05 | −0.98 | −0.96 | −0.96 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.19 | −0.55 | · | −0.55 | −0.50 | −1.11 | −1.82 | −1.27 | −1.13 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.19 | −0.54 | −0.81 | −0.49 | −1.14 | −1.59 | −1.30 | −0.49 | −0.56 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.17 | −0.97 | −0.32 | −0.92 | −0.88 | −0.94 | −1.01 | −0.75 | −0.86 |
| AI labour shock | −0.23 | −0.35 | · | −0.92 | −0.81 | −0.95 | −0.81 | −0.79 | −0.79 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.87 | −0.27 | −0.69 | −0.31 | −0.77 | −0.82 | −0.71 | −0.71 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.25 | −0.44 | −0.71 | · | −0.98 | −0.92 | −0.85 | −0.37 | −0.42 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.25 | −0.26 | −0.24 | −0.26 | −0.61 | −0.59 | −0.61 | −0.60 | −0.83 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.13 | −0.52 | −0.49 | · | −0.57 | −0.59 | · | −0.21 | −0.21 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Gambia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +5.6 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 14 | 72 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +4.5 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 19 | 40 | Energy Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −3.0 | 7.7 | 10.8 | 17 | 139 | Intelligence & Assessment 2.3 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | −3.1 | 6.7 | 9.7 | 9 | 139 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −6.0 | 8.8 | 14.9 | 14 | 162 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −6.6 | 5.2 | 11.8 | 15 | 111 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −9.6 | 13.1 | 22.6 | 17 | 113 | Energy Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −9.6 | 3.1 | 12.7 | 9 | 93 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −11.7 | 12.6 | 24.3 | 14 | 148 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −24.7 | 1.6 | 26.3 | 4 | 131 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Gambia, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 4.7% Possible · rank 9 | Global funding seizure Extreme | ×1.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Breakdown of state function | 6.1 Foundational → Inception | 3.2% Possible · rank 69 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 2.4% Possible · rank 16 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 1.6% Possible · rank 76 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | 1.3% Possible · rank 53 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.6 | Resource Infrastructure 1.5 |
| Rule of law failure | 6.4 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 46 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Health system failure | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 50 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 |
| Food and water failure | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 49 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 136 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 121 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Resource Infrastructure 1.5 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 81 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 |
| Education pipeline failure | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 58 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 138 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Regional war spillover Extreme | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 160 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Resource Infrastructure 1.5 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 153 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 162 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 164 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×9.0 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 165 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.3 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 164 | Already at the foot of the scale | — | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 165 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 165 | No route found · closest 2.5 of 3 | ×3.5 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 169 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.9 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 164 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×9.0 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 165 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.9 | — |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 170 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.2 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.2 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.4 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.9 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.9 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.1 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.9 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Capable digital government | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Research translated into value | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 164 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |