Germany
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 5.4
- rank 191 of 197 · 3 years: 5.3
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +42.2
- rank 1 of 197 · 3 years: +42.5
- Shock absorbed
- 62%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.01
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 2of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Hybrid coercion, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of population aged 65 and over; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population; refugees hosted per head of population; urban share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Germany’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.87 | −0.55 | −1.27 | −0.52 | 0 | 14 | Maritime Power 11.4 · Transitional |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.84 | −0.47 | −1.25 | −0.47 | 0 | 8 | Digital & AI Competence 14.6 · Established |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.82 | −0.47 | −1.28 | −0.47 | 0 | 10 | Foundational Education 14.6 · Established |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.89 | −0.45 | −1.14 | −0.45 | 0 | 12 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 14.3 · Established |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.74 | −0.34 | −0.92 | −0.34 | ▼ 1 | 5 | Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 15.8 · Advanced |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.75 | −0.34 | −0.84 | −0.34 | 0 | 13 | Maritime Power 11.6 · Transitional |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.60 | −0.32 | −0.89 | −0.32 | ▲ 1 | 7 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 15.5 · Advanced |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.42 | −0.25 | −0.67 | −0.25 | 0 | 7 | Energy Infrastructure 14.5 · Established |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.44 | −0.22 | −0.61 | −0.22 | 0 | 6 | Energy Infrastructure 14.5 · Established |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.38 | −0.19 | −0.50 | −0.19 | 0 | 8 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 11.9 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.31 | −0.73 | −0.73 | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.70 | −0.65 | −0.56 | −0.72 |
| AI labour shock | −0.52 | −0.24 | · | −0.63 | −0.55 | −0.65 | −0.55 | −0.54 | −0.54 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.49 | −0.25 | −0.22 | −0.60 | −0.52 | −0.56 | −0.52 | −0.51 | −0.51 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.57 | −0.31 | −0.62 | · | −0.69 | −0.65 | −0.61 | −0.26 | −0.30 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.21 | −0.23 | · | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.46 | −0.75 | −0.53 | −0.47 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.25 | −0.54 | −0.59 | · | −0.60 | −0.62 | · | −0.23 | −0.23 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.42 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.38 | −0.36 | −0.38 | −0.37 | −0.51 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.13 | −0.31 | −0.12 | −0.29 | −0.28 | −0.30 | −0.32 | −0.24 | −0.27 |
| Core disaster | −0.01 | −0.33 | −0.12 | −0.26 | −0.12 | −0.30 | −0.32 | −0.27 | −0.27 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.24 | −0.11 | −0.26 | −0.36 | −0.29 | −0.11 | −0.13 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Germany is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +66.6 | 66.7 | 0.1 | 75 | 1 | Resource Infrastructure 13.5 · Established |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +65.7 | 66.5 | 0.7 | 84 | 3 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.4 · Advanced |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Gainer | +64.3 | 71.9 | 7.6 | 82 | 4 | Artificial Intelligence 15.7 · Advanced |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +50.7 | 63.5 | 12.8 | 84 | 5 | Communications & Digital Infrastructure 16.4 · Advanced |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +41.5 | 41.9 | 0.4 | 79 | 4 | Energy Infrastructure 15 · Advanced |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Gainer | +33.4 | 38.8 | 5.4 | 84 | 8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 16.2 · Advanced |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +22.5 | 28.9 | 6.4 | 81 | 12 | Energy Infrastructure 15 · Advanced |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Gainer | +14.6 | 17.2 | 2.6 | 80 | 14 | Digital & AI Competence 15.5 · Advanced |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +14.5 | 17.7 | 3.2 | 82 | 29 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 15.5 · Advanced |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +1.3 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 78 | 80 | Energy Infrastructure 15 · Advanced |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Germany, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 16.4 Advanced → Established | 1.7% Possible · rank 147 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.6 | Energy Infrastructure 15 |
| Loss of financial stability | 17.1 Advanced → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 163 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×3.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 16 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 16.4 Advanced → Established | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 159 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×4.3 | Maritime Power 12.5 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 16.1 Advanced → Established | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 58 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.5 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 15.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 16.9 Advanced → Established | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 150 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 16 |
| Defence readiness failure | 13.5 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 30 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×4.3 | Maritime Power 12.5 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 16.9 Advanced → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 115 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.3 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 15.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 17.5 Advanced → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 136 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×3.1 | Maritime Power 12.5 |
| Collapse in energy security | 14.9 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 72 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Maritime Power 12.5 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 16.8 Advanced → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 78 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.3 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 15.3 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 16.9 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 52 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.3 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 15.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 17.2 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 77 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.3 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 15.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 17.5 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 106 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×4.2 | Maritime Power 12.5 |
| Health system failure | 16.3 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 151 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.4 |
| Rule of law failure | 16.2 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 164 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.3 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 15.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 12.6 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 48 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.1 | Maritime Power 12.5 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 16.3 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 80 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×4.1 | Maritime Power 12.5 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 17.2 Advanced → Established | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 87 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×5.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 16 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 17.7 Advanced → Established | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 103 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×5.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 16 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 16.8 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 78 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.7 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.4 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 16.7 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 42 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×5.2 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 15.3 |
| Food and water failure | 16.1 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 173 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×5.4 | Energy Infrastructure 15 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 16.6 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 45 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×5.8 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 15.3 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 8.8 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 23 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×4.0 | Maritime Power 12.5 |
| Education pipeline failure | 17.0 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 108 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×5.0 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.4 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 16.8 Advanced → Frontier | 26% Highly likely · rank 2 | Chronic disease advance Severe | ×0.9 | Communications & Digital Infrastructure 16.4 · reaches Frontier |
| Capable digital government | 16.2 Advanced → Advanced | 25% Likely · rank 1 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.0 | Artificial Intelligence 15.7 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 15.9 Advanced → Frontier | 24% Likely · rank 1 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×0.7 | Artificial Intelligence 15.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 16.7 Advanced → Frontier | 23% Likely · rank 2 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×0.9 | Artificial Intelligence 15.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 15.6 Advanced → Advanced | 22% Likely · rank 3 | Clean power threshold Severe | ×0.8 | Resource Infrastructure 13.5 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 16.4 Advanced → Advanced | 20% Likely · rank 4 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.1 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.4 |
| Trusted public institutions | 16.4 Advanced → Advanced | 20% Likely · rank 3 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.1 | Artificial Intelligence 15.7 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 17.7 Advanced → Frontier | 19% Likely · rank 1 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×0.9 | Artificial Intelligence 15.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Research translated into value | 17.6 Advanced → Frontier | 19% Likely · rank 2 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×0.9 | Artificial Intelligence 15.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 17.2 Advanced → Frontier | 16% Likely · rank 2 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.2 | Resource Infrastructure 13.5 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 17.5 Advanced → Frontier | 14% Likely · rank 4 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.4 · reaches Frontier |
| Sophisticated export strength | 17.8 Advanced → Frontier | 14% Likely · rank 5 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.3 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 16.2 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 16.3 Advanced → Frontier | 12% Likely · rank 3 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.3 | Artificial Intelligence 15.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Higher-value international business | 16.9 Advanced → Frontier | 11% Likely · rank 5 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.4 | Artificial Intelligence 15.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Secure food and water supply | 16.1 Advanced → Advanced | 10% Likely · rank 3 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.4 | Artificial Intelligence 15.7 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 16.8 Advanced → Frontier | 10% Likely · rank 6 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.4 · reaches Frontier |
| Assured space services | 15.2 Advanced → Advanced | 7.7% Likely · rank 2 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.4 | Artificial Intelligence 15.7 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 16.9 Advanced → Frontier | 6.0% Likely · rank 2 | Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.3 | Resource Infrastructure 13.5 · reaches Frontier |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 17.1 Advanced → Frontier | 5.6% Likely · rank 8 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.4 | Artificial Intelligence 15.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Deeper long-term finance | 17.0 Advanced → Frontier | 5.5% Likely · rank 1 | Clean power threshold Severe + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.2 | Resource Infrastructure 13.5 · reaches Frontier |
| Stronger information environment | 16.4 Advanced → Frontier | 4.0% Possible · rank 4 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.1 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.4 · reaches Frontier |
| Wider international influence | 17.2 Advanced → Frontier | 3.8% Possible · rank 4 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.4 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.4 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in national security | 12.6 Established → Established | 3.1% Possible · rank 6 | Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.4 | Artificial Intelligence 15.7 |
| More deployable joint force | 13.5 Established → Advanced | 3.1% Possible · rank 5 | Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.4 | Artificial Intelligence 15.7 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 16.8 Advanced → Frontier | 2.6% Possible · rank 4 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 16.4 · reaches Frontier |