Greece
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 12.5
- rank 149 of 197 · 3 years: 12.3
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +8.8
- rank 43 of 197 · 3 years: +9.0
- Shock absorbed
- 42%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.15
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 2of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Regional war spillover, Hybrid coercion. Highest exposure indicators: public debt relative to gdp; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; share of population aged 65 and over; few months of imports covered by reserves; internet users as a share of population; youth unemployment rate; urban share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Greece’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.86 | −0.79 | −1.33 | −0.58 | ▼ 1 | 22 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.9 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.83 | −0.75 | −1.23 | −0.54 | ▼ 1 | 22 | Artificial Intelligence 4.8 · Nascent |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.91 | −0.74 | −1.33 | −0.58 | 0 | 26 | Resource Infrastructure 8.5 · Foundational |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.87 | −0.71 | −1.10 | −0.48 | ▼ 1 | 23 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.7 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.90 | −0.62 | −1.12 | −0.49 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Investment Attraction & Projection 8.8 · Foundational |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.74 | −0.49 | −0.82 | −0.36 | ▼ 1 | 12 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.7 · Foundational |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.52 | −0.47 | −0.78 | −0.34 | ▲ 1 | 11 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.7 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.59 | −0.45 | −0.83 | −0.36 | ▲ 1 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 9.2 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.54 | −0.40 | −0.70 | −0.31 | ▲ 1 | 11 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7.7 · Foundational |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.39 | −0.33 | −0.62 | −0.27 | ▼ 1 | 9 | Energy Infrastructure 9.5 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic | −0.84 | −0.42 | −0.34 | −1.02 | −0.89 | −0.95 | −0.89 | −0.87 | −0.87 |
| AI labour shock | −0.84 | −0.38 | · | −1.01 | −0.89 | −1.05 | −0.89 | −0.87 | −0.87 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.42 | −0.99 | −0.91 | −0.38 | −0.38 | −0.95 | −0.88 | −0.76 | −0.97 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.92 | −0.50 | −0.92 | · | −1.12 | −1.05 | −0.98 | −0.42 | −0.48 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.37 | −0.41 | · | −0.41 | −0.37 | −0.84 | −1.36 | −0.95 | −0.85 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.36 | −0.80 | −0.80 | · | −0.88 | −0.91 | · | −0.33 | −0.33 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.61 | −0.24 | −0.21 | −0.24 | −0.55 | −0.53 | −0.55 | −0.54 | −0.74 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.67 | −0.22 | −0.54 | −0.24 | −0.60 | −0.64 | −0.55 | −0.55 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.23 | −0.26 | −0.47 | −0.23 | −0.55 | −0.76 | −0.62 | −0.23 | −0.27 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.17 | −0.41 | −0.14 | −0.38 | −0.36 | −0.39 | −0.42 | −0.31 | −0.36 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Greece is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +37.3 | 39.3 | 2.0 | 47 | 34 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 · Foundational |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +22.2 | 32.6 | 10.4 | 39 | 42 | Energy Technologies 5.4 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +21.7 | 28.7 | 7.0 | 55 | 35 | Energy Infrastructure 10.1 · Transitional |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | +8.5 | 25.3 | 16.8 | 30 | 35 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.7 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +6.9 | 22.1 | 15.2 | 55 | 45 | Technical & Vocational Skills 10 · Transitional |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +6.6 | 12.9 | 6.3 | 47 | 49 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 7.4 · Foundational |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +2.5 | 38.2 | 35.7 | 47 | 65 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | +1.5 | 16.1 | 14.6 | 37 | 44 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.7 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +0.8 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 55 | 88 | Energy Infrastructure 10.1 · Transitional |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −1.2 | 9.4 | 10.6 | 47 | 111 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 · Foundational |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Greece, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 12.5 Established → Transitional | 3.8% Possible · rank 49 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8.7 |
| Loss of financial stability | 12.2 Established → Foundational | 2.8% Possible · rank 45 | Global funding seizure Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Quantum Technologies 4.8 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 11.8 Transitional → Foundational | 2.6% Possible · rank 14 | Global funding seizure Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 4.8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 11.9 Transitional → Foundational | 2.2% Possible · rank 32 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Quantum Technologies 4.8 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 8.5 Foundational → Nascent | 1.6% Possible · rank 27 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Quantum Technologies 4.8 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 10.2 Transitional → Foundational | 1.4% Possible · rank 23 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 4.8 |
| Collapse in energy security | 8.5 Foundational → Nascent | 1.3% Possible · rank 21 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.4 | Resource Infrastructure 10 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 12.4 Established → Transitional | 1.1% Possible · rank 78 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Resource Infrastructure 10 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 11.9 Transitional → Foundational | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 30 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×3.1 | Resource Infrastructure 10 |
| Health system failure | 12.7 Established → Transitional | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 52 | Global funding seizure Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 |
| Rule of law failure | 11.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 61 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 4.8 |
| Broad fall in national security | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 8 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Resource Infrastructure 10 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 10.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 44 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 4.8 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 10.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 18 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 4.8 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 10.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 46 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 4.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 13.2 Established → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 17 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Resource Infrastructure 10 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 28 | Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9.8 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 10.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 21 | Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×3.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9.8 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 11.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 36 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Resource Infrastructure 10 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 12.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 19 | Global funding seizure Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Artificial Intelligence 6.3 |
| Food and water failure | 12.8 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 125 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8.7 |
| Education pipeline failure | 12.5 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 29 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 28 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Quantum Technologies 4.8 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 23 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Quantum Technologies 4.8 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 5.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 19 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.0 | Resource Infrastructure 10 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 10.9 Transitional → Established | 6.6% Likely · rank 34 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 7.8 Foundational → Transitional | 3.1% Possible · rank 32 | Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.5 | Energy Technologies 5.4 |
| Capable digital government | 12.2 Established → Established | 2.4% Possible · rank 37 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 11.9 Transitional → Established | 1.9% Possible · rank 36 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 |
| Trusted public institutions | 11.4 Transitional → Established | 1.2% Possible · rank 42 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 5.0 Nascent → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 36 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×2.0 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.7 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 5.6 Nascent → Foundational | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 36 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 |
| Research translated into value | 10.3 Transitional → Transitional | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 35 | Clean power threshold Severe + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.7 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 12.0 Transitional → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 41 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 8.5 Foundational → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 35 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 |
| Stronger information environment | 10.3 Transitional → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 32 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 11.5 Transitional → Established | 0.2% Remote · rank 42 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 11.8 Transitional → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 38 | Clean power threshold Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 10.5 Transitional → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 40 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.4 | Energy Technologies 5.4 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 11.9 Transitional → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 46 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 |
| Higher-value international business | 11.2 Transitional → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 44 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.5 | Technical & Vocational Skills 10 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 11.4 Transitional → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 44 | Great-power détente Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.5 | Energy Technologies 5.4 |
| Wider international influence | 10.5 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 39 | Great-power détente Severe + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×2.1 | Energy Infrastructure 10.1 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 10.4 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 38 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 |
| Secure food and water supply | 12.8 Established → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 53 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 10.6 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 46 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.4 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 11.4 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 43 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.5 | Energy Technologies 5.4 |
| Broad rise in national security | 9.9 Transitional | — No route · rank 43 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Assured space services | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 44 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 12.6 Established | — No route · rank 42 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |