Grenada
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 36.1
- rank 50 of 197 · 3 years: 35.9
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −11.4
- rank 139 of 197 · 3 years: −11.2
- Shock absorbed
- 18%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.30
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Global funding seizure, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; public debt relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Grenada’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.83 | −0.90 | −1.04 | −0.48 | ▼ 5 | 19 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.71 | −0.80 | −0.98 | −0.44 | ▼ 3 | 18 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.81 | −0.76 | −0.96 | −0.43 | ▼ 5 | 14 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1.4 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.66 | −0.73 | −0.89 | −0.40 | ▼ 3 | 15 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.60 | −0.71 | −0.88 | −0.39 | ▼ 5 | 14 | Energy Infrastructure 2 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.66 | −0.63 | −0.70 | −0.33 | ▼ 1 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.70 | −0.62 | −0.82 | −0.37 | ▲ 2 | 13 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.55 | −0.61 | −0.72 | −0.32 | ▼ 2 | 14 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.60 | −0.61 | −0.82 | −0.36 | ▼ 1 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 2 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.34 | −0.31 | −0.35 | −0.15 | 0 | 3 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.19 | −1.21 | −0.68 | −0.53 | −0.53 | −1.32 | −1.23 | −1.05 | −1.36 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.21 | −0.47 | −0.30 | −1.16 | −1.01 | −1.08 | −1.01 | −0.99 | −0.99 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.18 | −0.51 | · | −0.53 | −0.47 | −1.07 | −1.74 | −1.22 | −1.08 |
| AI labour shock | −0.21 | −0.40 | · | −1.09 | −0.95 | −1.12 | −0.95 | −0.93 | −0.93 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.16 | −0.89 | −0.25 | −0.87 | −0.83 | −0.89 | −0.95 | −0.71 | −0.81 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.21 | −0.51 | −0.69 | · | −1.17 | −1.10 | −1.02 | −0.44 | −0.50 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.17 | −0.42 | −0.58 | −0.39 | −0.91 | −1.27 | −1.04 | −0.39 | −0.45 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.20 | −0.35 | −0.25 | −0.35 | −0.82 | −0.79 | −0.82 | −0.81 | −1.11 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.90 | −0.23 | −0.74 | −0.33 | −0.83 | −0.89 | −0.76 | −0.76 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.13 | −0.52 | −0.44 | · | −0.59 | −0.61 | · | −0.22 | −0.22 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Grenada is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +5.9 | 8.2 | 2.3 | 12 | 103 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +2.4 | 9.1 | 6.7 | 14 | 129 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +0.3 | 7.9 | 7.6 | 26 | 92 | Energy Infrastructure 3.4 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −2.4 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 18 | 134 | Intelligence & Assessment 1.8 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −6.5 | 13.5 | 19.9 | 21 | 94 | Investment Attraction & Projection 3.3 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −9.0 | 9.7 | 18.7 | 16 | 121 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −15.5 | 7.5 | 23.0 | 13 | 174 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −18.2 | 4.9 | 23.2 | 9 | 156 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −21.2 | 2.3 | 23.6 | 5 | 104 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −26.0 | 10.7 | 36.6 | 15 | 189 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Grenada, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 4.7% Possible · rank 10 | Global funding seizure Extreme | ×1.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.4 |
| Breakdown of state function | 8.3 Foundational → Nascent | 3.3% Possible · rank 66 | Global funding seizure Major + Regional war spillover Extreme | ×1.9 | Resource Infrastructure 1.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 2.2% Possible · rank 20 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×1.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.4 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | 1.8% Possible · rank 61 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 1.5% Possible · rank 39 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.6 | Resource Infrastructure 1.3 |
| Health system failure | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 49 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 43 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Resource Infrastructure 1.3 |
| Food and water failure | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 58 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.4 |
| Rule of law failure | 7.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 110 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 28 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.4 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 47 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.4 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 55 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 |
| Education pipeline failure | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 40 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 159 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 143 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Resource Infrastructure 1.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 140 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×14 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 142 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.3 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×2.6 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 140 | Already at the foot of the scale | — | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 146 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 2.6 of 3 | ×3.4 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 151 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.6 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 140 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 142 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.7 | — |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | — Remote · rank 168 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.5 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×17 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.4 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 7.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.0 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.4 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.9 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×18 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.2 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Capable digital government | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Research translated into value | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.4 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |