Guatemala
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 19.6
- rank 112 of 197 · 3 years: 19.3
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −5.9
- rank 98 of 197 · 3 years: −5.6
- Shock absorbed
- 24%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.21
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; remittances relative to gdp; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Guatemala’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.81 | −0.81 | −1.13 | −0.49 | ▼ 2 | 23 | Financial System Depth & Access 5.1 · Nascent |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.67 | −0.76 | −0.97 | −0.43 | ▲ 2 | 18 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0.1 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.60 | −0.68 | −0.87 | −0.39 | ▲ 2 | 14 | Artificial Intelligence 0.9 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.56 | −0.66 | −0.86 | −0.38 | ▲ 4 | 15 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.9 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.65 | −0.63 | −0.84 | −0.37 | 0 | 16 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.9 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.59 | −0.63 | −0.74 | −0.33 | ▲ 2 | 14 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.5 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.43 | −0.47 | −0.62 | −0.28 | ▲ 4 | 12 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.42 | −0.38 | −0.53 | −0.23 | ▲ 5 | 11 | Labour & Employment 4.8 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.28 | −0.32 | −0.44 | −0.19 | ▲ 5 | 11 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.4 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.33 | −0.29 | −0.36 | −0.16 | ▲ 4 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.21 | −0.39 | −0.96 | −0.43 | −1.08 | −1.16 | −0.99 | −0.99 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.41 | −1.01 | −0.93 | −0.39 | −0.39 | −0.97 | −0.91 | −0.78 | −1.00 |
| AI labour shock | −0.70 | −0.35 | · | −0.92 | −0.81 | −0.95 | −0.81 | −0.79 | −0.79 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.66 | −0.36 | −0.29 | −0.86 | −0.75 | −0.81 | −0.75 | −0.74 | −0.74 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.35 | −0.40 | −0.73 | −0.37 | −0.85 | −1.19 | −0.97 | −0.37 | −0.42 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.75 | −0.45 | −0.83 | · | −1.01 | −0.94 | −0.88 | −0.38 | −0.43 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.56 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.24 | −0.57 | −0.55 | −0.57 | −0.55 | −0.76 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.23 | −0.25 | · | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.52 | −0.84 | −0.59 | −0.52 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.17 | −0.40 | −0.14 | −0.38 | −0.36 | −0.39 | −0.41 | −0.31 | −0.35 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.21 | −0.47 | −0.47 | · | −0.52 | −0.54 | · | −0.20 | −0.20 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Guatemala is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +11.9 | 13.9 | 2.0 | 19 | 74 | Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +4.3 | 10.6 | 6.3 | 21 | 109 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +1.5 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 28 | 111 | Intelligence & Assessment 4.7 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −0.3 | 6.4 | 6.7 | 33 | 99 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −4.3 | 14.8 | 19.1 | 21 | 96 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −5.6 | 17.0 | 22.7 | 31 | 91 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 5.3 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −6.7 | 14.1 | 20.8 | 22 | 112 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −10.4 | 8.3 | 18.7 | 21 | 149 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −16.6 | 6.2 | 22.9 | 17 | 140 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −21.4 | 4.4 | 25.8 | 10 | 107 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Guatemala, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.2% Possible · rank 169 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.2% Possible · rank 145 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 169 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 123 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.2 | Maritime Power 3 |
| Health system failure | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 106 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 163 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 167 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 87 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.8 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 148 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.3 |
| Food and water failure | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 118 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.8 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 149 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Maritime Power 3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 6.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 126 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.8 |
| Collapse in energy security | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 111 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 3 |
| Defence readiness failure | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 72 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 144 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.8 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 144 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 156 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 180 | Core disaster Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Artificial Intelligence 2.3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 182 | Core disaster Extreme + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×3.5 | Financial System Depth & Access 6.8 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 109 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.0 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 115 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×3.2 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 109 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.4 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×3.0 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 109 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.9 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 114 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 7.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.0 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.2 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 109 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 7.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Wider international influence | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Capable digital government | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 110 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Research translated into value | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 7.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 108 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |