Africa · GNB

Guinea-Bissau

Baseline index 2.08Rank 188 of 197InceptionAfricaAtlas profileAll results

Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years: 59.0; rank 15 of 197 · 3 years: 58.8
Worst case: −41.8%; Breadbasket failure · tail −39.0%
Opportunity · 10 years: −10.3; rank 129 of 197 · 3 years: −10.3
Best case: +2; Clean power threshold · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed: 9%; by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend: +0.28; expected index points from best practice
Breadth: 10of 10; scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest link: Energy Infrastructure; weakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Regional war spillover, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; share of population aged under 15; low real gdp per head; low life expectancy at birth; remittances relative to gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Guinea-Bissau’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

ScenarioChange in index, points

Breadbasket failure (S06)

Regional war spillover (S03)

Legitimacy rupture (S05)

Global funding seizure (S02)

Severe pandemic (S10)

AI labour shock (S08)

Core disaster (S07)

Cryptographic trust break (S09)

Trade bloc rupture (S01)

Hybrid coercion (S04)

−0.87

−0.80

−0.76

−0.65

−0.60

−0.55

−0.48

−0.47

−0.29

−0.26

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Breadbasket failure S06	High 0.66	−0.87	−0.97	−0.43	▼ 1	19	Energy Infrastructure 0.4 · Inception
Regional war spillover S03	High 0.68	−0.80	−0.87	−0.40	▲ 2	15	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Legitimacy rupture S05	High 0.72	−0.76	−0.84	−0.38	▼ 1	16	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
Global funding seizure S02	High 0.62	−0.65	−0.73	−0.32	▼ 1	15	Economic Output & Productivity 0.4 · Inception
Severe pandemic S10	Medium 0.48	−0.60	−0.66	−0.29	▲ 2	16	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
AI labour shock S08	Medium 0.45	−0.55	−0.60	−0.27	▲ 3	15	Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception
Core disaster S07	Medium 0.39	−0.48	−0.54	−0.24	▲ 2	15	Energy Infrastructure 1.1 · Inception
Cryptographic trust break S09	Medium 0.46	−0.47	−0.49	−0.23	▲ 3	13	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Trade bloc rupture S01	Low 0.24	−0.29	−0.32	−0.14	▲ 4	8	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Hybrid coercion S04	Low 0.27	−0.26	−0.28	−0.12	▲ 2	11	Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT Critical Technology	SI Strategic Infrastructure	NS National Security	HC Human Capital	II Information & Influence	GI Governance & Integrity	FS Financial Strength	PI Production & Innovation	TI Trade & Investment
Breadbasket failure	−0.11	−1.11	−0.33	−1.07	−1.03	−1.10	−1.17	−0.88	−1.01
Regional war spillover	−0.11	−1.10	−0.71	−0.46	−0.46	−1.16	−1.08	−0.93	−1.19
Legitimacy rupture	−0.11	−0.53	−0.74	−0.49	−1.03	−1.58	−1.29	−0.49	−0.55
Global funding seizure	−0.11	−0.45	·	−0.46	−0.41	−0.92	−1.51	−1.06	−0.94
Severe pandemic	−0.11	−0.36	−0.25	−0.86	−0.75	−0.81	−0.75	−0.74	−0.74
AI labour shock	−0.11	−0.31	·	−0.82	−0.72	−0.85	−0.72	−0.71	−0.71
Core disaster	−0.02	−0.72	−0.21	−0.57	−0.26	−0.64	−0.69	−0.59	−0.59
Cryptographic trust break	−0.11	−0.39	−0.55	·	−0.88	−0.82	−0.77	−0.33	−0.38
Trade bloc rupture	−0.11	−0.17	−0.13	−0.17	−0.39	−0.37	−0.39	−0.38	−0.52
Hybrid coercion	−0.09	−0.45	−0.39	·	−0.50	−0.51	·	−0.19	−0.19

Smaller to larger fall

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Guinea-Bissau is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Clean power threshold S15 ↗	Mixed	+2.4	4.4	2.0	6	123	Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗	Mixed	+0.5	4.9	4.4	7	101	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Debt service reset S11 ↗	Mixed	−0.1	8.6	8.7	13	98	Energy Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception
Middle East settlement S14 ↗	Mixed	−1.9	4.7	6.6	12	133	Intelligence & Assessment 1.7 · Inception
Chronic disease advance S19 ↗	Mixed	−5.4	2.4	7.9	8	107	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Great-power détente S13 ↗	Loser	−12.7	1.1	13.8	6	108	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗	Loser	−13.7	3.0	16.7	7	191	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Market access opening S12 ↗	Loser	−18.8	7.3	26.0	11	155	Investment Attraction & Projection 2 · Inception
Public service leap S18 ↗	Loser	−22.7	6.9	29.6	7	187	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Automated discovery step S17 ↗	Loser	−28.9	0.8	29.7	2	149	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Guinea-Bissau, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.

Routes to failure	Basket	Likelihood	Most likely route	Headroom	Lever
Breakdown of state function	3.6 Nascent → Inception	1.9% Possible · rank 138	Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe	×1.8	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.3
Loss of financial stability	3.0 Nascent → Inception	1.8% Possible · rank 100	Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe	×1.8	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2
Food and water failure	3.3 Nascent → Inception	0.8% Unlikely · rank 50	Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Extreme	×1.7	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2
Health system failure	3.5 Nascent → Inception	0.4% Unlikely · rank 115	Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×2.3	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2
Broad fall in governance and integrity	3.2 Nascent → Inception	0.4% Unlikely · rank 176	Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail	×1.9	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.3
Education pipeline failure	3.1 Nascent → Inception	under 0.1% Remote · rank 106	Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extreme	×2.7	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2
Broad fall in critical technology	0.1 Inception	— No route · rank 188	Already at the foot of the scale	×27	—
Broad fall in strategic infrastructure	2.4 Inception	— No route · rank 188	Already at the foot of the scale	×2.7	—
Broad fall in national security	1.0 Inception	— No route · rank 188	Already at the foot of the scale	×4.0	—
Broad fall in human capital	2.7 Inception	— No route · rank 189	Already at the foot of the scale	×2.8	—
Broad fall in information and influence	2.1 Inception	— No route · rank 189	Already at the foot of the scale	×2.9	—
Broad fall in financial strength	2.9 Inception	— No route · rank 188	Already at the foot of the scale	×2.0	—
Broad fall in production and innovation	1.9 Inception	— No route · rank 188	Already at the foot of the scale	×2.8	—
Broad fall in trade and investment	2.3 Inception	— No route · rank 188	Already at the foot of the scale	×2.5	—
Loss of advanced technology base	0.0 Inception	— No route · rank 188	Already at the foot of the scale	—	—
Collapse in energy security	1.2 Inception	— No route · rank 188	Already at the foot of the scale	×2.7	—
Failure of digital lifelines	2.2 Inception	— No route · rank 188	Already at the foot of the scale	×4.0	—
Defence readiness failure	1.5 Inception	— No route · rank 190	Already at the foot of the scale	×2.9	—
Loss of strategic deterrence	0.2 Inception	— No route · rank 188	Already at the foot of the scale	×13	—
Strategic awareness failure	0.8 Inception	— No route · rank 188	Already at the foot of the scale	×4.5	—
Breakdown of information trust	2.0 Inception	— No route · rank 189	Already at the foot of the scale	×2.1	—
Diplomatic isolation	2.3 Inception	— No route · rank 189	Already at the foot of the scale	×2.6	—
Rule of law failure	2.8 Inception	— No route · rank 190	Already at the foot of the scale	×1.9	—
Loss of industrial capacity	2.1 Inception	— No route · rank 188	Already at the foot of the scale	×2.6	—
Rupture in trade and supply	2.7 Inception	— No route · rank 188	Already at the foot of the scale	×1.9	—

Routes to prosperity	Basket	Likelihood	Most likely route	Headroom	Lever
Broad rise in critical technology	0.1 Inception	— No route · rank 188	No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5	×13	—
Broad rise in strategic infrastructure	2.4 Inception	— No route · rank 188	No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5	×11	—
Broad rise in national security	1.0 Inception	— No route · rank 188	No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5	×19	—
Broad rise in human capital	2.7 Inception	— No route · rank 188	No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5	×9.5	—
Broad rise in information and influence	2.1 Inception	— No route · rank 188	No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5	×14	—
Broad rise in governance and integrity	3.2 Nascent	— No route · rank 188	No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5	×8.5	—
Broad rise in financial strength	2.9 Inception	— No route · rank 188	No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5	×8.7	—
Broad rise in production and innovation	1.9 Inception	— No route · rank 188	No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5	×14	—
Broad rise in trade and investment	2.3 Inception	— No route · rank 188	No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5	×8.7	—
Assured space services	0.3 Inception	— No route · rank 188	No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5	×19	—
Frontier AI and compute	0.2 Inception	— No route · rank 188	No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5	×14	—
Higher-value manufacturing	0.9 Inception	— No route · rank 188	No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5	×17	—
Reliable low-cost energy	1.2 Inception	— No route · rank 188	No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5	×9.3	—
Secure food and water supply	3.3 Nascent	— No route · rank 188	No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5	×10	—
More deployable joint force	1.4 Inception	— No route · rank 188	No route found · closest 0.1 of 1.5	×21	—
Adaptable skilled workforce	2.2 Inception	— No route · rank 188	No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5	×11	—
Stronger health and biotechnology	2.4 Inception	— No route · rank 188	No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5	×12	—
Stronger information environment	1.9 Inception	— No route · rank 188	No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5	×14	—
Wider international influence	2.3 Inception	— No route · rank 188	No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5	×13	—
Capable digital government	2.8 Inception	— No route · rank 188	No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5	×7.3	—
Trusted public institutions	2.7 Inception	— No route · rank 188	No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5	×7.3	—
Deeper long-term finance	2.7 Inception	— No route · rank 188	No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5	×9.3	—
Research translated into value	1.3 Inception	— No route · rank 188	No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5	×14	—
Higher-value international business	1.9 Inception	— No route · rank 188	No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5	×8.2	—
Sophisticated export strength	2.5 Inception	— No route · rank 188	No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5	×10	—