Holy See
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Acute fragility. Every scenario is severe; there is little capability left to lose. One of 14 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 77.4
- rank 6 of 197 · 3 years: 76.7
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −24.6
- rank 184 of 197 · 3 years: −24.5
- Shock absorbed
- 7%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.28
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Hybrid coercion, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: urban share of population; no coastline; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Holy See’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.93 | −0.74 | −0.76 | −0.42 | ▼ 1 | 8 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 1.00 | −0.74 | −0.80 | −0.44 | 0 | 9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.94 | −0.67 | −0.69 | −0.36 | ▼ 1 | 8 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 1.00 | −0.65 | −0.72 | −0.38 | ▼ 2 | 7 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 1.00 | −0.65 | −0.68 | −0.38 | ▲ 2 | 8 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 1.00 | −0.61 | −0.64 | −0.35 | 0 | 6 | Financial Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.60 | −0.56 | −0.59 | −0.30 | ▲ 5 | 8 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.77 | −0.47 | −0.51 | −0.26 | 0 | 10 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.60 | −0.47 | −0.55 | −0.27 | ▲ 4 | 7 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.55 | −0.46 | −0.50 | −0.26 | ▲ 3 | 5 | Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock | −0.09 | −0.38 | · | −1.00 | −1.54 | −1.61 | −1.26 | −0.21 | −0.53 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.09 | −0.45 | −0.23 | −0.90 | −1.56 | −1.59 | −1.27 | −0.21 | −0.37 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.09 | −0.51 | −0.28 | · | −1.79 | −1.64 | −1.12 | −0.21 | −0.37 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.09 | −0.38 | −0.23 | −0.52 | −1.54 | −1.44 | −1.10 | −0.21 | −0.37 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.09 | −0.70 | −0.28 | −0.55 | −0.71 | −1.66 | −1.29 | −0.21 | −0.38 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.09 | −0.45 | · | −0.62 | −0.70 | −1.52 | −1.51 | −0.21 | −0.38 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.09 | −0.55 | −0.16 | −0.70 | −0.98 | −1.05 | −0.98 | −0.21 | −0.30 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.09 | −0.61 | −0.28 | · | −1.37 | −1.41 | · | −0.21 | −0.25 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.09 | −0.26 | −0.24 | −0.32 | −0.88 | −1.16 | −0.91 | −0.16 | −0.23 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.60 | −0.15 | −0.65 | −0.37 | −0.93 | −0.90 | −0.21 | −0.28 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Holy See is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +4.2 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 8 | 113 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −0.4 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 12 | 126 | Energy Infrastructure 0.5 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | −1.5 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3 | 136 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −10.2 | 3.2 | 13.4 | 8 | 129 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Loser | −15.6 | 0.3 | 15.9 | 7 | 197 | Foundational Education 0.3 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −23.2 | 0.9 | 24.1 | 4 | 194 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −26.8 | 3.8 | 30.6 | 6 | 176 | Global Value Chain Position 0 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −30.1 | 1.9 | 32.0 | 4 | 187 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 0 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −39.2 | 5.0 | 44.2 | 6 | 197 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −42.7 | 1.8 | 44.5 | 2 | 190 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Holy See, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad fall in information and influence | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 6.0% Likely · rank 1 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severe | ×1.7 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 7.4 Foundational → Nascent | 5.7% Likely · rank 1 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severe | ×1.7 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 5.2% Likely · rank 1 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severe | ×1.7 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Breakdown of state function | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | 3.8% Possible · rank 47 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Extreme | ×1.6 | Energy Infrastructure 0.5 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | 3.1% Possible · rank 11 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×1.8 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Rule of law failure | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 2.6% Possible · rank 4 | Regional war spillover Major + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×1.7 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×32 | — |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.3 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×11 | — |
| Broad fall in human capital | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.0 | — |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×14 | — |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.6 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | Already at the foot of the scale | — | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.9 | — |
| Food and water failure | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 194 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.6 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 193 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×18 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×27 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.9 | — |
| Education pipeline failure | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.9 | — |
| Health system failure | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 193 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Loss of financial stability | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×12 | — |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×9.0 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×21 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 7.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 192 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 192 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.4 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×17 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×23 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 7.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 192 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×9.7 | — |
| Wider international influence | 8.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 192 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Capable digital government | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.7 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 192 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×21 | — |
| Research translated into value | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 192 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |