India
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 7.7
- rank 178 of 197 · 3 years: 7.6
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +18.5
- rank 29 of 197 · 3 years: +19.1
- Shock absorbed
- 46%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.08
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 2of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Labour & Employment
- weakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Regional war spillover, Breadbasket failure. Highest exposure indicators: earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; low life expectancy at birth.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in India’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.85 | −0.72 | −1.26 | −0.55 | 0 | 19 | Labour & Employment 6.8 · Foundational |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.80 | −0.62 | −1.12 | −0.49 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Health System Capability 9 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.80 | −0.60 | −1.05 | −0.46 | ▼ 1 | 19 | Internal Security & Order 8.6 · Foundational |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.70 | −0.50 | −1.03 | −0.45 | ▲ 1 | 16 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 10.4 · Transitional |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.53 | −0.43 | −0.82 | −0.36 | 0 | 15 | Labour & Employment 7.4 · Foundational |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.56 | −0.41 | −0.72 | −0.32 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 9.8 · Transitional |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.47 | −0.40 | −0.74 | −0.32 | 0 | 15 | Population Health 7.6 · Foundational |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.40 | −0.32 | −0.60 | −0.26 | 0 | 10 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.4 · Foundational |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.49 | −0.32 | −0.61 | −0.27 | 0 | 12 | Labour & Employment 7.5 · Foundational |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.44 | −0.25 | −0.49 | −0.22 | ▲ 1 | 6 | Internal Security & Order 9.3 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock | −0.79 | −0.36 | · | −0.96 | −0.84 | −0.99 | −0.84 | −0.83 | −0.83 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.92 | −0.33 | −0.73 | −0.33 | −0.82 | −0.88 | −0.75 | −0.75 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.34 | −0.38 | −0.76 | −0.34 | −0.80 | −1.12 | −0.92 | −0.34 | −0.39 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.28 | −0.66 | −0.66 | −0.25 | −0.25 | −0.63 | −0.59 | −0.51 | −0.65 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.46 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.55 | −0.48 | −0.52 | −0.48 | −0.47 | −0.47 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.52 | −0.28 | −0.57 | · | −0.63 | −0.59 | −0.55 | −0.24 | −0.27 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.21 | −0.50 | −0.19 | −0.47 | −0.45 | −0.48 | −0.51 | −0.38 | −0.44 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.41 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.37 | −0.36 | −0.37 | −0.36 | −0.50 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.19 | −0.21 | · | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.43 | −0.70 | −0.49 | −0.44 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.18 | −0.39 | −0.43 | · | −0.44 | −0.45 | · | −0.16 | −0.16 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what India is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +31.3 | 40.6 | 9.3 | 54 | 31 | Technical & Vocational Skills 9 · Transitional |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +29.3 | 31.1 | 1.8 | 53 | 2 | Technical & Vocational Skills 9 · Transitional |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +24.2 | 28.0 | 3.7 | 56 | 54 | Health System Capability 10.3 · Transitional |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +23.3 | 29.2 | 5.9 | 57 | 31 | Internal Security & Order 10 · Transitional |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Gainer | +22.7 | 38.7 | 16.0 | 55 | 3 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 · Transitional |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +16.3 | 30.7 | 14.4 | 55 | 22 | Technical & Vocational Skills 9 · Transitional |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +9.7 | 25.8 | 16.0 | 57 | 50 | Health System Capability 10.3 · Transitional |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | +8.9 | 34.6 | 25.6 | 53 | 33 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9 · Transitional |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +7.8 | 14.7 | 6.9 | 53 | 24 | Foundational Education 9.5 · Transitional |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −1.4 | 17.4 | 18.8 | 54 | 50 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9 · Transitional |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for India, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 11.6 Transitional → Foundational | 1.8% Possible · rank 144 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 |
| Loss of financial stability | 13.5 Established → Transitional | 1.2% Possible · rank 140 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 11.1 Transitional → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 116 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.7 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 12.6 Established → Transitional | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 52 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.6 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 13.1 Established → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 132 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 |
| Rule of law failure | 10.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 149 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 |
| Food and water failure | 12.0 Established → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 80 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Health System Capability 10.3 |
| Health system failure | 9.3 Transitional → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 142 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Health System Capability 10.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 12.7 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 152 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Health System Capability 10.3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 14.1 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 104 | Legitimacy rupture Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 9 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 13.9 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 98 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Health System Capability 10.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 14.3 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Remote · rank 99 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Majorplans fail | ×3.5 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 11.4 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 10.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 54 | Legitimacy rupture Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 9 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 13.0 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Remote · rank 145 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 9 |
| Defence readiness failure | 14.7 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 66 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 12.3 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 137 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Health System Capability 10.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 11.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 124 | Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 9 |
| Broad fall in national security | 14.2 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 63 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 14.3 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 9 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×4.4 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 13.7 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 135 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×4.2 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 9 |
| Education pipeline failure | 9.8 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 94 | Breadbasket failure Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 9 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 13.5 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 93 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Quantum Technologies 10.5 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 12.5 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 54 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 9 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 11.9 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 52 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×4.2 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 9 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 14.2 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 109 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.7 | Quantum Technologies 10.5 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capable digital government | 12.6 Established → Established | 6.1% Likely · rank 26 | Water-efficient food leap Major + Public service leap Severe | ×1.3 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 |
| Trusted public institutions | 10.7 Transitional → Established | 5.2% Likely · rank 24 | Water-efficient food leap Major + Public service leap Severe | ×1.3 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 13.8 Established → Advanced | 4.4% Possible · rank 20 | Market access opening Major + Clean power threshold Severe | ×1.2 | Technical & Vocational Skills 9 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 11.1 Transitional → Established | 3.4% Possible · rank 29 | Water-efficient food leap Severe + Public service leap Severe | ×1.6 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 10.5 Transitional → Established | 3.1% Possible · rank 27 | Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9 |
| Research translated into value | 11.4 Transitional → Established | 2.3% Possible · rank 25 | Clean power threshold Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.7 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 13.9 Established → Advanced | 1.7% Possible · rank 27 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Major | ×2.0 | Technical & Vocational Skills 9 |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 10.9 Transitional → Established | 1.7% Possible · rank 53 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.1 | Health System Capability 10.3 |
| Secure food and water supply | 12.0 Established → Established | 1.7% Possible · rank 22 | Clean power threshold Severe + Water-efficient food leap Severe | ×1.6 | Technical & Vocational Skills 9 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 12.5 Established → Established | 1.4% Possible · rank 29 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 13.0 Established → Established | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 30 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Major | ×2.1 | Technical & Vocational Skills 9 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 11.7 Transitional → Established | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 28 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.9 | Technical & Vocational Skills 9 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 12.4 Established → Established | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 27 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9 |
| Higher-value international business | 13.3 Established → Established | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 28 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Major | ×1.9 | Technical & Vocational Skills 9 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 9.3 Transitional → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 27 | Water-efficient food leap Severe + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.3 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 12.8 Established → Established | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 32 | Market access opening Severe + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.4 | Technical & Vocational Skills 9 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 13.4 Established → Established | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 25 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Severe | ×2.0 | Technical & Vocational Skills 9 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 10.0 Transitional → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 37 | Water-efficient food leap Severe + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.3 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 13.1 Established → Established | 0.2% Remote · rank 35 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×2.1 | Technical & Vocational Skills 9 |
| Wider international influence | 13.7 Established → Advanced | under 0.1% Remote · rank 37 | Great-power détente Severe + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×2.0 | Internal Security & Order 10 |
| Assured space services | 15.0 Established → Advanced | under 0.1% Remote · rank 27 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 14.1 Established → Advanced | under 0.1% Remote · rank 41 | Public service leap Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 |
| Stronger information environment | 14.5 Established → Advanced | under 0.1% Remote · rank 47 | Public service leap Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 |
| Broad rise in national security | 14.2 Established → Advanced | under 0.1% Remote · rank 26 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9 |
| More deployable joint force | 14.4 Established → Advanced | under 0.1% Remote · rank 25 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9 |