Indonesia
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 10.6
- rank 160 of 197 · 3 years: 10.4
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −1.6
- rank 74 of 197 · 3 years: −1.5
- Shock absorbed
- 39%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.13
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 3of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Hybrid coercion, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; industry as a share of gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Indonesia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.92 | −0.75 | −1.28 | −0.56 | ▼ 2 | 21 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 8 · Foundational |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.75 | −0.68 | −0.95 | −0.42 | 0 | 18 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.8 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.68 | −0.64 | −1.02 | −0.44 | 0 | 17 | Artificial Intelligence 5.7 · Nascent |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.60 | −0.56 | −0.93 | −0.41 | ▲ 1 | 16 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.5 · Foundational |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.61 | −0.52 | −0.90 | −0.40 | 0 | 17 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.3 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.68 | −0.47 | −0.75 | −0.33 | 0 | 15 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.8 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.56 | −0.44 | −0.73 | −0.32 | ▼ 1 | 13 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8.6 · Foundational |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Medium 0.43 | −0.35 | −0.63 | −0.27 | ▲ 2 | 9 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 5.3 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.38 | −0.27 | −0.47 | −0.21 | ▲ 2 | 7 | Labour & Employment 8.4 · Foundational |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.29 | −0.27 | −0.46 | −0.20 | 0 | 8 | Population Health 8.2 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.12 | −0.36 | −0.89 | −0.40 | −1.00 | −1.07 | −0.92 | −0.92 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.88 | −0.48 | −0.88 | · | −1.07 | −1.00 | −0.93 | −0.40 | −0.46 |
| AI labour shock | −0.71 | −0.32 | · | −0.86 | −0.75 | −0.89 | −0.75 | −0.74 | −0.74 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.60 | −0.30 | −0.24 | −0.73 | −0.64 | −0.68 | −0.64 | −0.62 | −0.62 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.68 | −0.26 | −0.24 | −0.26 | −0.61 | −0.59 | −0.61 | −0.60 | −0.82 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.35 | −0.76 | −0.76 | · | −0.85 | −0.87 | · | −0.32 | −0.32 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.26 | −0.28 | −0.51 | −0.26 | −0.60 | −0.83 | −0.68 | −0.26 | −0.29 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.20 | −0.47 | −0.43 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.45 | −0.42 | −0.36 | −0.47 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.16 | −0.18 | · | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.36 | −0.59 | −0.41 | −0.36 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.14 | −0.33 | −0.12 | −0.31 | −0.30 | −0.32 | −0.34 | −0.26 | −0.29 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Indonesia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +25.1 | 27.2 | 2.1 | 48 | 53 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.6 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Gainer | +12.6 | 24.7 | 12.1 | 42 | 23 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.4 · Foundational |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +9.8 | 18.4 | 8.6 | 47 | 41 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.6 · Foundational |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +5.2 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 51 | 35 | Energy Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +0.4 | 23.3 | 23.0 | 48 | 77 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.6 · Foundational |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +0.3 | 25.3 | 25.0 | 50 | 67 | Technical & Vocational Skills 9 · Transitional |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | −5.3 | 19.6 | 24.8 | 28 | 56 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.3 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −5.8 | 16.8 | 22.6 | 35 | 69 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.3 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −9.8 | 14.6 | 24.4 | 51 | 162 | Energy Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −20.2 | 22.1 | 42.3 | 43 | 165 | Energy Technologies 6.8 · Foundational |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Indonesia, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 11.1 Transitional → Foundational | 2.3% Possible · rank 109 | Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Health System Capability 10.3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 10.6 Transitional → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 115 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Health System Capability 10.3 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 60 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 2.8 |
| Loss of financial stability | 12.1 Established → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 172 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Health System Capability 10.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 10.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 88 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.8 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 8 |
| Rule of law failure | 10.1 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 119 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 2.8 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 10.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 68 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.8 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 8 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 11.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 45 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Health System Capability 10.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 10.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 63 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.8 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 8 |
| Food and water failure | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 70 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Health System Capability 10.3 |
| Health system failure | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 129 | Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Health System Capability 10.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 11.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 138 | Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Health System Capability 10.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 11.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 171 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Health System Capability 10.3 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 10.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 49 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.8 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 8 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 11.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 125 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Health System Capability 10.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 10.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 91 | Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Health System Capability 10.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 11.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 100 | Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Health System Capability 10.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 8.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 60 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.4 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 11.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 69 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.8 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 8 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 10.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 129 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Health System Capability 10.3 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 36 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Quantum Technologies 2.8 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 46 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Quantum Technologies 2.8 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 138 | Core disaster Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×3.4 | Health System Capability 10.3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 9.8 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 157 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Health System Capability 10.3 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 55 | No route found · closest 2.3 of 3 | ×5.6 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capable digital government | 10.7 Transitional → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 63 | Market access opening Severe + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.0 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.4 |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 9.2 Transitional → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 65 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.6 |
| Trusted public institutions | 10.0 Transitional → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 58 | Market access opening Severe + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.0 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.4 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 8.2 Foundational → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 51 | Market access opening Severe + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.3 | Energy Technologies 6.8 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 10.6 Transitional → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 63 | Public service leap Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×2.5 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.4 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 11.6 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 53 | Market access opening Extreme + Great-power détente Extreme | ×2.5 | Technical & Vocational Skills 9 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 5.2 Nascent → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 53 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.3 |
| Higher-value international business | 11.1 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 48 | Market access opening Extreme + Great-power détente Extreme | ×2.4 | Technical & Vocational Skills 9 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 11.6 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 50 | Market access opening Extreme + Great-power détente Extreme | ×3.0 | Technical & Vocational Skills 9 |
| Secure food and water supply | 10.8 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 59 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.6 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 60 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 11.6 Transitional | — No route · rank 64 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 8.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 47 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 9.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 61 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 10.5 Transitional | — No route · rank 51 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 11.6 Transitional | — No route · rank 57 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 10.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 56 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Assured space services | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 47 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 8.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 53 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 10.7 Transitional | — No route · rank 47 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 8.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 58 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 10.1 Transitional | — No route · rank 53 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×2.8 | — |
| Wider international influence | 10.9 Transitional | — No route · rank 56 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 11.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 54 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Research translated into value | 9.2 Transitional | — No route · rank 61 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |