Iran
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Stretched developers. Exposed to food and funding shocks; debt relief and better yields are their upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 18.1
- rank 118 of 197 · 3 years: 17.9
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −1.4
- rank 72 of 197 · 3 years: −1.3
- Shock absorbed
- 32%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.24
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 9of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance
- weakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Regional war spillover, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: staple foods among the top five imports; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; refugees hosted per head of population; consumer price inflation; industry as a share of gdp; internet users as a share of population; youth unemployment rate; urban share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Iran’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.93 | −1.00 | −1.47 | −0.64 | ▼ 5 | 24 | Monetary & Currency Capability 4.1 · Nascent |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 1.00 | −0.92 | −1.48 | −0.65 | ▼ 3 | 24 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 4.6 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.85 | −0.84 | −1.11 | −0.49 | ▼ 3 | 18 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 2.4 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.80 | −0.72 | −1.03 | −0.45 | ▼ 1 | 21 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 2.8 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.61 | −0.66 | −0.91 | −0.40 | 0 | 16 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.7 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.68 | −0.63 | −0.96 | −0.42 | ▼ 3 | 13 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5.1 · Nascent |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.54 | −0.55 | −0.84 | −0.37 | 0 | 14 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5.5 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.51 | −0.53 | −0.76 | −0.33 | 0 | 16 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.9 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.40 | −0.38 | −0.49 | −0.22 | ▼ 1 | 8 | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 3.8 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.55 | −0.37 | −0.61 | −0.27 | 0 | 10 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.5 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.53 | −1.24 | −0.48 | −1.17 | −1.11 | −1.19 | −1.27 | −0.96 | −1.09 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.51 | −1.22 | −1.22 | −0.47 | −0.47 | −1.17 | −1.09 | −0.93 | −1.20 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.48 | −0.53 | −1.06 | −0.48 | −1.12 | −1.56 | −1.28 | −0.48 | −0.55 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.92 | −0.50 | −1.01 | · | −1.12 | −1.05 | −0.98 | −0.42 | −0.48 |
| AI labour shock | −0.74 | −0.34 | · | −0.89 | −0.78 | −0.92 | −0.78 | −0.77 | −0.77 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.95 | −0.34 | −0.75 | −0.34 | −0.84 | −0.90 | −0.77 | −0.77 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.58 | −0.29 | −0.26 | −0.70 | −0.61 | −0.66 | −0.61 | −0.60 | −0.60 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.69 | −0.26 | −0.26 | −0.26 | −0.62 | −0.60 | −0.62 | −0.61 | −0.83 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.23 | −0.25 | · | −0.25 | −0.23 | −0.52 | −0.84 | −0.59 | −0.52 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.27 | −0.59 | −0.64 | · | −0.66 | −0.68 | · | −0.25 | −0.25 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Iran is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +25.3 | 28.5 | 3.2 | 39 | 9 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 6.7 · Foundational |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +16.3 | 21.8 | 5.5 | 40 | 67 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 6.7 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +9.0 | 27.5 | 18.5 | 35 | 70 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 4.5 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +7.3 | 29.5 | 22.2 | 39 | 52 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6.5 · Foundational |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −3.6 | 6.6 | 10.2 | 32 | 149 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.3 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −4.7 | 11.7 | 16.4 | 27 | 64 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −6.3 | 14.6 | 20.8 | 29 | 105 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.3 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −10.3 | 17.4 | 27.6 | 29 | 67 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −15.2 | 12.6 | 27.9 | 31 | 140 | Investment Attraction & Projection 4.7 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −18.0 | 12.5 | 30.5 | 40 | 164 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 6.7 · Foundational |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Iran, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 8.4 Foundational → Nascent | 4.1% Possible · rank 32 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severe | ×1.8 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 6.1 Foundational → Inception | 3.5% Possible · rank 23 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Majorplans fail | ×2.1 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.3 |
| Food and water failure | 10.9 Transitional → Foundational | 3.2% Possible · rank 3 | Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | 2.7% Possible · rank 17 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Majorplans fail | ×1.9 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 2.1% Possible · rank 21 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Majorplans fail | ×1.8 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6.5 |
| Collapse in energy security | 10.5 Transitional → Foundational | 2.0% Possible · rank 5 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6 |
| Rule of law failure | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.9% Possible · rank 11 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×1.9 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 1.5% Possible · rank 1 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Majorplans fail | ×2.4 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6.5 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.4% Possible · rank 71 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6 |
| Health system failure | 10.7 Transitional → Foundational | 1.3% Possible · rank 23 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Majorplans fail | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 1.2% Possible · rank 30 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Major | ×1.9 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 4.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 31 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6.5 |
| Defence readiness failure | 11.8 Transitional → Foundational | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 8 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6.5 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 8.4 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 31 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6 |
| Broad fall in national security | 10.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 6 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6.5 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 41 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 2 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6.5 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 10.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 62 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Quantum Technologies 4.5 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 45 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 9.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 61 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 8.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 46 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 4.5 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 9.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 34 | Legitimacy rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6 |
| Education pipeline failure | 10.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 20 | Legitimacy rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.6 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 41 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Quantum Technologies 4.5 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 37 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Quantum Technologies 4.5 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 10.2 Transitional → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 61 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×2.0 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6.5 |
| Secure food and water supply | 10.9 Transitional → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 31 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.8 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 6.7 |
| Capable digital government | 9.4 Transitional → Transitional | 0.2% Remote · rank 70 | Water-efficient food leap Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.5 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6.5 |
| Trusted public institutions | 5.3 Nascent → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 70 | Public service leap Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.7 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6.5 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 6.8 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 70 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6.5 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 5.0 Nascent → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 58 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4 |
| Research translated into value | 8.2 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 56 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.6 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 6.7 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 7.1 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 58 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×3.1 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6.5 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 9.8 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 60 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×3.0 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 6.5 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 10.8 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 63 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.7 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 6.7 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 8.7 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 73 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.4 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 4.5 |
| Wider international influence | 7.8 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 51 | Great-power détente Extreme + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×2.2 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 4.5 |
| Broad rise in national security | 10.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 65 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 8.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 66 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×2.7 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 65 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 7.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 65 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 74 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Assured space services | 8.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 65 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 9.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 65 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 11.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 65 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 7.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 68 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×2.8 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 9.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 65 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 66 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 76 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 66 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |