Iraq
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil, gas and commodities: two of the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 30.7
- rank 71 of 197 · 3 years: 30.2
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −22.0
- rank 182 of 197 · 3 years: −22.2
- Shock absorbed
- 19%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.30
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 7of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Investment Attraction & Projection
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; industry as a share of gdp; youth unemployment rate; adult obesity rate; internet users as a share of population; share of population aged under 15.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Iraq’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.90 | −1.00 | −1.30 | −0.57 | ▼ 4 | 26 | Maritime Power 1.2 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.84 | −0.86 | −1.08 | −0.47 | ▼ 2 | 20 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2.3 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.80 | −0.85 | −0.98 | −0.44 | ▼ 4 | 23 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.61 | −0.75 | −0.88 | −0.40 | ▼ 1 | 20 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.61 | −0.72 | −0.88 | −0.39 | ▼ 2 | 19 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.50 | −0.62 | −0.77 | −0.34 | ▲ 4 | 17 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.44 | −0.54 | −0.68 | −0.30 | ▲ 1 | 18 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.54 | −0.48 | −0.60 | −0.26 | 0 | 14 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.42 | −0.46 | −0.59 | −0.26 | ▲ 4 | 11 | Financial System Depth & Access 3.6 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Low 0.31 | −0.31 | −0.38 | −0.17 | ▲ 5 | 6 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2.6 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.53 | −1.34 | −1.24 | −0.52 | −0.52 | −1.29 | −1.21 | −1.03 | −1.33 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.47 | −0.55 | −1.01 | −0.50 | −1.17 | −1.64 | −1.34 | −0.50 | −0.58 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.92 | −0.62 | −1.14 | · | −1.38 | −1.29 | −1.21 | −0.52 | −0.59 |
| AI labour shock | −0.71 | −0.38 | · | −1.02 | −0.89 | −1.05 | −0.89 | −0.88 | −0.88 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.78 | −0.37 | −0.33 | −0.37 | −0.87 | −0.83 | −0.87 | −0.85 | −1.17 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.60 | −0.33 | −0.27 | −0.81 | −0.71 | −0.76 | −0.71 | −0.69 | −0.69 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.28 | −0.67 | −0.23 | −0.63 | −0.60 | −0.64 | −0.69 | −0.51 | −0.59 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.35 | −0.77 | −0.77 | · | −0.86 | −0.88 | · | −0.32 | −0.32 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.69 | −0.22 | −0.54 | −0.25 | −0.61 | −0.65 | −0.56 | −0.56 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.19 | −0.21 | · | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.42 | −0.69 | −0.48 | −0.43 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Iraq is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +5.1 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 19 | 73 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +2.7 | 9.5 | 6.8 | 19 | 125 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +2.5 | 14.4 | 11.9 | 19 | 66 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −8.1 | 3.2 | 11.3 | 26 | 185 | Financial System Depth & Access 4.6 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −11.8 | 10.1 | 21.9 | 17 | 151 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −15.8 | 6.0 | 21.8 | 12 | 136 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −27.8 | 11.3 | 39.1 | 21 | 181 | Investment Attraction & Projection 3.3 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −29.3 | 18.5 | 47.9 | 28 | 177 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 5 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −32.1 | 4.6 | 36.7 | 8 | 163 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −67.5 | 6.0 | 73.5 | 17 | 189 | Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Iraq, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 3.1% Possible · rank 77 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.7 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 2.3% Possible · rank 27 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.7 |
| Loss of financial stability | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 1.7% Possible · rank 106 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.7 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 1.4% Possible · rank 47 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×1.7 | Maritime Power 3.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 32 | Hybrid coercion Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.7 |
| Rule of law failure | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 34 | Hybrid coercion Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.7 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 96 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.7 |
| Collapse in energy security | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Possible · rank 34 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.7 | Maritime Power 3.3 |
| Defence readiness failure | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 10 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 3.3 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 50 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×1.7 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 50 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 3.3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 58 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 67 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Broad fall in national security | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 43 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Health system failure | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 158 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 6.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 82 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.2 | Maritime Power 3.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 120 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Maritime Power 3.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 139 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Maritime Power 3.3 |
| Food and water failure | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 161 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 90 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 181 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Artificial Intelligence 1.3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 6.4 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 185 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Artificial Intelligence 1.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 127 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.3 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 127 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.5 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 127 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.9 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 126 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 126 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 126 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 126 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 126 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 126 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 126 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 126 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.8 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 126 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 126 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 126 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.9 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 126 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 126 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 126 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 126 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 126 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 126 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 126 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Wider international influence | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 126 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Capable digital government | 6.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 126 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 126 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 126 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.9 | — |
| Research translated into value | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 126 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 126 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 126 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |