Ireland
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 10.7
- rank 159 of 197 · 3 years: 10.5
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +23.0
- rank 21 of 197 · 3 years: +22.9
- Shock absorbed
- 47%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.11
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Energy Infrastructure
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Hybrid coercion, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: few months of imports covered by reserves; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; refugees hosted per head of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Ireland’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.96 | −0.87 | −1.39 | −0.61 | ▼ 2 | 25 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0.2 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.89 | −0.67 | −1.14 | −0.49 | 0 | 19 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 4.4 · Nascent |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.84 | −0.65 | −1.30 | −0.57 | 0 | 19 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.7 · Transitional |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.85 | −0.64 | −1.26 | −0.55 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 6.4 · Foundational |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.84 | −0.59 | −1.25 | −0.54 | 0 | 20 | Artificial Intelligence 8.5 · Foundational |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.74 | −0.52 | −0.82 | −0.36 | ▼ 1 | 17 | Maritime Power 2.6 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.81 | −0.47 | −1.02 | −0.44 | ▼ 1 | 14 | Economic Output & Productivity 11.4 · Transitional |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.39 | −0.30 | −0.61 | −0.27 | ▲ 1 | 11 | Energy Infrastructure 9.2 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.40 | −0.24 | −0.51 | −0.22 | ▲ 2 | 11 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 6.8 · Foundational |
| Core disaster S07 | Low 0.31 | −0.20 | −0.43 | −0.19 | ▲ 2 | 8 | Energy Infrastructure 9.3 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.49 | −1.17 | −1.08 | −0.45 | −0.45 | −1.12 | −1.05 | −0.90 | −1.15 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.87 | −0.47 | −0.87 | · | −1.06 | −0.99 | −0.92 | −0.40 | −0.45 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.69 | −0.34 | −0.28 | −0.84 | −0.73 | −0.78 | −0.73 | −0.72 | −0.72 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.84 | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.32 | −0.75 | −0.72 | −0.75 | −0.74 | −1.01 |
| AI labour shock | −0.66 | −0.30 | · | −0.80 | −0.70 | −0.82 | −0.70 | −0.68 | −0.68 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.39 | −0.85 | −0.85 | · | −0.94 | −0.97 | · | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.28 | −0.31 | · | −0.31 | −0.28 | −0.63 | −1.03 | −0.73 | −0.64 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.16 | −0.37 | −0.13 | −0.35 | −0.33 | −0.36 | −0.38 | −0.29 | −0.33 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.14 | −0.15 | −0.27 | −0.14 | −0.32 | −0.44 | −0.36 | −0.14 | −0.16 |
| Core disaster | −0.01 | −0.30 | −0.10 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.26 | −0.28 | −0.24 | −0.24 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Ireland is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +48.1 | 49.5 | 1.4 | 61 | 20 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 · Transitional |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +38.1 | 38.3 | 0.2 | 42 | 20 | Energy Technologies 4.8 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +30.8 | 48.4 | 17.6 | 63 | 21 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 · Transitional |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Gainer | +29.0 | 42.0 | 13.0 | 47 | 23 | Robotics & Autonomous Systems 7.5 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +25.2 | 26.0 | 0.8 | 50 | 26 | Intelligence & Assessment 7.5 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Gainer | +24.6 | 37.4 | 12.7 | 53 | 15 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8 · Foundational |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +17.0 | 35.0 | 18.0 | 60 | 20 | Energy Infrastructure 9.8 · Transitional |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Gainer | +10.2 | 14.0 | 3.8 | 60 | 29 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 9.6 · Transitional |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +0.7 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 62 | 98 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 · Transitional |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −5.3 | 0.8 | 6.1 | 61 | 167 | Energy Infrastructure 9.8 · Transitional |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Ireland, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 14.9 Established → Transitional | 4.1% Possible · rank 35 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.2 | Maritime Power 4 |
| Loss of financial stability | 14.4 Established → Transitional | 3.3% Possible · rank 28 | Global funding seizure Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Maritime Power 4 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 14.4 Established → Transitional | 1.9% Possible · rank 31 | Global funding seizure Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Maritime Power 4 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 15.1 Advanced → Transitional | 1.9% Possible · rank 53 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Maritime Power 4 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 6.1 Foundational → Inception | 1.6% Possible · rank 24 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 6 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 14.5 Established → Transitional | 1.5% Possible · rank 11 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 4 |
| Collapse in energy security | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 1.4% Possible · rank 14 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.0 | Maritime Power 4 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 11.8 Transitional → Foundational | 1.3% Possible · rank 8 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 6 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 13.0 Established → Transitional | 1.1% Possible · rank 39 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 6 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 13.7 Established → Transitional | 1.1% Possible · rank 72 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×1.9 | Maritime Power 4 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 12.4 Established → Transitional | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 27 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 6 |
| Rule of law failure | 15.4 Advanced → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 69 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 6 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 13.0 Established → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 16 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 6 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 14.3 Established → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 15 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 13.6 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 13.6 Established → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 23 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 13.6 |
| Health system failure | 14.7 Established → Transitional | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 89 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 11.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 35 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 4 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 6.0 Foundational → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 3 | Trade bloc rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 12.3 |
| Defence readiness failure | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 26 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Maritime Power 4 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 7 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.5 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 12.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 33 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 6 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 15.0 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 31 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 |
| Food and water failure | 12.8 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Remote · rank 132 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6 |
| Education pipeline failure | 15.2 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 75 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 47 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.3 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capable digital government | 15.3 Advanced → Advanced | 8.8% Likely · rank 20 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 8.8 Foundational → Transitional | 8.4% Likely · rank 21 | Automated discovery step Severe + Chronic disease advance Major | ×1.2 | Robotics & Autonomous Systems 7.5 |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 13.4 Established → Advanced | 8.1% Likely · rank 22 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 15.1 Advanced → Advanced | 7.0% Likely · rank 24 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 |
| Trusted public institutions | 15.2 Advanced → Advanced | 5.4% Likely · rank 23 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 7.3 Foundational → Foundational | 5.2% Likely · rank 17 | Market access opening Major + Clean power threshold Severe | ×1.3 | Energy Technologies 4.8 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 14.7 Established → Advanced | 5.1% Likely · rank 15 | Market access opening Major + Great-power détente Severe | ×1.3 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 7.1 Foundational → Foundational | 5.1% Likely · rank 21 | Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.6 | Robotics & Autonomous Systems 7.5 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 10.6 Transitional → Established | 3.8% Possible · rank 20 | Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.6 | Robotics & Autonomous Systems 7.5 |
| Research translated into value | 15.0 Advanced → Advanced | 3.6% Possible · rank 22 | Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.4 | Robotics & Autonomous Systems 7.5 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 14.5 Established → Advanced | 3.3% Possible · rank 19 | Market access opening Severe + Great-power détente Severe | ×1.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8 |
| Higher-value international business | 15.5 Advanced → Advanced | 3.3% Possible · rank 16 | Market access opening Severe + Great-power détente Severe | ×1.7 | Energy Infrastructure 9.8 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 15.0 Established → Advanced | 3.1% Possible · rank 23 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 11.6 Transitional → Established | 2.8% Possible · rank 20 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 14.3 Established → Advanced | 2.3% Possible · rank 20 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 14.5 Established → Advanced | 1.2% Possible · rank 23 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 |
| Secure food and water supply | 12.8 Established → Established | 1.1% Possible · rank 25 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 12.4 Established → Established | 1.1% Possible · rank 15 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 |
| Wider international influence | 11.8 Transitional → Established | 1.1% Possible · rank 17 | Great-power détente Extreme + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 14.4 Established → Advanced | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 24 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 |
| Stronger information environment | 13.1 Established → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 20 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 14.3 Established → Advanced | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 28 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Chronic disease advance Major | ×2.1 | Energy Technologies 4.8 |
| Assured space services | 3.4 Nascent → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 24 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 |
| Broad rise in national security | 4.3 Nascent → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 16 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.4 | Robotics & Autonomous Systems 7.5 |
| More deployable joint force | 5.0 Nascent → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 16 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.4 | Robotics & Autonomous Systems 7.5 |