Israel
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 5.6
- rank 189 of 197 · 3 years: 5.5
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +30.8
- rank 14 of 197 · 3 years: +31.1
- Shock absorbed
- 55%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.03
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 8of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks
- weakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Regional war spillover, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: land borders with states in conflict or collapse; little renewable water per head; urban share of population; internet users as a share of population; adult obesity rate.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Israel’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.73 | −0.47 | −1.09 | −0.46 | 0 | 11 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 12.7 · Established |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.89 | −0.47 | −1.14 | −0.46 | 0 | 15 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.2 · Transitional |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.64 | −0.44 | −1.00 | −0.43 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 12.7 · Established |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Medium 0.53 | −0.40 | −0.78 | −0.34 | ▲ 2 | 17 | Resource Infrastructure 9.7 · Transitional |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.62 | −0.38 | −0.87 | −0.37 | 0 | 16 | Energy Infrastructure 9.9 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.59 | −0.37 | −0.78 | −0.34 | 0 | 12 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 12.2 · Established |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.47 | −0.36 | −0.70 | −0.30 | 0 | 10 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.5 · Transitional |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.49 | −0.36 | −0.77 | −0.33 | 0 | 13 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.6 · Transitional |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.58 | −0.28 | −0.66 | −0.26 | ▲ 2 | 12 | Energy Infrastructure 10 · Transitional |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.42 | −0.24 | −0.52 | −0.23 | ▲ 1 | 8 | Economic Output & Productivity 11.9 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock | −0.52 | −0.24 | · | −0.63 | −0.55 | −0.65 | −0.55 | −0.54 | −0.54 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.60 | −0.33 | −0.65 | · | −0.73 | −0.68 | −0.64 | −0.27 | −0.31 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.46 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.56 | −0.49 | −0.52 | −0.49 | −0.48 | −0.48 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.22 | −0.52 | −0.52 | −0.20 | −0.20 | −0.50 | −0.47 | −0.40 | −0.52 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.56 | −0.20 | −0.45 | −0.20 | −0.50 | −0.54 | −0.46 | −0.46 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.21 | −0.23 | −0.47 | −0.21 | −0.50 | −0.69 | −0.57 | −0.21 | −0.24 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.47 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.42 | −0.40 | −0.42 | −0.41 | −0.57 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.19 | −0.44 | −0.17 | −0.41 | −0.40 | −0.42 | −0.45 | −0.34 | −0.39 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.21 | −0.45 | −0.49 | · | −0.50 | −0.52 | · | −0.19 | −0.19 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.15 | −0.16 | · | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.33 | −0.53 | −0.37 | −0.33 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Israel is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Gainer | +55.8 | 62.4 | 6.6 | 73 | 10 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7 · Established |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +45.8 | 59.8 | 13.9 | 75 | 7 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 14.8 · Established |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +42.2 | 45.3 | 3.0 | 71 | 28 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 13.5 · Established |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +41.8 | 48.4 | 6.5 | 60 | 3 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10.3 · Transitional |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +28.3 | 29.8 | 1.4 | 67 | 4 | Transport Infrastructure 12.4 · Established |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +20.7 | 28.1 | 7.4 | 61 | 16 | Energy Infrastructure 10.8 · Transitional |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Gainer | +19.9 | 29.6 | 9.7 | 60 | 17 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10.3 · Transitional |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Gainer | +18.5 | 27.5 | 9.0 | 69 | 10 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 13 · Established |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +9.3 | 20.0 | 10.7 | 60 | 86 | Resource Infrastructure 10.5 · Transitional |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −1.3 | 3.9 | 5.3 | 62 | 120 | Energy Infrastructure 10.8 · Transitional |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Israel, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 14.9 Established → Transitional | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 178 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×4.0 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 13 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 17.3 Advanced → Established | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 67 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Quantum Technologies 13.5 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 14.3 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 175 | Hybrid coercion Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×4.3 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 13 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 12.9 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 128 | Hybrid coercion Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×4.1 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 13 |
| Loss of financial stability | 14.6 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 181 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.4 | Quantum Technologies 13.5 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 14.0 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 177 | Regional war spillover Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.7 | Quantum Technologies 13.5 |
| Health system failure | 15.3 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 169 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×3.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 |
| Rule of law failure | 13.3 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 175 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.1 | Quantum Technologies 13.5 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 13.1 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Remote · rank 109 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.1 | Quantum Technologies 13.5 |
| Food and water failure | 15.4 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 150 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×4.4 | Financial System Depth & Access 14.2 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 13.1 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 168 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×4.3 | Resource Infrastructure 10.5 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 12.3 Established → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 116 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.1 | Quantum Technologies 13.5 |
| Broad fall in national security | 16.2 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 62 | Regional war spillover Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.6 | Quantum Technologies 13.5 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 15.5 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 77 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.1 | Quantum Technologies 13.5 |
| Defence readiness failure | 16.2 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 78 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×5.5 | Quantum Technologies 13.5 |
| Collapse in energy security | 11.1 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 116 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×4.5 | Resource Infrastructure 10.5 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 14.8 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 51 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×5.0 | Quantum Technologies 13.5 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 13.8 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 135 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×5.3 | Financial System Depth & Access 14.2 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 14.0 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 47 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×5.5 | Quantum Technologies 13.5 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 13.9 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 165 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×5.3 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 13.7 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 15.3 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 24 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×5.5 | Quantum Technologies 13.5 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 15.0 Advanced → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 148 | Breadbasket failure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×4.8 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 13.7 |
| Education pipeline failure | 14.6 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 126 | Breadbasket failure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×5.1 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 13.7 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 14.9 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 157 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×5.6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 13.7 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 166 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×5.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frontier AI and compute | 14.7 Established → Advanced | 16% Likely · rank 16 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×0.8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7 |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 15.3 Advanced → Advanced | 16% Likely · rank 13 | Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Major | ×1.0 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 14.8 |
| Research translated into value | 16.3 Advanced → Advanced | 15% Likely · rank 10 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.0 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7 |
| Capable digital government | 15.6 Advanced → Advanced | 15% Likely · rank 10 | Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×1.2 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 14.8 |
| Trusted public institutions | 13.7 Established → Advanced | 12% Likely · rank 14 | Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×1.3 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 14.8 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 14.3 Established → Advanced | 12% Likely · rank 12 | Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×1.3 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 14.8 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 14.8 Established → Advanced | 7.5% Likely · rank 17 | Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×1.1 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 14.8 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 15.0 Advanced → Advanced | 6.8% Likely · rank 13 | Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×1.4 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 14.8 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 13.8 Established → Advanced | 4.6% Possible · rank 16 | Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.5 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 14.6 Established → Advanced | 4.2% Possible · rank 18 | Water-efficient food leap Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.1 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 11.4 Transitional → Established | 3.5% Possible · rank 26 | Market access opening Severe + Middle East settlement Severe | ×1.4 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10.3 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 14.9 Established → Advanced | 3.3% Possible · rank 17 | Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 13.9 Established → Advanced | 3.3% Possible · rank 21 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 14.0 Established → Advanced | 3.1% Possible · rank 15 | Automated discovery step Severe + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×1.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 14.0 Established → Advanced | 3.0% Possible · rank 16 | Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×1.4 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 14.8 |
| Secure food and water supply | 15.4 Advanced → Advanced | 2.8% Possible · rank 16 | Water-efficient food leap Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 13.9 Established → Advanced | 2.6% Possible · rank 21 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7 |
| Higher-value international business | 15.3 Advanced → Advanced | 2.4% Possible · rank 21 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7 |
| Assured space services | 15.0 Established → Advanced | 1.8% Possible · rank 15 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 13.1 Established → Established | 1.6% Possible · rank 9 | Market access opening Major + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×1.6 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10.3 |
| Wider international influence | 12.3 Established → Established | 1.3% Possible · rank 15 | Market access opening Major + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×1.2 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10.3 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 13.7 Established → Advanced | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 19 | Automated discovery step Major + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×1.9 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 14.8 |
| Broad rise in national security | 16.2 Advanced → Advanced | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 12 | Great-power détente Major + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7 |
| More deployable joint force | 15.6 Advanced → Advanced | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 11 | Great-power détente Major + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.7 |
| Stronger information environment | 14.0 Established → Advanced | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 18 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.7 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 13.5 |