Italy
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 7.8
- rank 175 of 197 · 3 years: 7.7
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +23.6
- rank 20 of 197 · 3 years: +23.9
- Shock absorbed
- 51%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.05
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 6of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Labour & Employment
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Regional war spillover, Hybrid coercion. Highest exposure indicators: share of population aged 65 and over; public debt relative to gdp; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population; youth unemployment rate; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Italy’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.82 | −0.64 | −1.23 | −0.54 | 0 | 14 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 9.7 · Transitional |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.84 | −0.59 | −1.23 | −0.54 | 0 | 17 | Resource Infrastructure 10.8 · Transitional |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.87 | −0.58 | −1.11 | −0.49 | 0 | 15 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 10.9 · Transitional |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.78 | −0.58 | −1.22 | −0.53 | 0 | 16 | Labour & Employment 10.9 · Transitional |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.70 | −0.46 | −0.98 | −0.43 | 0 | 12 | Energy Infrastructure 12 · Established |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.76 | −0.45 | −0.95 | −0.42 | 0 | 9 | Labour & Employment 10.9 · Transitional |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.73 | −0.40 | −0.82 | −0.36 | 0 | 17 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 11.3 · Transitional |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.51 | −0.36 | −0.76 | −0.33 | 0 | 10 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.6 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.47 | −0.31 | −0.61 | −0.27 | 0 | 9 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 11.5 · Transitional |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.37 | −0.27 | −0.58 | −0.25 | 0 | 9 | Energy Infrastructure 12.5 · Established |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock | −0.71 | −0.32 | · | −0.87 | −0.76 | −0.89 | −0.76 | −0.74 | −0.74 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.33 | −0.78 | −0.78 | −0.30 | −0.30 | −0.75 | −0.70 | −0.60 | −0.77 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.75 | −0.41 | −0.81 | · | −0.90 | −0.85 | −0.79 | −0.34 | −0.39 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.61 | −0.31 | −0.28 | −0.74 | −0.65 | −0.70 | −0.65 | −0.64 | −0.64 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.68 | −0.24 | −0.54 | −0.24 | −0.61 | −0.65 | −0.56 | −0.56 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.27 | −0.30 | · | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.61 | −1.00 | −0.70 | −0.62 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.29 | −0.64 | −0.69 | · | −0.71 | −0.73 | · | −0.27 | −0.27 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.47 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.42 | −0.40 | −0.42 | −0.41 | −0.56 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.18 | −0.19 | −0.39 | −0.18 | −0.41 | −0.57 | −0.47 | −0.18 | −0.20 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.14 | −0.34 | −0.13 | −0.32 | −0.30 | −0.32 | −0.34 | −0.26 | −0.29 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Italy is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +49.5 | 50.9 | 1.4 | 68 | 19 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13 · Established |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +48.7 | 52.2 | 3.5 | 62 | 11 | Energy Technologies 11.6 · Transitional |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Gainer | +38.9 | 52.7 | 13.8 | 62 | 18 | Artificial Intelligence 11.3 · Transitional |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +30.7 | 33.2 | 2.5 | 66 | 15 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 12.3 · Established |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +16.8 | 47.7 | 30.8 | 69 | 36 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 13.3 · Established |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Gainer | +14.0 | 25.8 | 11.8 | 65 | 23 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 11.3 · Transitional |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +9.0 | 14.3 | 5.3 | 64 | 36 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 12.3 · Established |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +8.0 | 20.6 | 12.6 | 67 | 40 | Technical & Vocational Skills 12.5 · Established |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +6.8 | 13.8 | 7.0 | 66 | 59 | Technical & Vocational Skills 12.5 · Established |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −0.9 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 65 | 110 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 12.5 · Established |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Italy, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 14.2 Established → Transitional | 2.3% Possible · rank 106 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.1 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 12.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 13.9 Established → Transitional | 1.8% Possible · rank 98 | Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 13.2 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 13.5 Established → Transitional | 1.2% Possible · rank 101 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.4 | Quantum Technologies 11.3 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 13.8 Established → Transitional | 1.1% Possible · rank 45 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 11.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 13.9 Established → Transitional | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 117 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×3.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 13.2 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 14.1 Established → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 65 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Quantum Technologies 11.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 14.6 Established → Transitional | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 112 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Resource Infrastructure 12 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 14.6 Established → Transitional | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 65 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Quantum Technologies 11.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 12.2 Established → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 62 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Resource Infrastructure 12 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 14.1 Established → Transitional | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 49 | Global funding seizure Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 11 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 14.8 Established → Transitional | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 84 | Global funding seizure Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.9 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 11 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 14.9 Established → Transitional | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 66 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Quantum Technologies 11.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 14.5 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 51 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.9 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 12.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 12.2 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 30 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.7 | Resource Infrastructure 12 |
| Rule of law failure | 12.6 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 139 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Quantum Technologies 11.3 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 14.3 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 44 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Quantum Technologies 11.3 |
| Defence readiness failure | 14.3 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 35 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 12.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 13.5 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 54 | Global funding seizure Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 11 |
| Health system failure | 15.0 Advanced → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 139 | Global funding seizure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13 |
| Food and water failure | 14.7 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 104 | Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×4.1 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 13.5 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 13.7 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Remote · rank 59 | Global funding seizure Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 11 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 13.0 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 39 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | Quantum Technologies 11.3 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 12.9 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 31 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.4 | Quantum Technologies 11.3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 13.9 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 87 | Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Lifelong Learning & Reskilling 11 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 8.3 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 25 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.8 | Resource Infrastructure 12 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable low-cost energy | 12.3 Established → Established | 17% Likely · rank 9 | Clean power threshold Severe | ×1.0 | Energy Technologies 11.6 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 11.3 Transitional → Established | 17% Likely · rank 15 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×0.9 | Artificial Intelligence 11.3 |
| Capable digital government | 13.6 Established → Advanced | 12% Likely · rank 17 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13 |
| Trusted public institutions | 12.8 Established → Established | 11% Likely · rank 17 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.5 | Artificial Intelligence 11.3 |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 14.5 Established → Advanced | 10% Likely · rank 20 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 13.5 Established → Advanced | 9.5% Likely · rank 18 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 13.0 Established → Established | 8.1% Likely · rank 16 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.3 | Artificial Intelligence 11.3 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 13.5 Established → Established | 6.9% Likely · rank 10 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.5 | Artificial Intelligence 11.3 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 14.5 Established → Advanced | 5.2% Likely · rank 14 | Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.6 | Energy Technologies 11.6 |
| Research translated into value | 13.7 Established → Advanced | 5.2% Likely · rank 18 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.1 | Artificial Intelligence 11.3 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 14.4 Established → Advanced | 4.8% Possible · rank 15 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.3 | Artificial Intelligence 11.3 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 14.8 Established → Advanced | 4.0% Possible · rank 17 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 15.4 Advanced → Advanced | 3.6% Possible · rank 18 | Clean power threshold Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.9 | Artificial Intelligence 11.3 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 13.7 Established → Advanced | 3.3% Possible · rank 19 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.7 | Artificial Intelligence 11.3 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 14.4 Established → Advanced | 3.1% Possible · rank 11 | Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.5 | Energy Technologies 11.6 |
| Higher-value international business | 13.9 Established → Advanced | 2.6% Possible · rank 20 | Clean power threshold Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.9 | Artificial Intelligence 11.3 |
| Secure food and water supply | 14.7 Established → Advanced | 2.5% Possible · rank 17 | Clean power threshold Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.9 | Artificial Intelligence 11.3 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 12.0 Established → Established | 2.4% Possible · rank 18 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.9 | Artificial Intelligence 11.3 |
| Assured space services | 14.0 Established → Advanced | 1.5% Possible · rank 16 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.9 | Artificial Intelligence 11.3 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 13.9 Established → Advanced | 1.5% Possible · rank 17 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.6 | Energy Technologies 11.6 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 14.6 Established → Advanced | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 19 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13 |
| Stronger information environment | 14.3 Established → Advanced | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 22 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13 |
| Wider international influence | 14.9 Established → Advanced | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 26 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13 |
| Broad rise in national security | 12.2 Established → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 17 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.9 | Artificial Intelligence 11.3 |
| More deployable joint force | 14.2 Established → Advanced | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 17 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.9 | Artificial Intelligence 11.3 |