Jordan
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 19.5
- rank 113 of 197 · 3 years: 19.2
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +8.1
- rank 45 of 197 · 3 years: +8.4
- Shock absorbed
- 30%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.25
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 4of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: land borders with states in conflict or collapse; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; refugees hosted per head of population; youth unemployment rate; little renewable water per head; adult obesity rate; internet users as a share of population; urban share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Jordan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.93 | −0.95 | −1.35 | −0.59 | ▼ 2 | 22 | Maritime Power 0.8 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.88 | −0.85 | −1.10 | −0.49 | ▼ 2 | 22 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.70 | −0.74 | −1.04 | −0.46 | ▼ 1 | 20 | Artificial Intelligence 2.8 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.80 | −0.73 | −1.03 | −0.45 | ▼ 2 | 20 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.3 · Nascent |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.64 | −0.67 | −0.98 | −0.43 | 0 | 16 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.1 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.71 | −0.63 | −1.00 | −0.44 | ▼ 2 | 17 | Industrial & Sectoral Base 6.4 · Foundational |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.58 | −0.59 | −0.84 | −0.37 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.51 | −0.53 | −0.80 | −0.35 | 0 | 12 | Energy Infrastructure 7 · Foundational |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.61 | −0.51 | −0.76 | −0.33 | ▼ 1 | 10 | Economic Output & Productivity 5.3 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.59 | −0.45 | −0.66 | −0.29 | ▲ 1 | 11 | Maritime Power 1.5 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.53 | −1.26 | −1.17 | −0.49 | −0.49 | −1.21 | −1.13 | −0.97 | −1.25 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −1.06 | −0.60 | −1.11 | · | −1.34 | −1.26 | −1.17 | −0.50 | −0.57 |
| AI labour shock | −0.80 | −0.37 | · | −1.00 | −0.87 | −1.03 | −0.87 | −0.85 | −0.85 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.43 | −0.47 | −0.85 | −0.43 | −0.99 | −1.38 | −1.13 | −0.43 | −0.49 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.70 | −0.36 | −0.29 | −0.87 | −0.76 | −0.82 | −0.76 | −0.75 | −0.75 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.95 | −0.31 | −0.76 | −0.34 | −0.85 | −0.91 | −0.78 | −0.78 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.72 | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.30 | −0.71 | −0.68 | −0.71 | −0.69 | −0.95 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.28 | −0.66 | −0.23 | −0.62 | −0.59 | −0.64 | −0.68 | −0.51 | −0.58 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.31 | −0.34 | · | −0.34 | −0.31 | −0.69 | −1.13 | −0.79 | −0.70 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.33 | −0.72 | −0.72 | · | −0.80 | −0.83 | · | −0.30 | −0.30 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Jordan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +39.0 | 42.1 | 3.1 | 42 | 5 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 7.5 · Foundational |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +16.5 | 21.2 | 4.7 | 28 | 54 | Energy Technologies 3.6 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +15.7 | 20.8 | 5.0 | 33 | 69 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +15.0 | 17.9 | 2.9 | 32 | 27 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +14.0 | 26.1 | 12.1 | 33 | 45 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +4.4 | 13.1 | 8.7 | 42 | 41 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 7.7 · Foundational |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +4.1 | 24.8 | 20.7 | 41 | 57 | Technical & Vocational Skills 7.5 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −0.1 | 18.2 | 18.3 | 30 | 76 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.8 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −3.0 | 11.3 | 14.3 | 21 | 59 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −12.0 | 8.8 | 20.8 | 14 | 68 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Jordan, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | 4.0% Possible · rank 36 | Hybrid coercion Major + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 7 |
| Loss of financial stability | 8.8 Foundational → Nascent | 2.0% Possible · rank 87 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.8% Possible · rank 65 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 7 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.5% Possible · rank 60 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 1.4% Possible · rank 46 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×1.8 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 36 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Collapse in energy security | 6.3 Foundational → Inception | 1.0% Possible · rank 36 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 47 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×1.8 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 61 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 7 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 39 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Food and water failure | 9.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 52 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Financial System Depth & Access 8.4 |
| Health system failure | 10.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 88 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 |
| Broad fall in national security | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 19 | Regional war spillover Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 66 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 8.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 62 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 46 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.4 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 8.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 27 | Hybrid coercion Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 7 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 58 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 47 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 59 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 9.0 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 119 | Breadbasket failure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Artificial Intelligence 4.3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 98 | Breadbasket failure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Artificial Intelligence 4.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 76 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.8 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 76 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.4 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 76 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.1 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trusted public institutions | 7.8 Foundational → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 47 | Market access opening Major + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×1.9 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 7.5 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 5.8 Nascent → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 45 | Market access opening Major + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×1.6 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 7.5 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 8.6 Foundational → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 53 | Market access opening Major + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×1.7 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 7.5 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 8.6 Foundational → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 31 | Market access opening Major + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×1.8 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 7.5 |
| Wider international influence | 8.9 Foundational → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 25 | Market access opening Major + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×1.4 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 7.5 |
| Capable digital government | 9.6 Transitional → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 62 | Market access opening Severe + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×2.0 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 7.5 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 8.2 Foundational → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 32 | Market access opening Severe + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×1.8 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 7.5 |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 8.1 Foundational → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 70 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 |
| Secure food and water supply | 9.8 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 55 | Market access opening Extreme + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×2.4 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 7.5 |
| Higher-value international business | 8.0 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 55 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.4 | Technical & Vocational Skills 7.5 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 8.2 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 69 | Market access opening Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Technical & Vocational Skills 7.5 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 74 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 74 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.2 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 9.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 75 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 8.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 74 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 7.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 74 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Assured space services | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 74 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 74 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 74 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 7.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 74 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×2.4 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 7.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 76 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 7.4 Foundational → Transitional | — Remote · rank 74 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 7.5 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 8.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 74 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Research translated into value | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 75 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 8.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 74 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |