Kazakhstan
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 15.6
- rank 128 of 197 · 3 years: 15.3
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −17.3
- rank 172 of 197 · 3 years: −17.2
- Shock absorbed
- 33%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.20
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 9of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Hybrid coercion, AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; land border with russia or belarus; no coastline; internet users as a share of population; consumer price inflation; industry as a share of gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Kazakhstan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.87 | −0.82 | −1.10 | −0.48 | ▼ 2 | 25 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.3 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.92 | −0.69 | −1.02 | −0.45 | ▼ 3 | 26 | Maritime Power 1.1 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.69 | −0.69 | −1.03 | −0.45 | ▼ 1 | 26 | Artificial Intelligence 2.9 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.65 | −0.66 | −1.00 | −0.44 | 0 | 24 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.5 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.64 | −0.60 | −0.83 | −0.36 | ▲ 1 | 28 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.3 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.56 | −0.55 | −0.83 | −0.37 | ▼ 2 | 24 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.50 | −0.42 | −0.69 | −0.30 | ▲ 1 | 18 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8.1 · Foundational |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Medium 0.41 | −0.38 | −0.59 | −0.26 | ▲ 2 | 17 | Maritime Power 2.2 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.30 | −0.30 | −0.47 | −0.21 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 8.4 · Foundational |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Low 0.31 | −0.25 | −0.39 | −0.17 | ▲ 2 | 12 | Investment Attraction & Projection 8.1 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cryptographic trust break | −1.07 | −0.58 | −1.07 | · | −1.30 | −1.22 | −1.14 | −0.49 | −0.56 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.52 | −1.13 | −1.13 | · | −1.25 | −1.29 | · | −0.47 | −0.47 |
| AI labour shock | −0.77 | −0.35 | · | −0.93 | −0.82 | −0.96 | −0.82 | −0.80 | −0.80 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.70 | −0.35 | −0.29 | −0.85 | −0.75 | −0.80 | −0.75 | −0.73 | −0.73 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.35 | −0.38 | −0.69 | −0.35 | −0.81 | −1.13 | −0.93 | −0.35 | −0.40 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.71 | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.28 | −0.65 | −0.62 | −0.65 | −0.63 | −0.87 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.63 | −0.20 | −0.50 | −0.22 | −0.56 | −0.60 | −0.51 | −0.51 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.22 | −0.51 | −0.47 | −0.20 | −0.20 | −0.49 | −0.46 | −0.39 | −0.51 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.16 | −0.38 | −0.13 | −0.35 | −0.34 | −0.36 | −0.39 | −0.29 | −0.33 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.15 | −0.16 | · | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.34 | −0.55 | −0.38 | −0.34 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Kazakhstan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +3.6 | 19.9 | 16.3 | 38 | 118 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.8 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +0.8 | 26.5 | 25.7 | 39 | 75 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.8 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −2.3 | 2.9 | 5.2 | 43 | 128 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 7.3 · Foundational |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −9.8 | 14.5 | 24.2 | 44 | 115 | Digital & Services Trade 8.3 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −10.9 | 13.8 | 24.7 | 32 | 138 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.2 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −18.0 | 5.5 | 23.5 | 23 | 151 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −19.3 | 8.6 | 27.9 | 38 | 188 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.8 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −19.9 | 8.8 | 28.6 | 17 | 95 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −33.4 | 5.0 | 38.4 | 40 | 180 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 6.5 · Foundational |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −42.9 | 9.7 | 52.6 | 36 | 172 | Energy Technologies 4.6 · Nascent |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Kazakhstan, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | 5.9% Likely · rank 15 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×1.8 | Quantum Technologies 1.5 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 4.2% Possible · rank 3 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severe | ×1.9 | Quantum Technologies 1.5 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 8.4 Foundational → Nascent | 2.1% Possible · rank 39 | Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.7 |
| Rule of law failure | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 1.4% Possible · rank 19 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 1.5 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | 1.4% Possible · rank 21 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.7 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 14 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.7 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 8.4 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 16 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.7 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 8.4 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Possible · rank 3 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.7 |
| Broad fall in national security | 6.1 Foundational → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 10 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 1.5 |
| Loss of financial stability | 10.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 173 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 1.5 |
| Collapse in energy security | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 68 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.7 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.7 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 10.1 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 57 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.7 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.7 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 9.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 172 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Quantum Technologies 1.5 |
| Health system failure | 10.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 179 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 63 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.7 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 8.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 151 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.8 |
| Food and water failure | 9.3 Transitional → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 152 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.7 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 9.2 Transitional → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 174 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.9 | Structural Transformation & Complexity 7.7 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 57 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 1.5 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 8.5 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 153 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.8 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 163 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.8 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 10.0 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 179 | AI labour shock Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.8 |
| Education pipeline failure | 10.9 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 179 | AI labour shock Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.8 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 68 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.1 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 70 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×4.6 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 8.8 Foundational → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 69 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.8 |
| Capable digital government | 10.5 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 76 | Public service leap Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.8 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 66 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 10.1 Transitional | — No route · rank 71 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 66 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 10.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 67 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 8.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 67 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 8.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 80 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 9.7 Transitional | — No route · rank 66 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 8.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 66 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 8.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 75 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Assured space services | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 66 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 66 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 66 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 7.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 83 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 9.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 75 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 66 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 9.2 Transitional | — No route · rank 69 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 8.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 66 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Wider international influence | 8.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 68 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 7.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 86 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 9.9 Transitional | — No route · rank 67 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Research translated into value | 7.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 68 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 8.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 77 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 8.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 67 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |