Kenya
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Stretched developers. Exposed to food and funding shocks; debt relief and better yields are their upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 16.2
- rank 126 of 197 · 3 years: 16.1
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +7.9
- rank 46 of 197 · 3 years: +8.3
- Shock absorbed
- 30%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.20
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 0of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Regional war spillover, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; staple foods among the top five imports; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; little renewable water per head; share of population aged under 15; refugees hosted per head of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Kenya’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.89 | −0.98 | −1.40 | −0.61 | ▼ 9 | 26 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5.1 · Nascent |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.67 | −0.71 | −0.97 | −0.42 | 0 | 20 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0.9 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.79 | −0.68 | −1.01 | −0.44 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6.1 · Foundational |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.61 | −0.57 | −0.85 | −0.37 | ▼ 1 | 14 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5.8 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.51 | −0.53 | −0.76 | −0.33 | ▲ 3 | 17 | Artificial Intelligence 4.3 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.50 | −0.50 | −0.64 | −0.28 | ▲ 4 | 16 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.8 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.56 | −0.48 | −0.70 | −0.30 | ▲ 3 | 16 | Labour & Employment 5.6 · Nascent |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.42 | −0.46 | −0.65 | −0.29 | ▲ 3 | 12 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.3 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Low 0.26 | −0.27 | −0.39 | −0.17 | ▲ 5 | 8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.4 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.25 | −0.20 | −0.28 | −0.12 | ▲ 4 | 6 | Maritime Power 3 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.52 | −1.22 | −0.42 | −1.15 | −1.10 | −1.18 | −1.26 | −0.94 | −1.08 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.40 | −0.95 | −0.88 | −0.37 | −0.37 | −0.92 | −0.86 | −0.73 | −0.94 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.39 | −0.43 | −0.78 | −0.39 | −0.92 | −1.28 | −1.05 | −0.39 | −0.45 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.86 | −0.28 | −0.68 | −0.31 | −0.77 | −0.82 | −0.70 | −0.70 |
| AI labour shock | −0.59 | −0.27 | · | −0.72 | −0.63 | −0.74 | −0.63 | −0.61 | −0.61 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.66 | −0.36 | −0.66 | · | −0.79 | −0.75 | −0.70 | −0.30 | −0.34 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.29 | −0.32 | · | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.65 | −1.05 | −0.74 | −0.66 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.49 | −0.24 | −0.20 | −0.59 | −0.52 | −0.55 | −0.52 | −0.51 | −0.51 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.36 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.32 | −0.31 | −0.32 | −0.32 | −0.43 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.15 | −0.33 | −0.33 | · | −0.36 | −0.37 | · | −0.14 | −0.14 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Kenya is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +26.9 | 29.9 | 2.9 | 33 | 7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +21.4 | 26.1 | 4.8 | 39 | 38 | Intelligence & Assessment 6.8 · Foundational |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +19.9 | 21.4 | 1.4 | 27 | 47 | Energy Technologies 3.6 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Gainer | +12.4 | 18.1 | 5.7 | 40 | 8 | Energy Infrastructure 7.3 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +7.6 | 26.9 | 19.4 | 32 | 43 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +5.0 | 22.2 | 17.2 | 39 | 53 | Technical & Vocational Skills 7 · Foundational |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +2.5 | 13.0 | 10.5 | 33 | 127 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +2.3 | 10.0 | 7.6 | 34 | 67 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −5.9 | 4.9 | 10.7 | 22 | 70 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −14.2 | 5.7 | 19.9 | 16 | 72 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Kenya, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food and water failure | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 3.0% Possible · rank 6 | Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6 |
| Breakdown of state function | 9.1 Transitional → Nascent | 2.5% Possible · rank 99 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Majorplans fail | ×2.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7.7 |
| Loss of financial stability | 9.0 Transitional → Nascent | 2.0% Possible · rank 86 | Legitimacy rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 97 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6 |
| Health system failure | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 47 | Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 8.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 91 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 3.5 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 8.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 156 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7.7 |
| Collapse in energy security | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 55 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6 |
| Rule of law failure | 8.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 121 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7.7 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 43 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 8.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 111 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7.7 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 8.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 105 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 84 | Legitimacy rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 98 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 41 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6 |
| Defence readiness failure | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 58 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7.7 |
| Education pipeline failure | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 23 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 99 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 120 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6 |
| Broad fall in national security | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 80 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Maritime Power 3.5 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 8.4 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 101 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 97 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Quantum Technologies 1.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 81 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.6 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 81 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.0 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 81 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.1 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capable digital government | 9.2 Transitional → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 54 | Water-efficient food leap Major + Public service leap Extreme | ×1.9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4 |
| Trusted public institutions | 8.7 Foundational → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 52 | Water-efficient food leap Major + Public service leap Extreme | ×1.9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4 |
| Secure food and water supply | 7.6 Foundational → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 33 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Public service leap Major | ×1.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 8.9 Foundational → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 55 | Water-efficient food leap Severe + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.3 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 5.4 Nascent → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 56 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.3 | Energy Technologies 3.6 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 7.9 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 58 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 7.7 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 58 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 8.3 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 57 | Market access opening Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.9 | Technical & Vocational Skills 7 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 7.1 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 57 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 6.8 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 81 | Water-efficient food leap Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 |
| Research translated into value | 7.1 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 58 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.2 |
| Higher-value international business | 8.7 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 57 | Market access opening Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.7 | Technical & Vocational Skills 7 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 79 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 79 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 8.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 79 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 8.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 79 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 7.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 79 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Assured space services | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 79 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 79 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 79 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 79 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 8.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 79 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Wider international influence | 8.2 Foundational → Transitional | — Remote · rank 79 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.3 | Intelligence & Assessment 6.8 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 8.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 79 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 8.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 79 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |