Kiribati
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Acute fragility. Every scenario is severe; there is little capability left to lose. One of 14 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 77.3
- rank 7 of 197 · 3 years: 76.7
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −12.6
- rank 149 of 197 · 3 years: −12.1
- Shock absorbed
- 10%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.38
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 4of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Breadbasket failure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; adult obesity rate; internet users as a share of population; low real gdp per head; consumer price inflation; low life expectancy at birth; staple foods among the top five imports.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Kiribati’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.94 | −0.99 | −1.08 | −0.52 | ▼ 2 | 15 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.83 | −0.95 | −1.03 | −0.48 | ▼ 3 | 14 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.68 | −0.86 | −0.98 | −0.44 | ▲ 1 | 15 | Energy Infrastructure 0.3 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.68 | −0.81 | −0.91 | −0.41 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.87 | −0.75 | −0.79 | −0.39 | ▼ 3 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.70 | −0.65 | −0.76 | −0.36 | ▲ 2 | 15 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.57 | −0.65 | −0.76 | −0.34 | ▼ 1 | 15 | Industrial & Sectoral Base 0.3 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.52 | −0.59 | −0.66 | −0.29 | ▼ 1 | 11 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.71 | −0.56 | −0.60 | −0.29 | ▼ 3 | 12 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.44 | −0.46 | −0.52 | −0.23 | ▲ 3 | 12 | Investment Attraction & Projection 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.08 | −1.27 | −0.38 | −0.64 | −0.64 | −1.60 | −1.49 | −1.24 | −1.60 |
| AI labour shock | −0.08 | −0.53 | · | −1.45 | −1.13 | −1.54 | −1.30 | −1.26 | −1.23 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.08 | −1.06 | −0.24 | −1.09 | −1.04 | −1.12 | −1.19 | −0.89 | −1.02 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.08 | −0.49 | −0.25 | −1.22 | −0.98 | −1.14 | −1.06 | −1.04 | −1.04 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.08 | −0.70 | −0.37 | · | −1.41 | −1.54 | −1.36 | −0.61 | −0.70 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.08 | −0.47 | −0.34 | −0.44 | −0.95 | −1.42 | −1.17 | −0.44 | −0.50 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −0.94 | −0.21 | −0.79 | −0.36 | −0.89 | −0.95 | −0.82 | −0.82 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.08 | −0.35 | −0.21 | −0.35 | −0.82 | −0.79 | −0.82 | −0.80 | −1.10 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.08 | −1.05 | −0.38 | · | −1.21 | −1.36 | · | −0.50 | −0.50 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.06 | −0.33 | · | −0.33 | −0.30 | −0.67 | −1.08 | −0.76 | −0.65 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Kiribati is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +3.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 7 | 116 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +2.7 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 10 | 102 | Intelligence & Assessment 0.5 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +1.3 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 8 | 143 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −5.1 | 3.4 | 8.6 | 16 | 166 | Energy Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −11.6 | 6.5 | 18.2 | 9 | 125 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −12.0 | 6.7 | 18.7 | 9 | 156 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −12.5 | 5.1 | 17.6 | 7 | 158 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −22.5 | 6.7 | 29.2 | 9 | 182 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −23.9 | 1.6 | 25.5 | 2 | 126 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −30.5 | 2.5 | 33.0 | 5 | 184 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Kiribati, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 8.3% Likely · rank 3 | Regional war spillover Extreme | ×1.6 | Resource Infrastructure 0.5 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 4.3% Possible · rank 6 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severe | ×1.9 | Resource Infrastructure 0.5 |
| Rule of law failure | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 2.5% Possible · rank 5 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×1.8 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Food and water failure | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | 2.0% Possible · rank 16 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Severe | ×1.7 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 2.5 |
| Health system failure | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.8% Possible · rank 8 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severe | ×1.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 |
| Education pipeline failure | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 31 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 58 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×38 | — |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×8.0 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.0 | — |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.9 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | Already at the foot of the scale | — | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.7 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 188 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.3 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×11 | — |
| Breakdown of information trust | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Diplomatic isolation | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.9 | — |
| Loss of financial stability | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 187 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.9 | — |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.4 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×19 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 186 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 186 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.2 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.8 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×20 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×17 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.4 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 186 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.8 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×20 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 186 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.0 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Wider international influence | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Capable digital government | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 186 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 186 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Research translated into value | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.2 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 186 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |