Kosovo
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 35.8
- rank 51 of 197 · 3 years: 35.5
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −13.1
- rank 151 of 197 · 3 years: −13.0
- Shock absorbed
- 19%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.35
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 3of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Hybrid coercion, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; remittances relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; few months of imports covered by reserves.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Kosovo’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.94 | −1.07 | −1.28 | −0.58 | ▼ 6 | 21 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.79 | −0.92 | −1.15 | −0.52 | ▼ 4 | 19 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.75 | −0.85 | −1.06 | −0.48 | ▼ 4 | 16 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.83 | −0.83 | −0.95 | −0.44 | ▼ 4 | 17 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.60 | −0.70 | −0.84 | −0.38 | ▼ 2 | 9 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.74 | −0.64 | −0.77 | −0.34 | ▼ 11 | 14 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.60 | −0.62 | −0.83 | −0.36 | ▼ 1 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 3.5 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.63 | −0.61 | −0.77 | −0.34 | 0 | 13 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2.5 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.49 | −0.46 | −0.62 | −0.27 | ▲ 4 | 8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.2 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.38 | −0.46 | −0.58 | −0.25 | ▲ 1 | 7 | Monetary & Currency Capability 3.4 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.48 | −1.53 | −0.95 | −0.59 | −0.59 | −1.47 | −1.37 | −1.18 | −1.51 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.66 | −0.51 | −0.37 | −1.24 | −1.09 | −1.17 | −1.09 | −1.07 | −1.07 |
| AI labour shock | −0.66 | −0.44 | · | −1.19 | −1.04 | −1.22 | −1.04 | −1.02 | −1.02 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.72 | −0.64 | −0.99 | · | −1.42 | −1.33 | −1.24 | −0.53 | −0.61 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.59 | −0.38 | −0.30 | −0.38 | −0.88 | −0.85 | −0.88 | −0.86 | −1.18 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.40 | −1.10 | −0.88 | · | −1.22 | −1.26 | · | −0.46 | −0.46 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.93 | −0.27 | −0.74 | −0.33 | −0.83 | −0.89 | −0.76 | −0.76 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.30 | −0.41 | · | −0.41 | −0.37 | −0.83 | −1.36 | −0.95 | −0.85 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.23 | −0.30 | −0.49 | −0.27 | −0.64 | −0.89 | −0.73 | −0.27 | −0.31 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.22 | −0.57 | −0.18 | −0.54 | −0.52 | −0.55 | −0.59 | −0.44 | −0.50 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Kosovo is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +13.6 | 14.2 | 0.6 | 15 | 67 | Energy Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +10.5 | 12.4 | 1.9 | 25 | 64 | Intelligence & Assessment 3.8 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +9.4 | 12.7 | 3.3 | 17 | 95 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −0.7 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 20 | 80 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −9.2 | 5.5 | 14.7 | 30 | 188 | Energy Infrastructure 4.9 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −14.5 | 3.9 | 18.4 | 17 | 163 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −17.1 | 5.2 | 22.4 | 12 | 146 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −21.9 | 13.2 | 35.1 | 19 | 179 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −23.8 | 13.4 | 37.2 | 24 | 168 | Investment Attraction & Projection 4 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −29.9 | 6.3 | 36.2 | 7 | 153 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Kosovo, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | 4.9% Possible · rank 23 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severe | ×1.7 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 3.2% Possible · rank 10 | Regional war spillover Extreme | ×1.5 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Loss of financial stability | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 3.1% Possible · rank 33 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | 2.9% Possible · rank 13 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Major | ×2.0 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | 1.8% Possible · rank 9 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 1.7% Possible · rank 45 | Global funding seizure Major + Regional war spillover Extreme | ×2.2 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Rule of law failure | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.3% Possible · rank 27 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 21 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 13 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 3.0 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 31 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Major | ×1.6 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 20 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Health system failure | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 58 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 24 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extreme | ×2.0 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 2.7 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 21 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 31 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 |
| Food and water failure | 6.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 76 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 2.7 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 67 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 2.7 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 66 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 71 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 126 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 132 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 126 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×9.4 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 144 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.9 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 126 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.4 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 131 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.9 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.4 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 7.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.0 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 6.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.1 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 6.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Capable digital government | 7.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 7.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Research translated into value | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 125 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |