Kuwait
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 18.1
- rank 117 of 197 · 3 years: 17.8
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −10.1
- rank 125 of 197 · 3 years: −10.3
- Shock absorbed
- 31%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.22
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 7of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; urban share of population; internet users as a share of population; little renewable water per head; industry as a share of gdp; adult obesity rate.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Kuwait’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 1.00 | −0.97 | −1.46 | −0.64 | ▼ 4 | 27 | Maritime Power 3.3 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.89 | −0.88 | −1.11 | −0.49 | ▼ 4 | 25 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.5 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.70 | −0.75 | −1.04 | −0.46 | ▼ 1 | 21 | Artificial Intelligence 1.8 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.64 | −0.67 | −0.99 | −0.43 | ▲ 1 | 20 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.7 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.67 | −0.64 | −0.87 | −0.38 | ▼ 1 | 20 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.5 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.62 | −0.61 | −0.91 | −0.40 | ▼ 3 | 18 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.52 | −0.50 | −0.81 | −0.35 | 0 | 14 | Energy Infrastructure 6.2 · Foundational |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.62 | −0.49 | −0.69 | −0.30 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.9 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.38 | −0.32 | −0.53 | −0.23 | ▲ 3 | 12 | Energy Infrastructure 6.4 · Foundational |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Low 0.34 | −0.26 | −0.42 | −0.19 | ▲ 2 | 9 | Economic Output & Productivity 5.9 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.55 | −1.30 | −1.20 | −0.50 | −0.50 | −1.25 | −1.17 | −1.00 | −1.29 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −1.10 | −0.63 | −1.15 | · | −1.39 | −1.30 | −1.22 | −0.52 | −0.60 |
| AI labour shock | −0.82 | −0.38 | · | −1.00 | −0.88 | −1.04 | −0.88 | −0.86 | −0.86 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.71 | −0.36 | −0.29 | −0.87 | −0.76 | −0.81 | −0.76 | −0.74 | −0.74 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.37 | −0.41 | −0.74 | −0.37 | −0.87 | −1.21 | −0.99 | −0.37 | −0.42 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.76 | −0.31 | −0.28 | −0.31 | −0.73 | −0.70 | −0.73 | −0.72 | −0.98 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.27 | −0.63 | −0.22 | −0.59 | −0.56 | −0.60 | −0.64 | −0.48 | −0.55 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.36 | −0.79 | −0.79 | · | −0.88 | −0.91 | · | −0.33 | −0.33 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.48 | −0.15 | −0.38 | −0.17 | −0.43 | −0.45 | −0.39 | −0.39 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.15 | −0.17 | · | −0.17 | −0.15 | −0.35 | −0.57 | −0.40 | −0.35 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Kuwait is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +14.5 | 23.6 | 9.1 | 30 | 43 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +14.0 | 18.9 | 4.9 | 30 | 75 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +10.0 | 13.3 | 3.3 | 29 | 37 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −4.3 | 10.1 | 14.4 | 20 | 61 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −5.8 | 1.6 | 7.4 | 38 | 170 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −9.1 | 9.8 | 18.9 | 26 | 122 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −11.6 | 24.1 | 35.7 | 39 | 166 | Intelligence & Assessment 6.5 · Foundational |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −14.4 | 19.7 | 34.1 | 38 | 136 | Digital & Services Trade 6.8 · Foundational |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −18.7 | 8.3 | 27.1 | 13 | 89 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −48.6 | 8.8 | 57.3 | 25 | 178 | Energy Technologies 2 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Kuwait, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 9.3 Transitional → Foundational | 4.0% Possible · rank 37 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.0 | Maritime Power 5.3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 1.9% Possible · rank 56 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 5.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 10.7 Transitional → Foundational | 1.7% Possible · rank 104 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 5.3 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 1.6% Possible · rank 21 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×1.7 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 9.0 Foundational → Nascent | 1.4% Possible · rank 48 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×1.7 | Maritime Power 5.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 1.3% Possible · rank 16 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×1.8 | Maritime Power 5.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 6.4 Foundational → Nascent | 1.2% Possible · rank 27 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Rule of law failure | 6.4 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 35 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Defence readiness failure | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 5 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Maritime Power 5.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Possible · rank 28 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 5.3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 32 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 10.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 123 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 5.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 12 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 5.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 10.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 38 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Broad fall in national security | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 17 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 5.3 |
| Food and water failure | 10.1 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 68 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 8.3 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 8.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 40 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.2 | Maritime Power 5.3 |
| Health system failure | 11.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 126 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 88 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×3.0 | Maritime Power 5.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 107 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×3.0 | Maritime Power 5.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 123 | Regional war spillover Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Artificial Intelligence 3.3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 10.0 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 114 | Breadbasket failure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Artificial Intelligence 3.3 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 3.0 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 34 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Maritime Power 5.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 75 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.7 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 75 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.2 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 8.4 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 78 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 7.9 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 79 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×3.0 | Intelligence & Assessment 6.5 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 73 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 9.5 Transitional | — No route · rank 76 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 73 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 9.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 74 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 7.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 74 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 10.7 Transitional | — No route · rank 73 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 73 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 7.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 78 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Assured space services | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 73 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 73 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 73 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 85 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×2.8 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 10.1 Transitional | — No route · rank 80 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 73 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 7.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 75 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 73 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Wider international influence | 10.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 74 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.5 | — |
| Capable digital government | 10.2 Transitional | — No route · rank 90 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 88 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 11.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 73 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Research translated into value | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 74 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 7.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 80 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 73 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |