Kyrgyzstan
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 31.2
- rank 67 of 197 · 3 years: 30.7
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −18.3
- rank 174 of 197 · 3 years: −18.1
- Shock absorbed
- 20%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.30
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 6of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Hybrid coercion, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; remittances relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; consumer price inflation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Kyrgyzstan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.83 | −0.95 | −1.16 | −0.52 | ▼ 4 | 27 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.84 | −0.86 | −0.99 | −0.45 | ▼ 4 | 20 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.66 | −0.75 | −0.94 | −0.42 | ▼ 1 | 17 | Artificial Intelligence 0.1 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.76 | −0.74 | −0.96 | −0.42 | ▼ 2 | 21 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.2 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.60 | −0.72 | −0.90 | −0.40 | ▼ 1 | 17 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.53 | −0.61 | −0.74 | −0.34 | 0 | 14 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.68 | −0.59 | −0.73 | −0.32 | ▼ 5 | 16 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.53 | −0.54 | −0.74 | −0.32 | 0 | 15 | Transport Infrastructure 4.1 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.46 | −0.45 | −0.57 | −0.25 | ▲ 1 | 13 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2.6 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.34 | −0.41 | −0.53 | −0.23 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4.5 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.48 | −1.32 | −1.01 | −0.51 | −0.51 | −1.26 | −1.18 | −1.01 | −1.30 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.76 | −0.65 | −1.08 | · | −1.45 | −1.36 | −1.27 | −0.54 | −0.62 |
| AI labour shock | −0.67 | −0.39 | · | −1.04 | −0.91 | −1.07 | −0.91 | −0.89 | −0.89 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.38 | −0.48 | −0.79 | −0.44 | −1.02 | −1.43 | −1.17 | −0.44 | −0.50 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.63 | −0.39 | −0.29 | −0.95 | −0.83 | −0.89 | −0.83 | −0.82 | −0.82 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.60 | −0.33 | −0.26 | −0.33 | −0.76 | −0.73 | −0.76 | −0.74 | −1.02 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.41 | −1.00 | −0.83 | · | −1.11 | −1.14 | · | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.82 | −0.23 | −0.65 | −0.29 | −0.73 | −0.78 | −0.67 | −0.67 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.26 | −0.30 | · | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.61 | −0.99 | −0.70 | −0.62 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.21 | −0.51 | −0.16 | −0.48 | −0.46 | −0.49 | −0.53 | −0.40 | −0.45 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Kyrgyzstan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +0.9 | 8.3 | 7.4 | 31 | 87 | Financial System Depth & Access 5.4 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −11.4 | 10.2 | 21.6 | 16 | 155 | Energy Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Loser | −13.7 | 8.9 | 22.6 | 19 | 190 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −14.8 | 8.0 | 22.9 | 27 | 170 | Intelligence & Assessment 4.5 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −15.2 | 9.6 | 24.8 | 24 | 141 | Investment Attraction & Projection 3.7 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −15.7 | 11.2 | 26.9 | 18 | 167 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −15.7 | 11.6 | 27.3 | 20 | 157 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −22.8 | 6.3 | 29.1 | 18 | 192 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −24.8 | 2.8 | 27.6 | 12 | 171 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −30.9 | 3.7 | 34.6 | 7 | 156 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Kyrgyzstan, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 7.4 Foundational → Nascent | 4.4% Possible · rank 26 | Hybrid coercion Major + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 2.1% Possible · rank 40 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Loss of financial stability | 6.0 Nascent → Inception | 1.8% Possible · rank 94 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 1.6% Possible · rank 13 | Hybrid coercion Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 88 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 67 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.7 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Rule of law failure | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 37 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 27 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 52 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×1.8 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 49 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severe | ×2.1 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 2.7 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 40 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severe | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 87 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extreme | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Health system failure | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 153 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 121 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Food and water failure | 6.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 138 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 107 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 87 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 160 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Artificial Intelligence 1.7 |
| Education pipeline failure | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 184 | AI labour shock Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 124 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.9 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 130 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.8 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 124 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×8.2 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 142 | No route found · closest 3.0 of 3 | ×3.4 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 124 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 129 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.8 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.4 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.9 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.4 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.6 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.8 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.9 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.9 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.4 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Capable digital government | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| Research translated into value | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.4 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 123 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |