Laos
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 47.3
- rank 25 of 197 · 3 years: 47.0
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −12.8
- rank 150 of 197 · 3 years: −12.2
- Shock absorbed
- 15%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.38
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 8of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Trade bloc rupture, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; consumer price inflation; low life expectancy at birth; few months of imports covered by reserves; trade in goods and services relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Laos’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.95 | −1.10 | −1.30 | −0.58 | ▼ 6 | 25 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.81 | −0.92 | −1.07 | −0.49 | ▼ 6 | 24 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.67 | −0.79 | −0.92 | −0.41 | ▼ 4 | 19 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.73 | −0.76 | −0.84 | −0.38 | ▼ 2 | 10 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.63 | −0.76 | −0.90 | −0.41 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.66 | −0.67 | −0.80 | −0.35 | ▼ 1 | 15 | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 2 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.53 | −0.66 | −0.80 | −0.35 | ▲ 6 | 11 | Monetary & Currency Capability 3.4 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.55 | −0.61 | −0.77 | −0.33 | ▲ 2 | 12 | Financial System Depth & Access 3.1 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.54 | −0.58 | −0.68 | −0.30 | ▲ 6 | 12 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 1.3 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.64 | −0.56 | −0.66 | −0.29 | ▼ 5 | 10 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.38 | −1.56 | −1.10 | −0.60 | −0.60 | −1.50 | −1.40 | −1.20 | −1.55 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.48 | −0.51 | −0.41 | −0.51 | −1.20 | −1.16 | −1.20 | −1.17 | −1.62 |
| AI labour shock | −0.45 | −0.43 | · | −1.14 | −1.00 | −1.17 | −1.00 | −0.98 | −0.98 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.48 | −0.60 | −0.99 | · | −1.32 | −1.24 | −1.16 | −0.50 | −0.57 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.44 | −0.43 | −0.32 | −1.05 | −0.92 | −0.99 | −0.92 | −0.90 | −0.90 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.25 | −0.46 | · | −0.46 | −0.42 | −0.94 | −1.53 | −1.07 | −0.95 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.24 | −0.84 | −0.26 | −0.79 | −0.75 | −0.81 | −0.86 | −0.64 | −0.74 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.93 | −0.27 | −0.74 | −0.33 | −0.83 | −0.88 | −0.76 | −0.76 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.22 | −0.39 | −0.63 | −0.35 | −0.82 | −1.15 | −0.94 | −0.35 | −0.40 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.29 | −0.96 | −0.80 | · | −1.07 | −1.10 | · | −0.40 | −0.40 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Laos is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +10.7 | 12.8 | 2.0 | 21 | 61 | Intelligence & Assessment 3.3 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +10.3 | 12.1 | 1.8 | 13 | 80 | Energy Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +4.5 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 14 | 108 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −0.3 | 7.7 | 7.9 | 19 | 100 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 2.7 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −8.1 | 7.3 | 15.4 | 14 | 137 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −12.3 | 8.1 | 20.4 | 12 | 157 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −19.4 | 16.5 | 35.8 | 22 | 160 | Investment Attraction & Projection 3.7 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −19.6 | 5.8 | 25.5 | 14 | 171 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −33.5 | 7.6 | 41.1 | 11 | 190 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −33.8 | 3.4 | 37.1 | 5 | 169 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Laos, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 4.0% Possible · rank 41 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severe | ×1.7 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Loss of financial stability | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 3.4% Possible · rank 26 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severe | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.8 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 3.3% Possible · rank 8 | Regional war spillover Extreme | ×1.4 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 2.4% Possible · rank 24 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Major | ×2.0 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 2.2% Possible · rank 23 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Global funding seizure Extreme | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.8 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 2.0% Possible · rank 5 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severe | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.8 |
| Collapse in energy security | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 22 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.6 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Possible · rank 6 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Major | ×1.9 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Health system failure | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 53 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 |
| Food and water failure | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 48 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.8 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 19 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extreme | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 24 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 59 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 128 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 73 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 151 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.8 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 105 | Breadbasket failure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Artificial Intelligence 1 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 93 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 2.3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 147 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 156 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.2 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 157 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.7 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 156 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×21 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 163 | No route found · closest 2.6 of 3 | ×3.3 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 156 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 157 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.2 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 156 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 156 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 156 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 5.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 156 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 156 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.9 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 156 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 156 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 156 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 156 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 156 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 156 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 2.2 Inception | — No route · rank 156 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.1 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 156 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 156 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 156 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 156 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 156 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 156 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 156 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Capable digital government | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 156 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 156 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 156 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |
| Research translated into value | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 156 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 156 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 156 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |