Latvia
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 14.7
- rank 136 of 197 · 3 years: 14.6
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +8.2
- rank 44 of 197 · 3 years: +8.4
- Shock absorbed
- 40%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.18
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 8of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Semiconductors & Advanced Computing
- weakest point in 1 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Hybrid coercion, Regional war spillover, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: land border with russia or belarus; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; share of population aged 65 and over; internet users as a share of population; refugees hosted per head of population; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; few months of imports covered by reserves.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Latvia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.95 | −0.89 | −1.38 | −0.60 | ▼ 2 | 32 | Resource Infrastructure 2.9 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.86 | −0.79 | −1.33 | −0.58 | 0 | 31 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.1 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.88 | −0.72 | −1.12 | −0.49 | 0 | 27 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.3 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.83 | −0.71 | −1.23 | −0.54 | 0 | 30 | Artificial Intelligence 4.2 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.94 | −0.64 | −1.04 | −0.45 | 0 | 21 | Maritime Power 3 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.59 | −0.55 | −0.88 | −0.39 | 0 | 28 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.1 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.70 | −0.48 | −0.88 | −0.38 | 0 | 21 | Economic Output & Productivity 7.9 · Foundational |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.34 | −0.30 | −0.54 | −0.23 | 0 | 16 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7.9 · Foundational |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.44 | −0.29 | −0.57 | −0.25 | ▲ 1 | 18 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9 · Foundational |
| Core disaster S07 | Low 0.32 | −0.24 | −0.44 | −0.19 | ▲ 1 | 15 | Energy Infrastructure 8.6 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.50 | −1.19 | −1.10 | −0.46 | −0.46 | −1.14 | −1.07 | −0.92 | −1.18 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.84 | −0.42 | −0.34 | −1.01 | −0.89 | −0.95 | −0.89 | −0.87 | −0.87 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.93 | −0.51 | −0.93 | · | −1.13 | −1.06 | −0.99 | −0.42 | −0.48 |
| AI labour shock | −0.78 | −0.36 | · | −0.95 | −0.83 | −0.98 | −0.83 | −0.81 | −0.81 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.47 | −1.03 | −1.03 | · | −1.15 | −1.18 | · | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.72 | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.28 | −0.65 | −0.63 | −0.65 | −0.64 | −0.88 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.29 | −0.32 | · | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.65 | −1.05 | −0.74 | −0.66 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.16 | −0.38 | −0.13 | −0.36 | −0.34 | −0.36 | −0.39 | −0.29 | −0.33 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.17 | −0.19 | −0.34 | −0.17 | −0.40 | −0.56 | −0.46 | −0.17 | −0.20 |
| Core disaster | −0.01 | −0.35 | −0.11 | −0.28 | −0.13 | −0.32 | −0.34 | −0.29 | −0.29 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Latvia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +33.2 | 35.2 | 2.0 | 43 | 39 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +24.5 | 27.8 | 3.3 | 33 | 40 | Energy Technologies 3.2 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +23.5 | 26.4 | 2.9 | 50 | 30 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.5 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +8.7 | 13.8 | 5.1 | 49 | 38 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 7 · Foundational |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +6.9 | 25.3 | 18.3 | 52 | 46 | Energy Infrastructure 9.1 · Transitional |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +4.6 | 33.7 | 29.2 | 44 | 55 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | +4.3 | 21.1 | 16.9 | 24 | 42 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | +1.6 | 15.1 | 13.5 | 31 | 43 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.2 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −3.4 | 5.8 | 9.2 | 54 | 148 | Energy Infrastructure 9.1 · Transitional |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −3.6 | 6.9 | 10.4 | 42 | 123 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Latvia, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 13.5 Established → Transitional | 5.6% Likely · rank 18 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 3.0% Possible · rank 4 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 2.5% Possible · rank 2 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 13.4 Established → Transitional | 2.2% Possible · rank 29 | Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9 |
| Loss of financial stability | 12.3 Established → Transitional | 2.2% Possible · rank 75 | Global funding seizure Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Resource Infrastructure 4.8 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 11.3 Transitional → Foundational | 1.9% Possible · rank 23 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×1.9 | Resource Infrastructure 4.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 13.5 Established → Transitional | 1.5% Possible · rank 17 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 11.8 Transitional → Foundational | 1.4% Possible · rank 68 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9.2 |
| Broad fall in national security | 6.1 Foundational → Inception | 1.4% Possible · rank 2 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Resource Infrastructure 4.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 1.4% Possible · rank 1 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Resource Infrastructure 4.8 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 10.7 Transitional → Foundational | 1.2% Possible · rank 28 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 9.3 Transitional → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 16 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 9.7 Transitional → Foundational | 1.0% Possible · rank 5 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Resource Infrastructure 4.8 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 9.2 Transitional → Nascent | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 22 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 10.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 9 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9 |
| Health system failure | 12.0 Established → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 61 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 11.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 48 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Resource Infrastructure 4.8 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 10.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 35 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 27 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Food and water failure | 11.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 72 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 12.4 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 18 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 29 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Quantum Technologies 3.3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 13.5 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 54 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 56 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 56 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.3 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 9.9 Transitional → Transitional | 2.2% Possible · rank 47 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Capable digital government | 13.1 Established → Established | 1.1% Possible · rank 48 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 13.4 Established → Established | 1.0% Possible · rank 46 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 6.2 Foundational → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 43 | Market access opening Major + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.8 | Energy Technologies 3.2 |
| Trusted public institutions | 13.4 Established → Advanced | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 54 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 3.9 Nascent → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 48 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×2.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.2 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 12.4 Established → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 45 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 9.7 Transitional → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 44 | Market access opening Extreme + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×2.6 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.5 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 4.2 Nascent → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 52 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Research translated into value | 10.5 Transitional → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 43 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 11.2 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 47 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.5 | Energy Infrastructure 9.1 |
| Higher-value international business | 11.2 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 45 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.4 | Energy Infrastructure 9.1 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 11.6 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 47 | Market access opening Extreme + Great-power détente Extreme | ×2.8 | Energy Infrastructure 9.1 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 7.2 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 45 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 12.0 Established → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 49 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Stronger information environment | 9.5 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 43 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 11.8 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 48 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 11.1 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 45 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.9 | Energy Technologies 3.2 |
| Wider international influence | 9.2 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 45 | Great-power détente Extreme + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×2.3 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.5 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 9.3 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 46 | Middle East settlement Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 10.8 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 49 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.8 | Energy Technologies 3.2 |
| Secure food and water supply | 11.2 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 60 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Broad rise in national security | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 48 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Assured space services | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 48 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 48 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |