Lebanon
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 36.2
- rank 49 of 197 · 3 years: 35.7
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −1.4
- rank 71 of 197 · 3 years: −1.2
- Shock absorbed
- 17%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.37
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance
- weakest point in 4 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; refugees hosted per head of population; remittances relative to gdp; public debt relative to gdp; consumer price inflation; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; adult obesity rate; urban share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Lebanon’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.99 | −1.22 | −1.42 | −0.63 | ▼ 11 | 32 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.75 | −0.92 | −1.15 | −0.51 | ▼ 5 | 26 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.2 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.87 | −0.89 | −1.12 | −0.49 | ▼ 2 | 27 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 0.9 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.80 | −0.85 | −0.99 | −0.44 | ▼ 5 | 24 | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.60 | −0.74 | −0.88 | −0.39 | ▼ 1 | 20 | Artificial Intelligence 1.2 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.67 | −0.73 | −0.84 | −0.37 | ▼ 3 | 22 | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0.2 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.47 | −0.61 | −0.74 | −0.32 | ▼ 2 | 17 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.8 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.48 | −0.59 | −0.70 | −0.31 | ▲ 2 | 17 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.53 | −0.59 | −0.75 | −0.33 | 0 | 20 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.7 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.57 | −0.52 | −0.63 | −0.28 | ▼ 4 | 20 | Maritime Power 1.6 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.65 | −1.64 | −1.46 | −0.63 | −0.63 | −1.58 | −1.47 | −1.26 | −1.62 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.88 | −0.49 | −0.40 | −1.20 | −1.05 | −1.12 | −1.05 | −1.03 | −1.03 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.50 | −0.57 | −1.04 | −0.52 | −1.21 | −1.69 | −1.39 | −0.52 | −0.60 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.98 | −0.61 | −1.13 | · | −1.37 | −1.28 | −1.19 | −0.51 | −0.59 |
| AI labour shock | −0.76 | −0.37 | · | −1.00 | −0.87 | −1.03 | −0.87 | −0.86 | −0.86 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.43 | −0.48 | · | −0.49 | −0.44 | −0.99 | −1.61 | −1.13 | −1.01 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.32 | −0.75 | −0.26 | −0.71 | −0.68 | −0.72 | −0.77 | −0.58 | −0.66 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.69 | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.30 | −0.70 | −0.68 | −0.70 | −0.69 | −0.95 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.89 | −0.29 | −0.71 | −0.32 | −0.79 | −0.85 | −0.73 | −0.73 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.38 | −0.84 | −0.84 | · | −0.93 | −0.96 | · | −0.35 | −0.35 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Lebanon is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +18.1 | 22.2 | 4.1 | 25 | 42 | Energy Infrastructure 4.3 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +10.5 | 17.5 | 7.1 | 23 | 90 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.6 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +7.8 | 11.7 | 3.9 | 22 | 55 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.6 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +4.6 | 13.6 | 9.0 | 23 | 55 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 4 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +3.9 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 15 | 113 | Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −6.5 | 5.9 | 12.4 | 21 | 178 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −6.6 | 6.4 | 13.0 | 13 | 74 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | −9.0 | 6.2 | 15.2 | 10 | 64 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −11.5 | 10.0 | 21.5 | 20 | 144 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −16.5 | 17.8 | 34.3 | 21 | 163 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3 · Nascent |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Lebanon, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 6.1% Likely · rank 11 | Regional war spillover Extreme | ×1.6 | Resource Infrastructure 3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 3.0% Possible · rank 17 | Regional war spillover Extreme | ×1.4 | Resource Infrastructure 3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 3.0% Possible · rank 12 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.8 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4 |
| Rule of law failure | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 2.4% Possible · rank 6 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×1.7 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 6.4 Foundational → Nascent | 1.4% Possible · rank 24 | Hybrid coercion Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.7 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 41 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×1.8 | Quantum Technologies 0.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 7 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×1.9 | Resource Infrastructure 3 |
| Health system failure | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 70 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.7 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 6.0 Foundational → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 50 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.8 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 133 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×1.9 | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 2 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 55 | Global funding seizure Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Resource Infrastructure 3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 33 | Global funding seizure Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Resource Infrastructure 3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 26 | Global funding seizure Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Resource Infrastructure 3 |
| Food and water failure | 6.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 62 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 60 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.8 |
| Loss of financial stability | 3.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 178 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×1.7 | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 2 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 5.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 64 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severe | ×1.8 | Resource Infrastructure 3 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 59 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 4 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 7.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 86 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 72 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 72 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 128 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.1 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 128 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.5 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 139 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.4 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 128 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.8 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.7 Inception | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 7.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 6.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 7.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×2.7 | — |
| Capable digital government | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.4 | — |
| Research translated into value | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |