Liberia
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 41.7
- rank 37 of 197 · 3 years: 41.6
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −10.7
- rank 135 of 197 · 3 years: −10.7
- Shock absorbed
- 13%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.28
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Breadbasket failure, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head; remittances relative to gdp; share of population aged under 15; consumer price inflation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Liberia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.73 | −0.86 | −0.97 | −0.44 | ▼ 3 | 21 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.63 | −0.80 | −0.94 | −0.42 | ▼ 2 | 24 | Energy Infrastructure 1.3 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.77 | −0.75 | −0.92 | −0.41 | ▼ 2 | 17 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 1.1 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.56 | −0.68 | −0.78 | −0.35 | 0 | 16 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.55 | −0.57 | −0.66 | −0.29 | ▼ 1 | 14 | Economic Output & Productivity 1.1 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.42 | −0.51 | −0.57 | −0.25 | ▲ 4 | 13 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.41 | −0.48 | −0.56 | −0.25 | ▲ 4 | 17 | Energy Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.43 | −0.45 | −0.48 | −0.22 | ▲ 2 | 7 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.36 | −0.42 | −0.48 | −0.21 | ▲ 3 | 10 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.26 | −0.24 | −0.27 | −0.12 | ▲ 3 | 5 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.17 | −1.23 | −0.84 | −0.48 | −0.48 | −1.20 | −1.12 | −0.96 | −1.23 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.15 | −1.04 | −0.30 | −0.98 | −0.93 | −1.00 | −1.07 | −0.80 | −0.91 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.17 | −0.51 | −0.74 | −0.47 | −1.09 | −1.51 | −1.24 | −0.47 | −0.53 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.23 | −0.40 | −0.28 | −0.97 | −0.85 | −0.91 | −0.85 | −0.83 | −0.83 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.14 | −0.39 | · | −0.39 | −0.35 | −0.80 | −1.30 | −0.91 | −0.81 |
| AI labour shock | −0.18 | −0.28 | · | −0.74 | −0.65 | −0.77 | −0.65 | −0.64 | −0.64 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.72 | −0.21 | −0.57 | −0.26 | −0.64 | −0.69 | −0.59 | −0.59 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.21 | −0.36 | −0.56 | · | −0.80 | −0.75 | −0.70 | −0.30 | −0.34 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.20 | −0.24 | −0.19 | −0.24 | −0.56 | −0.54 | −0.56 | −0.54 | −0.75 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.09 | −0.42 | −0.38 | · | −0.47 | −0.48 | · | −0.18 | −0.18 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Liberia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +3.2 | 7.4 | 4.2 | 10 | 86 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +1.8 | 10.1 | 8.2 | 19 | 75 | Energy Infrastructure 2.9 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | −0.2 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 9 | 131 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −2.8 | 6.7 | 9.6 | 16 | 138 | Intelligence & Assessment 2.2 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −4.7 | 3.8 | 8.5 | 12 | 102 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −9.1 | 6.2 | 15.3 | 12 | 181 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −10.5 | 2.3 | 12.9 | 9 | 98 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −14.2 | 11.7 | 25.9 | 12 | 164 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −21.9 | 11.4 | 33.3 | 16 | 165 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2.7 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −33.1 | 1.1 | 34.1 | 3 | 165 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Liberia, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 2.7% Possible · rank 89 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | 1.9% Possible · rank 89 | Global funding seizure Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Food and water failure | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 26 | Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 94 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Possible · rank 123 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Health system failure | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 57 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 81 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 105 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Major | ×1.8 | Maritime Power 1.8 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 137 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 152 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Maritime Power 1.8 |
| Education pipeline failure | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 105 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×3.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 162 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Maritime Power 1.8 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 178 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 172 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.6 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 174 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×2.8 | — |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 172 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.1 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 172 | Already at the foot of the scale | — | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 172 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 2.5 of 3 | ×3.8 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 176 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 172 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 173 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.8 | — |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 179 | No route found · closest 3.0 of 3 | ×2.8 | — |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 174 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.1 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.7 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.6 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.4 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.8 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.6 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.8 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.9 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.6 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.6 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.6 | — |
| Capable digital government | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Research translated into value | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.8 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 172 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |