Liechtenstein
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 21.4
- rank 97 of 197 · 3 years: 21.2
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −4.6
- rank 90 of 197 · 3 years: −4.5
- Shock absorbed
- 29%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.26
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Intelligence & Assessment
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Trade bloc rupture, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; internet users as a share of population; industry as a share of gdp; share of population aged 65 and over; refugees hosted per head of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Liechtenstein’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 1.00 | −1.00 | −1.23 | −0.56 | ▼ 7 | 29 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.97 | −0.91 | −1.29 | −0.59 | ▼ 5 | 24 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 1.00 | −0.78 | −1.22 | −0.54 | ▼ 4 | 17 | Monetary & Currency Capability 3.4 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.88 | −0.73 | −0.93 | −0.44 | ▼ 1 | 19 | Intelligence & Assessment 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.81 | −0.71 | −1.15 | −0.52 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Artificial Intelligence 0.8 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.65 | −0.66 | −0.93 | −0.42 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.67 | −0.54 | −0.62 | −0.29 | ▼ 4 | 10 | Intelligence & Assessment 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.41 | −0.28 | −0.48 | −0.22 | ▲ 5 | 8 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.28 | −0.28 | −0.42 | −0.18 | ▲ 3 | 7 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 3.7 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | Low 0.23 | −0.18 | −0.32 | −0.14 | ▲ 6 | 5 | Transport Infrastructure 4.2 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.48 | −1.28 | −0.33 | −0.61 | −0.61 | −1.52 | −1.42 | −1.22 | −1.56 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.82 | −0.47 | −0.18 | −0.50 | −1.18 | −1.14 | −1.18 | −1.15 | −1.59 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.39 | −0.50 | · | −0.53 | −0.48 | −1.08 | −1.75 | −1.23 | −1.09 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.78 | −0.57 | −0.38 | · | −1.34 | −1.26 | −1.18 | −0.50 | −0.58 |
| AI labour shock | −0.62 | −0.35 | · | −0.99 | −0.87 | −1.02 | −0.87 | −0.85 | −0.85 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.57 | −0.36 | −0.15 | −0.90 | −0.79 | −0.85 | −0.79 | −0.77 | −0.77 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.39 | −0.91 | −0.38 | · | −1.13 | −1.16 | · | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.16 | −0.20 | −0.15 | −0.18 | −0.42 | −0.58 | −0.48 | −0.18 | −0.20 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.14 | −0.35 | −0.07 | −0.34 | −0.32 | −0.35 | −0.37 | −0.28 | −0.32 |
| Core disaster | −0.01 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.25 | −0.27 | −0.23 | −0.23 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Liechtenstein is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +20.9 | 21.2 | 0.4 | 22 | 43 | Resource Infrastructure 0.5 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +13.3 | 15.6 | 2.3 | 26 | 79 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +8.0 | 9.2 | 1.3 | 22 | 74 | Intelligence & Assessment 1.3 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +0.7 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 32 | 73 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −5.0 | 23.5 | 28.5 | 28 | 105 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −6.1 | 12.0 | 18.0 | 20 | 72 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −9.5 | 2.1 | 11.6 | 27 | 144 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Loser | −11.3 | 0.0 | 11.3 | 40 | 193 | Energy Infrastructure 4.8 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −15.1 | 12.0 | 27.1 | 14 | 74 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −18.9 | 12.8 | 31.6 | 36 | 156 | Transport Infrastructure 4.6 · Nascent |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Liechtenstein, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 9.1 Transitional → Foundational | 5.5% Likely · rank 5 | Global funding seizure Severeplans fail | ×1.6 | Monetary & Currency Capability 5.3 |
| Breakdown of state function | 12.9 Established → Transitional | 4.5% Possible · rank 25 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severe | ×1.6 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 4.0% Possible · rank 1 | Regional war spillover Extreme | ×1.4 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 9.6 Transitional → Foundational | 3.6% Possible · rank 1 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severe | ×1.9 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.5 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 12.7 Established → Transitional | 3.3% Possible · rank 10 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 9.3 Transitional → Foundational | 2.6% Possible · rank 13 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severe | ×1.7 | Monetary & Currency Capability 5.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.9% Possible · rank 3 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Global funding seizure Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Monetary & Currency Capability 5.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 10.2 Transitional → Foundational | 1.6% Possible · rank 2 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Monetary & Currency Capability 5.3 |
| Rule of law failure | 12.8 Established → Transitional | 1.6% Possible · rank 14 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 6.4 Foundational → Nascent | 1.0% Possible · rank 49 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.2 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.5 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 34 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.5 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 42 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Health system failure | 12.5 Established → Transitional | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 103 | Global funding seizure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 51 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Intelligence & Assessment 1.3 |
| Food and water failure | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 108 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Intelligence & Assessment 1.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 11.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 47 | Global funding seizure Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Artificial Intelligence 2.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 6.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 109 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Education pipeline failure | 12.8 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 90 | Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Artificial Intelligence 2.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 80 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.6 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 94 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×7.8 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 80 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.6 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 128 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 125 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×36 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 80 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×27 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 105 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.6 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 8.8 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 80 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 78 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 79 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 78 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 11.6 Transitional | — No route · rank 79 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 78 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 12.7 Established | — No route · rank 84 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 9.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 78 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 10.2 Transitional | — No route · rank 78 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 9.6 Transitional | — No route · rank 81 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 78 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 78 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 6.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 78 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 88 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.4 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 7.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 83 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 78 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 12.3 Established | — No route · rank 79 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 78 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 78 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Capable digital government | 11.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 92 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 12.4 Established | — No route · rank 90 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 9.5 Transitional | — No route · rank 78 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Research translated into value | 9.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 79 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 10.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 83 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 10.6 Transitional | — No route · rank 78 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |