Malaysia
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 10.2
- rank 163 of 197 · 3 years: 10.0
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +11.3
- rank 39 of 197 · 3 years: +11.1
- Shock absorbed
- 44%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.11
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 8of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Energy Infrastructure
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Hybrid coercion, Trade bloc rupture, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; internet users as a share of population; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; industry as a share of gdp; urban share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Malaysia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.88 | −0.72 | −1.11 | −0.49 | 0 | 18 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.9 · Foundational |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.81 | −0.70 | −1.26 | −0.55 | ▲ 1 | 23 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8 · Foundational |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.84 | −0.66 | −1.25 | −0.55 | 0 | 19 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 7.8 · Foundational |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.81 | −0.66 | −1.20 | −0.53 | 0 | 16 | Artificial Intelligence 7 · Foundational |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.76 | −0.51 | −0.85 | −0.37 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 7.6 · Foundational |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.63 | −0.45 | −0.88 | −0.39 | 0 | 14 | Energy Infrastructure 10 · Transitional |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Medium 0.52 | −0.42 | −0.76 | −0.33 | ▲ 3 | 11 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 5.1 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.65 | −0.40 | −0.81 | −0.36 | ▲ 1 | 9 | Labour & Employment 10.3 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.46 | −0.36 | −0.59 | −0.26 | 0 | 9 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 8.5 · Foundational |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.30 | −0.24 | −0.47 | −0.21 | ▲ 2 | 7 | Energy Infrastructure 10.5 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.93 | −0.51 | −0.93 | · | −1.13 | −1.06 | −0.99 | −0.42 | −0.48 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.74 | −0.37 | −0.30 | −0.90 | −0.79 | −0.84 | −0.79 | −0.77 | −0.77 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.87 | −0.33 | −0.30 | −0.33 | −0.78 | −0.75 | −0.78 | −0.76 | −1.05 |
| AI labour shock | −0.73 | −0.33 | · | −0.89 | −0.78 | −0.92 | −0.78 | −0.76 | −0.76 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.38 | −0.82 | −0.82 | · | −0.91 | −0.94 | · | −0.34 | −0.34 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.68 | −0.22 | −0.54 | −0.24 | −0.60 | −0.64 | −0.55 | −0.55 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.24 | −0.56 | −0.52 | −0.21 | −0.21 | −0.54 | −0.50 | −0.43 | −0.55 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.24 | −0.27 | · | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.54 | −0.89 | −0.62 | −0.55 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.21 | −0.23 | −0.42 | −0.21 | −0.49 | −0.68 | −0.55 | −0.21 | −0.24 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.13 | −0.30 | −0.10 | −0.28 | −0.27 | −0.29 | −0.31 | −0.23 | −0.26 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Malaysia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +40.5 | 42.2 | 1.8 | 54 | 30 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.4 · Transitional |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +22.7 | 42.4 | 19.7 | 61 | 11 | Energy Infrastructure 11 · Transitional |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Gainer | +19.2 | 41.5 | 22.3 | 57 | 20 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 · Transitional |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Gainer | +17.5 | 35.6 | 18.1 | 45 | 27 | Robotics & Autonomous Systems 7.8 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Gainer | +12.5 | 24.0 | 11.5 | 50 | 25 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 8.6 · Foundational |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +12.3 | 31.0 | 18.7 | 55 | 47 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.4 · Transitional |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +9.8 | 16.3 | 6.6 | 55 | 40 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.4 · Transitional |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +4.7 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 54 | 36 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 9.3 · Transitional |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −1.4 | 16.9 | 18.3 | 55 | 129 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 10 · Transitional |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | −9.7 | 22.0 | 31.7 | 50 | 152 | Energy Technologies 7.6 · Foundational |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Malaysia, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 12.0 Established → Foundational | 2.1% Possible · rank 123 | Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 8.7 Foundational → Nascent | 1.6% Possible · rank 19 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Quantum Technologies 4 |
| Loss of financial stability | 14.0 Established → Transitional | 1.5% Possible · rank 119 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 12.2 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 11.2 Transitional → Foundational | 1.3% Possible · rank 96 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Quantum Technologies 4 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 10.9 Transitional → Foundational | 1.3% Possible · rank 8 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 4 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 10.2 Transitional → Foundational | 1.2% Possible · rank 35 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 4 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 11.0 Transitional → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 14 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 4 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 13.8 Established → Transitional | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 125 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Quantum Technologies 4 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 14.0 Established → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 53 | Trade bloc rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Economic Leverage & Dependence 12 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 12.4 Established → Transitional | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 28 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 4 |
| Rule of law failure | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 104 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 4 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 2 | Trade bloc rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Economic Leverage & Dependence 12 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 1 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Economic Leverage & Dependence 12 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 14.0 Established → Transitional | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 116 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Economic Leverage & Dependence 12 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 12.9 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 53 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.4 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 12.5 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 50 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.4 |
| Broad fall in national security | 8.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 35 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Quantum Technologies 4 |
| Health system failure | 12.0 Established → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 140 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.4 |
| Defence readiness failure | 10.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 40 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×3.5 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9 |
| Collapse in energy security | 11.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 97 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.8 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 12.9 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Remote · rank 103 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 12.1 Established → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 97 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.4 |
| Food and water failure | 12.8 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 166 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×4.1 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 12.2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 12.5 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 96 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.4 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 49 | No route found · closest 2.7 of 3 | ×5.3 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 14.0 Established → Advanced | 6.9% Likely · rank 13 | Market access opening Major + Great-power détente Severe | ×1.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 9.1 Transitional → Transitional | 6.7% Likely · rank 22 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 |
| Higher-value international business | 13.3 Established → Established | 4.8% Possible · rank 13 | Market access opening Severe + Great-power détente Major | ×1.4 | Energy Infrastructure 11 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 14.5 Established → Advanced | 4.8% Possible · rank 17 | Market access opening Major + Great-power détente Severe | ×1.2 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 |
| Capable digital government | 12.9 Established → Established | 4.8% Possible · rank 29 | Market access opening Severe + Public service leap Severe | ×1.8 | Energy Infrastructure 11 |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 11.1 Transitional → Established | 4.6% Possible · rank 36 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.4 |
| Trusted public institutions | 10.4 Transitional → Transitional | 3.6% Possible · rank 29 | Market access opening Severe + Public service leap Severe | ×1.9 | Energy Infrastructure 11 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 9.3 Transitional → Transitional | 2.1% Possible · rank 38 | Market access opening Extreme + Great-power détente Major | ×1.9 | Energy Infrastructure 11 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 11.2 Transitional → Established | 1.9% Possible · rank 37 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.4 |
| Research translated into value | 12.3 Established → Established | 1.6% Possible · rank 27 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.7 | Robotics & Autonomous Systems 7.8 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 7.5 Foundational → Transitional | 1.6% Possible · rank 28 | Great-power détente Major + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.9 | Robotics & Autonomous Systems 7.8 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 11.6 Transitional → Established | 1.1% Possible · rank 24 | Market access opening Extreme + Public service leap Major | ×1.9 | Energy Infrastructure 11 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 12.5 Established → Established | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 27 | Market access opening Severe + Great-power détente Extreme | ×2.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 12.1 Established → Established | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 31 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.4 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 10.8 Transitional → Established | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 28 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.9 | Robotics & Autonomous Systems 7.8 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 10.9 Transitional → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 21 | Market access opening Major + Great-power détente Extreme | ×1.8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 |
| Stronger information environment | 10.8 Transitional → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 19 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.4 |
| Wider international influence | 11.0 Transitional → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 23 | Market access opening Major + Great-power détente Extreme | ×1.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 12.9 Established → Established | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 32 | Market access opening Extreme + Automated discovery step Major | ×2.0 | Energy Infrastructure 11 |
| Secure food and water supply | 12.8 Established → Established | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 34 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.4 |
| Broad rise in national security | 8.4 Foundational → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 19 | Great-power détente Extreme + Automated discovery step Severe | ×2.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 |
| More deployable joint force | 10.5 Transitional → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 19 | Great-power détente Extreme + Automated discovery step Severe | ×2.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 |
| Assured space services | 6.3 Foundational → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 25 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.4 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 13.8 Established | — No route · rank 56 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×2.8 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 13.9 Established | — No route · rank 52 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |