Maldives
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 35.1
- rank 53 of 197 · 3 years: 34.8
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −4.4
- rank 88 of 197 · 3 years: −4.1
- Shock absorbed
- 21%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.33
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 6of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; little renewable water per head; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; few months of imports covered by reserves; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Maldives’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.98 | −1.08 | −1.29 | −0.59 | ▼ 5 | 27 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.85 | −0.92 | −1.16 | −0.52 | ▼ 6 | 26 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.85 | −0.79 | −1.02 | −0.45 | ▼ 3 | 21 | Economic Output & Productivity 2.5 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.69 | −0.76 | −0.98 | −0.44 | ▲ 1 | 22 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.63 | −0.72 | −0.95 | −0.42 | ▼ 2 | 23 | Energy Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.72 | −0.70 | −0.82 | −0.37 | ▲ 2 | 15 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.68 | −0.62 | −0.83 | −0.37 | ▲ 2 | 23 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 2.5 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.46 | −0.51 | −0.62 | −0.28 | ▲ 4 | 18 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.50 | −0.45 | −0.53 | −0.24 | ▼ 1 | 11 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.43 | −0.43 | −0.61 | −0.27 | ▲ 4 | 18 | Energy Infrastructure 3 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.31 | −1.39 | −1.12 | −0.61 | −0.61 | −1.52 | −1.42 | −1.22 | −1.56 |
| AI labour shock | −0.46 | −0.50 | · | −1.34 | −1.17 | −1.38 | −1.17 | −1.15 | −1.15 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.24 | −0.54 | · | −0.55 | −0.49 | −1.11 | −1.80 | −1.26 | −1.12 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.38 | −0.43 | −0.35 | −1.05 | −0.92 | −0.98 | −0.92 | −0.90 | −0.90 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.22 | −0.92 | −0.32 | −0.87 | −0.83 | −0.89 | −0.95 | −0.71 | −0.81 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.43 | −0.55 | −0.91 | · | −1.23 | −1.15 | −1.07 | −0.46 | −0.53 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.20 | −0.41 | −0.70 | −0.38 | −0.88 | −1.22 | −1.00 | −0.38 | −0.43 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.31 | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.28 | −0.66 | −0.64 | −0.66 | −0.65 | −0.89 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.20 | −0.75 | −0.72 | · | −0.84 | −0.86 | · | −0.31 | −0.31 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.64 | −0.21 | −0.51 | −0.23 | −0.57 | −0.61 | −0.52 | −0.52 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Maldives is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +6.4 | 18.7 | 12.3 | 25 | 50 | Energy Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +6.3 | 10.0 | 3.7 | 17 | 65 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +5.8 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 18 | 105 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +1.5 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 29 | 78 | Energy Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +0.9 | 11.3 | 10.4 | 23 | 115 | Intelligence & Assessment 3 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | −4.0 | 10.9 | 14.9 | 14 | 144 | Resource Infrastructure 0.8 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −10.6 | 10.2 | 20.8 | 19 | 130 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −10.9 | 11.0 | 21.9 | 19 | 139 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −16.9 | 4.8 | 21.6 | 11 | 141 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −20.8 | 3.5 | 24.2 | 6 | 100 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Maldives, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 6.2 Foundational → Nascent | 4.7% Possible · rank 11 | Global funding seizure Extreme | ×1.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Breakdown of state function | 8.3 Foundational → Nascent | 4.3% Possible · rank 28 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.6 | Resource Infrastructure 0.8 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | 3.2% Possible · rank 12 | Regional war spillover Extreme | ×1.4 | Resource Infrastructure 0.8 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 2.8% Possible · rank 9 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severe | ×1.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 7.4 Foundational → Nascent | 2.5% Possible · rank 20 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Major | ×2.0 | Resource Infrastructure 0.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 1.4% Possible · rank 20 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 5.2 Nascent → Inception | 1.4% Possible · rank 17 | Global funding seizure Major + Regional war spillover Extreme | ×1.9 | Resource Infrastructure 0.8 |
| Food and water failure | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 31 | Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 46 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Artificial Intelligence 1.3 |
| Health system failure | 9.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 51 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 6 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 13 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.6 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 12 | Global funding seizure Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Artificial Intelligence 1.3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 91 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 8.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 22 | Breadbasket failure Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Artificial Intelligence 1.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 104 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 128 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Resource Infrastructure 0.8 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 91 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 129 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.5 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 133 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.7 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 129 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×48 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 140 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 145 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 129 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×9.0 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 132 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×8.1 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 7.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 7.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.9 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.5 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×8.8 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Capable digital government | 8.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 5.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Research translated into value | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |