Marshall Islands
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Acute fragility. Every scenario is severe; there is little capability left to lose. One of 14 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 63.6
- rank 13 of 197 · 3 years: 63.1
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −16.2
- rank 169 of 197 · 3 years: −15.9
- Shock absorbed
- 11%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.36
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Hybrid coercion. Highest exposure indicators: adult obesity rate; remittances relative to gdp; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; urban share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Marshall Islands’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.92 | −0.98 | −1.09 | −0.51 | ▼ 3 | 15 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.78 | −0.93 | −1.02 | −0.46 | ▼ 3 | 13 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.77 | −0.92 | −1.03 | −0.46 | ▼ 4 | 14 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.81 | −0.73 | −0.77 | −0.37 | ▼ 2 | 9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.61 | −0.69 | −0.82 | −0.36 | 0 | 13 | Industrial & Sectoral Base 0.2 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.55 | −0.62 | −0.70 | −0.31 | ▼ 2 | 8 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.64 | −0.60 | −0.73 | −0.33 | ▲ 2 | 9 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.56 | −0.59 | −0.66 | −0.29 | ▲ 1 | 8 | Economic Output & Productivity 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.70 | −0.57 | −0.62 | −0.30 | ▼ 2 | 9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.28 | −0.35 | −0.41 | −0.18 | ▲ 6 | 9 | Monetary & Currency Capability 1.6 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.11 | −1.31 | −0.41 | −0.62 | −0.62 | −1.55 | −1.45 | −1.20 | −1.59 |
| AI labour shock | −0.11 | −0.52 | · | −1.40 | −1.22 | −1.45 | −1.23 | −1.20 | −1.21 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.11 | −0.56 | −0.27 | −1.35 | −1.18 | −1.27 | −1.18 | −1.16 | −1.16 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.11 | −0.66 | −0.40 | · | −1.48 | −1.41 | −1.27 | −0.56 | −0.65 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.01 | −0.22 | −0.85 | −0.38 | −0.95 | −1.01 | −0.87 | −0.87 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.11 | −0.37 | −0.21 | −0.37 | −0.86 | −0.83 | −0.86 | −0.84 | −1.15 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.11 | −0.43 | −0.36 | −0.40 | −0.92 | −1.28 | −1.05 | −0.40 | −0.45 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.11 | −0.41 | · | −0.41 | −0.37 | −0.83 | −1.36 | −0.95 | −0.85 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.11 | −1.05 | −0.41 | · | −1.27 | −1.31 | · | −0.48 | −0.48 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.07 | −0.45 | −0.10 | −0.43 | −0.41 | −0.44 | −0.47 | −0.35 | −0.40 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Marshall Islands is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +3.9 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 10 | 116 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −4.1 | 4.3 | 8.5 | 17 | 156 | Energy Infrastructure 2.4 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −7.9 | 10.7 | 18.7 | 14 | 103 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −8.9 | 4.2 | 13.2 | 12 | 159 | Intelligence & Assessment 0.8 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −12.0 | 6.6 | 18.6 | 10 | 155 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −14.3 | 3.2 | 17.5 | 7 | 162 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −16.6 | 4.0 | 20.6 | 7 | 162 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −24.3 | 1.6 | 25.9 | 2 | 127 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −24.5 | 6.9 | 31.5 | 9 | 185 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −28.6 | 4.1 | 32.6 | 8 | 179 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Marshall Islands, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 5.9% Likely · rank 13 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×1.6 | Resource Infrastructure 0.5 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 4.3% Possible · rank 5 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×1.9 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 3.0% Possible · rank 19 | Regional war spillover Extreme | ×1.4 | Resource Infrastructure 0.5 |
| Rule of law failure | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.6% Possible · rank 15 | Regional war spillover Major + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.0 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Health system failure | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 67 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 64 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.0 | Quantum Technologies 0 |
| Food and water failure | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 84 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Resource Infrastructure 0.5 |
| Education pipeline failure | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 65 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 164 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.9 | Resource Infrastructure 0.5 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 165 | AI labour shock Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 3.0 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 169 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×27 | — |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.3 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×7.3 | — |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.0 | — |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.1 | — |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.0 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | Already at the foot of the scale | — | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.7 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.8 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.3 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×13 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 182 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×7.8 | — |
| Loss of financial stability | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 184 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.9 | — |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.1 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×22 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 181 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.4 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 181 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 181 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×15 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 181 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×24 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 181 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.7 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 181 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Capable digital government | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 181 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 181 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Research translated into value | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×9.3 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 181 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |