Mauritania
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 42.9
- rank 35 of 197 · 3 years: 42.9
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −10.9
- rank 137 of 197 · 3 years: −10.8
- Shock absorbed
- 16%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.33
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 9of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Regional war spillover, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; staple foods among the top five imports; public debt relative to gdp; refugees hosted per head of population; low life expectancy at birth; youth unemployment rate; share of population aged under 15.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Mauritania’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.85 | −1.07 | −1.31 | −0.58 | ▼ 8 | 30 | Energy Infrastructure 1.7 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.77 | −0.88 | −1.08 | −0.48 | 0 | 16 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.80 | −0.83 | −1.01 | −0.45 | ▼ 1 | 11 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.79 | −0.80 | −0.96 | −0.42 | ▼ 5 | 17 | Financial System Depth & Access 2 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.64 | −0.80 | −0.93 | −0.42 | ▼ 3 | 15 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.56 | −0.65 | −0.76 | −0.35 | ▼ 1 | 15 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.46 | −0.57 | −0.65 | −0.29 | ▲ 3 | 14 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.49 | −0.56 | −0.68 | −0.30 | ▲ 2 | 15 | Energy Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.48 | −0.52 | −0.56 | −0.26 | ▲ 2 | 7 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.30 | −0.28 | −0.32 | −0.14 | ▲ 2 | 5 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.39 | −1.36 | −0.47 | −1.28 | −1.22 | −1.31 | −1.40 | −1.05 | −1.20 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.36 | −1.22 | −1.01 | −0.47 | −0.47 | −1.17 | −1.09 | −0.94 | −1.20 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.33 | −0.55 | −0.96 | −0.50 | −1.16 | −1.61 | −1.32 | −0.50 | −0.57 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.33 | −0.54 | · | −0.54 | −0.49 | −1.10 | −1.80 | −1.26 | −1.12 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.47 | −0.45 | −0.37 | −1.09 | −0.95 | −1.02 | −0.95 | −0.93 | −0.93 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.46 | −0.36 | −0.32 | −0.36 | −0.83 | −0.80 | −0.83 | −0.81 | −1.12 |
| AI labour shock | −0.39 | −0.30 | · | −0.81 | −0.71 | −0.83 | −0.71 | −0.69 | −0.69 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.84 | −0.27 | −0.67 | −0.30 | −0.75 | −0.80 | −0.69 | −0.69 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.39 | −0.39 | −0.72 | · | −0.87 | −0.81 | −0.76 | −0.33 | −0.37 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.17 | −0.46 | −0.46 | · | −0.51 | −0.52 | · | −0.19 | −0.19 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Mauritania is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +9.5 | 11.4 | 1.8 | 13 | 84 | Energy Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +7.6 | 11.6 | 3.9 | 14 | 58 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +6.2 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 21 | 85 | Intelligence & Assessment 3.5 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +4.0 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 21 | 45 | Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −6.7 | 8.1 | 14.8 | 13 | 168 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −12.3 | 5.3 | 17.6 | 14 | 140 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −14.1 | 4.7 | 18.8 | 10 | 122 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −16.6 | 10.1 | 26.8 | 12 | 170 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −26.9 | 13.7 | 40.6 | 19 | 178 | Digital & Services Trade 3.3 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −37.3 | 1.6 | 38.9 | 5 | 181 | Robotics & Autonomous Systems 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Mauritania, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 5.5% Likely · rank 4 | Global funding seizure Extreme | ×1.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Breakdown of state function | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 3.9% Possible · rank 46 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Severe | ×1.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Food and water failure | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 3.0% Possible · rank 11 | Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 2.8% Possible · rank 10 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Health system failure | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 2.6% Possible · rank 2 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severe | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 2.0% Possible · rank 45 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 1.5% Possible · rank 36 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.8 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Possible · rank 44 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Major | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 60 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Breadbasket failure Major | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 36 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 48 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Regional war spillover Severe | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 82 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 76 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 22 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Severe | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 71 | Global funding seizure Extreme + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Education pipeline failure | 4.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 12 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Severe | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 88 | Legitimacy rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 |
| Collapse in energy security | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 84 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Majorplans fail | ×1.9 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 49 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 158 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.4 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 159 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.2 Inception | — No route · rank 158 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×12 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 160 | No route found · closest 2.8 of 3 | ×3.4 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 158 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.4 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 159 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.8 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.4 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.6 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.6 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×8.2 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.2 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Capable digital government | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Research translated into value | 2.8 Inception | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 158 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |