Mauritius
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 14.0
- rank 138 of 197 · 3 years: 13.8
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +5.7
- rank 54 of 197 · 3 years: +5.9
- Shock absorbed
- 35%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.17
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Semiconductors & Advanced Computing
- weakest point in 1 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Mauritius’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.79 | −0.84 | −1.14 | −0.50 | ▼ 2 | 17 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.69 | −0.69 | −1.07 | −0.47 | ▼ 1 | 19 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.5 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.68 | −0.65 | −0.86 | −0.38 | 0 | 18 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.9 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.68 | −0.63 | −1.00 | −0.44 | ▲ 1 | 19 | Artificial Intelligence 2.7 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.73 | −0.56 | −0.93 | −0.41 | ▲ 1 | 15 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 2 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.46 | −0.46 | −0.68 | −0.30 | ▲ 1 | 11 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.62 | −0.45 | −0.78 | −0.34 | 0 | 8 | Economic Output & Productivity 6.9 · Foundational |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.44 | −0.41 | −0.69 | −0.30 | ▲ 1 | 9 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.53 | −0.41 | −0.74 | −0.32 | 0 | 9 | Energy Infrastructure 6.4 · Foundational |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.36 | −0.30 | −0.40 | −0.17 | ▲ 1 | 8 | Maritime Power 2.4 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.48 | −1.14 | −0.94 | −0.44 | −0.44 | −1.10 | −1.02 | −0.88 | −1.13 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.74 | −0.37 | −0.30 | −0.89 | −0.78 | −0.84 | −0.78 | −0.77 | −0.77 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.83 | −0.46 | −0.83 | · | −1.02 | −0.96 | −0.89 | −0.38 | −0.44 |
| AI labour shock | −0.70 | −0.32 | · | −0.85 | −0.74 | −0.87 | −0.74 | −0.72 | −0.72 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.32 | −0.36 | −0.65 | −0.32 | −0.76 | −1.06 | −0.87 | −0.32 | −0.37 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.58 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.23 | −0.54 | −0.52 | −0.54 | −0.53 | −0.73 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.27 | −0.29 | · | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.60 | −0.98 | −0.69 | −0.61 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.21 | −0.51 | −0.17 | −0.47 | −0.45 | −0.49 | −0.52 | −0.39 | −0.44 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.62 | −0.20 | −0.49 | −0.22 | −0.55 | −0.59 | −0.51 | −0.51 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.22 | −0.48 | −0.48 | · | −0.54 | −0.56 | · | −0.20 | −0.20 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Mauritius is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +18.6 | 19.7 | 1.1 | 25 | 49 | Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +15.2 | 17.6 | 2.4 | 34 | 25 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +13.5 | 22.5 | 9.0 | 34 | 76 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +10.5 | 14.2 | 3.7 | 34 | 63 | Intelligence & Assessment 4.7 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +7.7 | 24.9 | 17.3 | 44 | 42 | Energy Infrastructure 7.3 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +4.6 | 19.6 | 15.0 | 35 | 56 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.4 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +2.7 | 7.6 | 4.9 | 47 | 63 | Energy Infrastructure 7.3 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −0.1 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 22 | 48 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −5.1 | 16.3 | 21.4 | 36 | 106 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | −8.5 | 7.4 | 15.9 | 15 | 62 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Mauritius, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 11.7 Transitional → Foundational | 1.4% Possible · rank 120 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6 |
| Breakdown of state function | 12.2 Established → Transitional | 1.4% Possible · rank 161 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Resource Infrastructure 2.5 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 1.0% Possible · rank 88 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Resource Infrastructure 2.5 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 11.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 120 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9.6 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 11.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 134 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6 |
| Rule of law failure | 11.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 117 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 110 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 6 |
| Health system failure | 11.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 134 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 8.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 88 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 10.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 122 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Resource Infrastructure 2.5 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 85 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 73 | Regional war spillover Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Food and water failure | 10.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 153 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 9.6 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 123 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 6.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 124 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Artificial Intelligence 4 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 8.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 132 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Resource Infrastructure 2.5 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 9.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 78 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 110 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 |
| Collapse in energy security | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 115 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Resource Infrastructure 2.5 |
| Education pipeline failure | 11.7 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 163 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 69 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.6 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 91 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.2 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 69 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.0 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 123 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.7 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 71 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.8 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capable digital government | 11.6 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 74 | Market access opening Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.5 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.4 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 11.6 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 74 | Market access opening Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×3.1 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.4 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 4.4 Nascent → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 62 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.5 | Energy Technologies 1.6 |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 8.9 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 74 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 |
| Trusted public institutions | 11.1 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 75 | Market access opening Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.5 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.4 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 10.3 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 66 | Market access opening Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Energy Infrastructure 7.3 |
| Higher-value international business | 10.9 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 70 | Market access opening Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Energy Infrastructure 7.3 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 67 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 8.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 72 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 67 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.4 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 10.8 Transitional | — No route · rank 68 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 68 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 11.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 67 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 9.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 67 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 67 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 2.3 Inception | — No route · rank 67 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 67 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 10.6 Transitional | — No route · rank 76 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.8 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 2.7 Inception | — No route · rank 67 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 10.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 70 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 7.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 67 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Wider international influence | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 69 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 11.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 68 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Research translated into value | 8.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 69 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 10.1 Transitional | — No route · rank 68 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |