Mexico
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 8.8
- rank 170 of 197 · 3 years: 8.6
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +7.7
- rank 48 of 197 · 3 years: +8.1
- Shock absorbed
- 42%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.10
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 7of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Labour & Employment
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of exports going to china and the united states; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; adult obesity rate; urban share of population; internet users as a share of population; industry as a share of gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Mexico’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.91 | −0.70 | −1.28 | −0.56 | ▼ 5 | 22 | Health System Capability 9.8 · Transitional |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.73 | −0.64 | −1.13 | −0.50 | 0 | 21 | Labour & Employment 8.5 · Foundational |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.66 | −0.59 | −0.98 | −0.43 | 0 | 21 | Artificial Intelligence 6.1 · Foundational |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.67 | −0.58 | −0.85 | −0.37 | 0 | 22 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.6 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.67 | −0.53 | −1.00 | −0.44 | ▼ 1 | 21 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.9 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.66 | −0.51 | −0.86 | −0.37 | ▼ 3 | 17 | Internal Security & Order 7.8 · Foundational |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.62 | −0.41 | −0.77 | −0.34 | 0 | 14 | Labour & Employment 8.8 · Foundational |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.37 | −0.32 | −0.58 | −0.26 | 0 | 15 | Internal Security & Order 8.4 · Foundational |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Low 0.34 | −0.28 | −0.49 | −0.21 | 0 | 14 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 3.8 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.42 | −0.28 | −0.47 | −0.20 | 0 | 10 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 6.6 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.05 | −0.34 | −0.83 | −0.38 | −0.94 | −1.00 | −0.86 | −0.86 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.69 | −0.34 | −0.28 | −0.83 | −0.73 | −0.78 | −0.73 | −0.71 | −0.71 |
| AI labour shock | −0.65 | −0.30 | · | −0.79 | −0.69 | −0.81 | −0.69 | −0.68 | −0.68 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.75 | −0.41 | −0.75 | · | −0.91 | −0.85 | −0.80 | −0.34 | −0.39 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.69 | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.27 | −0.62 | −0.60 | −0.62 | −0.61 | −0.84 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.29 | −0.32 | −0.59 | −0.29 | −0.69 | −0.96 | −0.79 | −0.29 | −0.34 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.24 | −0.27 | · | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.55 | −0.89 | −0.63 | −0.56 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.17 | −0.39 | −0.14 | −0.37 | −0.35 | −0.38 | −0.40 | −0.30 | −0.34 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.16 | −0.37 | −0.34 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.36 | −0.33 | −0.29 | −0.37 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.21 | −0.46 | −0.46 | · | −0.51 | −0.53 | · | −0.19 | −0.19 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Mexico is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +31.8 | 35.7 | 3.9 | 53 | 42 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 · Transitional |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +23.7 | 43.3 | 19.5 | 54 | 27 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 · Transitional |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +12.1 | 31.6 | 19.6 | 58 | 31 | Technical & Vocational Skills 10.5 · Transitional |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Gainer | +12.0 | 25.7 | 13.7 | 45 | 27 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 7 · Foundational |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +9.6 | 19.7 | 10.2 | 54 | 42 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 · Transitional |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +8.2 | 11.9 | 3.8 | 53 | 22 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 9.5 · Transitional |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | −1.2 | 18.6 | 19.8 | 36 | 51 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | −5.2 | 17.1 | 22.2 | 45 | 147 | Energy Technologies 6.4 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −8.1 | 7.3 | 15.4 | 51 | 155 | Internal Security & Order 9 · Transitional |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −9.1 | 24.8 | 33.9 | 43 | 90 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5 · Nascent |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Mexico, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 13.1 Established → Transitional | 1.4% Possible · rank 122 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Health System Capability 11.3 |
| Breakdown of state function | 11.4 Transitional → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 173 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 9.5 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 12.7 Established → Transitional | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 126 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 11.6 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 166 | Legitimacy rupture Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Artificial Intelligence 7.3 |
| Health system failure | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 107 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 11.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 112 | Legitimacy rupture Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Artificial Intelligence 7.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 13.5 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 102 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×3.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 11.6 |
| Rule of law failure | 10.1 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 154 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×3.0 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 9.5 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 12.4 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 77 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Health System Capability 11.3 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 13.0 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 148 | Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Health System Capability 11.3 |
| Food and water failure | 12.7 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 101 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Health System Capability 11.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 11.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 81 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Health System Capability 11.3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 11.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 101 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Quantum Technologies 4 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 12.7 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Remote · rank 99 | Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Health System Capability 11.3 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 21 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×3.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 11.6 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 84 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Quantum Technologies 4 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 107 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Quantum Technologies 4 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 32 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | Quantum Technologies 4 |
| Collapse in energy security | 11.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 107 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Health System Capability 11.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 10.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 83 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Education pipeline failure | 11.4 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 130 | Breadbasket failure Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 11.3 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 110 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Quantum Technologies 4 |
| Defence readiness failure | 9.2 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 117 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×4.1 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 9.5 |
| Broad fall in national security | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | — Remote · rank 87 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.0 | Quantum Technologies 4 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 50 | No route found · closest 2.1 of 3 | ×6.6 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 10.5 Transitional → Established | 6.6% Likely · rank 32 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Trusted public institutions | 10.2 Transitional → Transitional | 3.0% Possible · rank 33 | Public service leap Severe + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Capable digital government | 11.8 Transitional → Established | 2.6% Possible · rank 35 | Public service leap Severe + Chronic disease advance Severe | ×1.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 10.8 Transitional → Established | 2.0% Possible · rank 35 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 10.9 Transitional → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 32 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 13.5 Established → Advanced | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 35 | Market access opening Extreme + Great-power détente Major | ×2.0 | Technical & Vocational Skills 10.5 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 14.4 Established → Advanced | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 31 | Market access opening Major + Great-power détente Extreme | ×2.0 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5 |
| Higher-value international business | 12.6 Established → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 33 | Market access opening Extreme + Great-power détente Major | ×1.9 | Technical & Vocational Skills 10.5 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 6.2 Foundational → Foundational | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 39 | Automated discovery step Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 6.5 Foundational → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 40 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 12.7 Established → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 34 | Public service leap Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 10.0 Transitional → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 36 | Market access opening Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 9.3 Transitional → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 55 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.5 | Technical & Vocational Skills 10.5 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 12.7 Established → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 46 | Market access opening Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.5 | Technical & Vocational Skills 10.5 |
| Research translated into value | 10.8 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 47 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Secure food and water supply | 12.7 Established → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 48 | Market access opening Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 11.7 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 37 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 10.6 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 42 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Stronger information environment | 12.7 Established → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 38 | Public service leap Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Wider international influence | 10.8 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 40 | Great-power détente Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×2.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 12.6 Established → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 37 | Public service leap Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 11.5 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 48 | Market access opening Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.8 |
| Broad rise in national security | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 37 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Assured space services | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 39 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 8.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 36 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |