Moldova
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 22.0
- rank 94 of 197 · 3 years: 21.6
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −10.6
- rank 133 of 197 · 3 years: −10.3
- Shock absorbed
- 26%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.27
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Investment Attraction & Projection
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Hybrid coercion. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; refugees hosted per head of population; remittances relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; low life expectancy at birth.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Moldova’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.92 | −1.03 | −1.29 | −0.57 | ▼ 4 | 26 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.84 | −0.81 | −1.03 | −0.46 | 0 | 20 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.69 | −0.76 | −1.06 | −0.46 | ▲ 1 | 23 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.5 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.67 | −0.73 | −0.99 | −0.44 | ▲ 1 | 23 | Artificial Intelligence 1.5 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.51 | −0.57 | −0.74 | −0.33 | ▲ 1 | 16 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.68 | −0.55 | −0.72 | −0.32 | 0 | 17 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.66 | −0.55 | −0.83 | −0.37 | 0 | 18 | Investment Attraction & Projection 4.7 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.43 | −0.38 | −0.53 | −0.23 | ▲ 2 | 14 | Investment Attraction & Projection 4.4 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.33 | −0.38 | −0.52 | −0.23 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | Low 0.29 | −0.27 | −0.41 | −0.18 | ▲ 3 | 11 | Energy Infrastructure 5.4 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.60 | −1.42 | −1.03 | −0.55 | −0.55 | −1.37 | −1.28 | −1.09 | −1.41 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −1.03 | −0.59 | −0.95 | · | −1.30 | −1.22 | −1.14 | −0.49 | −0.56 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.80 | −0.41 | −0.29 | −0.98 | −0.86 | −0.92 | −0.86 | −0.84 | −0.84 |
| AI labour shock | −0.80 | −0.37 | · | −0.98 | −0.86 | −1.01 | −0.86 | −0.84 | −0.84 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.72 | −0.29 | −0.23 | −0.29 | −0.68 | −0.65 | −0.68 | −0.66 | −0.91 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.42 | −0.92 | −0.76 | · | −1.02 | −1.05 | · | −0.38 | −0.38 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.32 | −0.35 | −0.58 | −0.32 | −0.75 | −1.05 | −0.86 | −0.32 | −0.37 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.23 | −0.25 | · | −0.26 | −0.23 | −0.52 | −0.84 | −0.59 | −0.53 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.20 | −0.47 | −0.15 | −0.44 | −0.42 | −0.45 | −0.48 | −0.36 | −0.42 |
| Core disaster | −0.01 | −0.41 | −0.12 | −0.33 | −0.15 | −0.37 | −0.39 | −0.34 | −0.34 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Moldova is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +0.1 | 13.7 | 13.7 | 21 | 130 | Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −1.1 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 37 | 115 | Energy Infrastructure 6 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −1.5 | 15.6 | 17.1 | 33 | 130 | Intelligence & Assessment 5.7 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | −4.7 | 15.5 | 20.2 | 27 | 156 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −4.9 | 8.9 | 13.8 | 33 | 88 | Investment Attraction & Projection 5.3 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −9.1 | 12.3 | 21.4 | 29 | 123 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.2 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −16.1 | 18.6 | 34.7 | 28 | 159 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −17.3 | 7.9 | 25.3 | 26 | 181 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3 · Nascent |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −18.1 | 6.4 | 24.6 | 13 | 88 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −20.1 | 4.5 | 24.6 | 18 | 162 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Moldova, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 9.7 Transitional → Foundational | 3.8% Possible · rank 50 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×1.8 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 4.7 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 3.0% Possible · rank 18 | Regional war spillover Extreme | ×1.6 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | 1.7% Possible · rank 66 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 7.4 Foundational → Nascent | 1.5% Possible · rank 14 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.3% Possible · rank 36 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×1.8 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Rule of law failure | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | 1.3% Possible · rank 26 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 1.2% Possible · rank 84 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Loss of financial stability | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.2% Possible · rank 139 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Collapse in energy security | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 32 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.6 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 6.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 33 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 35 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 1 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 79 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 42 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.3 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 4.7 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 55 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severe | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 86 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Health system failure | 9.3 Transitional → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 171 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 101 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Food and water failure | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 154 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 9.1 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 157 | AI labour shock Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 10.0 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 137 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 94 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.9 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 102 | No route found · closest 2.7 of 3 | ×2.9 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 94 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 128 | No route found · closest 2.7 of 3 | ×3.7 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 94 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.4 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 93 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 93 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 93 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 9.1 Transitional | — No route · rank 93 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 93 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 9.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 95 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 93 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 93 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 93 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 93 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.4 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 93 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.4 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 93 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 96 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 7.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 94 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 93 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.4 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 8.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 93 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 95 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 7.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 93 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Wider international influence | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 93 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Capable digital government | 9.5 Transitional | — No route · rank 101 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 9.2 Transitional | — No route · rank 99 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 93 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Research translated into value | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 93 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.3 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 94 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 7.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 93 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.5 | — |