Montenegro
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 25.5
- rank 86 of 197 · 3 years: 25.2
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −4.3
- rank 86 of 197 · 3 years: −4.1
- Shock absorbed
- 27%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.30
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Semiconductors & Advanced Computing
- weakest point in 1 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Hybrid coercion. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population; refugees hosted per head of population; remittances relative to gdp; youth unemployment rate; share of population aged 65 and over; trade in goods and services relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Montenegro’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.95 | −1.03 | −1.36 | −0.61 | ▼ 4 | 22 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.82 | −0.90 | −1.24 | −0.55 | ▼ 3 | 15 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.82 | −0.86 | −1.19 | −0.53 | ▼ 2 | 12 | Artificial Intelligence 0.6 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.87 | −0.85 | −1.07 | −0.48 | ▼ 2 | 16 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.3 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.78 | −0.70 | −0.97 | −0.43 | ▼ 3 | 12 | Investment Attraction & Projection 4 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.55 | −0.62 | −0.79 | −0.35 | ▼ 1 | 7 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.73 | −0.60 | −0.81 | −0.36 | ▼ 3 | 12 | Maritime Power 1.1 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.58 | −0.49 | −0.75 | −0.33 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.5 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.49 | −0.45 | −0.69 | −0.30 | 0 | 9 | Industrial & Sectoral Base 5.5 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.34 | −0.38 | −0.53 | −0.23 | ▲ 1 | 9 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4.8 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.56 | −1.38 | −1.22 | −0.53 | −0.53 | −1.33 | −1.24 | −1.06 | −1.37 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.84 | −0.49 | −0.40 | −1.18 | −1.03 | −1.11 | −1.03 | −1.01 | −1.01 |
| AI labour shock | −0.84 | −0.44 | · | −1.18 | −1.03 | −1.22 | −1.03 | −1.01 | −1.01 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.96 | −0.62 | −1.13 | · | −1.38 | −1.29 | −1.21 | −0.52 | −0.59 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.41 | −0.46 | · | −0.47 | −0.42 | −0.95 | −1.55 | −1.08 | −0.96 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.71 | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.32 | −0.74 | −0.72 | −0.74 | −0.73 | −1.00 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.44 | −0.98 | −0.98 | · | −1.09 | −1.12 | · | −0.41 | −0.41 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.29 | −0.32 | −0.57 | −0.29 | −0.67 | −0.93 | −0.76 | −0.29 | −0.33 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.67 | −0.22 | −0.53 | −0.24 | −0.60 | −0.64 | −0.55 | −0.55 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.20 | −0.48 | −0.16 | −0.45 | −0.43 | −0.46 | −0.49 | −0.37 | −0.42 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Montenegro is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +16.9 | 19.7 | 2.8 | 25 | 66 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +16.5 | 18.2 | 1.7 | 34 | 47 | Intelligence & Assessment 5.2 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +16.5 | 17.0 | 0.5 | 21 | 55 | Energy Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +1.7 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 27 | 66 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −1.8 | 17.6 | 19.4 | 34 | 75 | Investment Attraction & Projection 5.7 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −6.9 | 6.4 | 13.2 | 40 | 180 | Energy Infrastructure 6.6 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −11.2 | 8.2 | 19.4 | 17 | 103 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −11.8 | 4.3 | 16.1 | 24 | 153 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −12.2 | 9.9 | 22.2 | 12 | 69 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −19.4 | 19.3 | 38.7 | 26 | 170 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Montenegro, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 10.1 Transitional → Foundational | 6.0% Likely · rank 12 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severe | ×1.9 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Loss of financial stability | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 3.7% Possible · rank 20 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severe | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.2 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 9.8 Transitional → Foundational | 2.8% Possible · rank 15 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 2.2% Possible · rank 18 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×1.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.2 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 1.8% Possible · rank 6 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Collapse in energy security | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | 1.8% Possible · rank 10 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×1.7 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 1.4% Possible · rank 43 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×1.6 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | 1.4% Possible · rank 30 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×1.8 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Rule of law failure | 9.7 Transitional → Foundational | 1.3% Possible · rank 23 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 1.3% Possible · rank 9 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 6.0 Foundational → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 13 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.5 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 23 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.1% Possible · rank 9 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.2 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 16 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 7 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 |
| Health system failure | 10.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 66 | Global funding seizure Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 37 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.2 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 4.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 9.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 6 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 |
| Food and water failure | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 106 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 4.3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 10.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 34 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 86 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 4.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 93 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.1 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 101 | No route found · closest 3.0 of 3 | ×2.5 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 93 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.6 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 93 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.4 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 7.4 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 84 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×3.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 92 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 92 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 92 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 9.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 92 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 92 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 9.8 Transitional | — No route · rank 94 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 92 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 92 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 92 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.6 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 92 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 92 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 92 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 95 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 7.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 93 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 92 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 8.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 92 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 92 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Wider international influence | 6.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 92 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Capable digital government | 9.2 Transitional | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 9.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 98 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 7.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 92 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.7 | — |
| Research translated into value | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 92 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 7.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 93 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 92 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |