Morocco
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 12.4
- rank 151 of 197 · 3 years: 12.2
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +12.8
- rank 34 of 197 · 3 years: +13.1
- Shock absorbed
- 37%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.15
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population; little renewable water per head; remittances relative to gdp; adult obesity rate; youth unemployment rate; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Morocco’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.72 | −0.69 | −1.11 | −0.49 | 0 | 15 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.1 · Nascent |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.76 | −0.68 | −1.11 | −0.49 | ▼ 1 | 13 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 5.6 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.81 | −0.67 | −1.12 | −0.49 | 0 | 15 | Health System Capability 8.6 · Foundational |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.67 | −0.66 | −1.00 | −0.44 | 0 | 14 | Artificial Intelligence 3.7 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.75 | −0.65 | −0.97 | −0.42 | 0 | 7 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 6.5 · Foundational |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.69 | −0.65 | −0.88 | −0.39 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.1 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.69 | −0.52 | −0.86 | −0.37 | 0 | 9 | Labour & Employment 7.3 · Foundational |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.52 | −0.47 | −0.82 | −0.36 | ▼ 1 | 9 | Population Health 7.8 · Foundational |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.42 | −0.38 | −0.63 | −0.28 | ▲ 3 | 7 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.7 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.41 | −0.29 | −0.46 | −0.20 | ▲ 4 | 5 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.2 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Severe pandemic | −0.74 | −0.37 | −0.30 | −0.89 | −0.78 | −0.84 | −0.78 | −0.77 | −0.77 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.38 | −0.91 | −0.84 | −0.35 | −0.35 | −0.87 | −0.81 | −0.70 | −0.90 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.00 | −0.32 | −0.80 | −0.36 | −0.90 | −0.96 | −0.82 | −0.82 |
| AI labour shock | −0.73 | −0.33 | · | −0.89 | −0.78 | −0.92 | −0.78 | −0.76 | −0.76 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.38 | −0.41 | −0.75 | −0.38 | −0.88 | −1.23 | −1.01 | −0.38 | −0.43 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.85 | −0.46 | −0.85 | · | −1.03 | −0.96 | −0.90 | −0.39 | −0.44 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.31 | −0.34 | · | −0.34 | −0.31 | −0.70 | −1.14 | −0.80 | −0.71 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.25 | −0.58 | −0.20 | −0.55 | −0.52 | −0.56 | −0.60 | −0.45 | −0.51 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.50 | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.19 | −0.45 | −0.44 | −0.45 | −0.44 | −0.61 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.21 | −0.46 | −0.46 | · | −0.52 | −0.53 | · | −0.19 | −0.19 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Morocco is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +31.8 | 32.9 | 1.1 | 40 | 29 | Energy Technologies 6 · Foundational |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Gainer | +24.3 | 26.5 | 2.2 | 42 | 11 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.4 · Foundational |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +19.2 | 28.1 | 8.9 | 41 | 62 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.4 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +16.5 | 20.2 | 3.6 | 47 | 46 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 8.3 · Foundational |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Gainer | +12.8 | 17.4 | 4.7 | 44 | 5 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 7.5 · Foundational |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +12.7 | 33.2 | 20.5 | 50 | 30 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 9 · Transitional |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +6.1 | 26.1 | 20.0 | 34 | 51 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.6 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +4.8 | 25.5 | 20.7 | 41 | 54 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.4 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | +3.0 | 10.7 | 7.6 | 32 | 41 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.5 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | −7.8 | 12.0 | 19.8 | 23 | 60 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.5 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Morocco, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loss of financial stability | 11.1 Transitional → Foundational | 2.9% Possible · rank 36 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Majorplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 8.6 |
| Breakdown of state function | 10.1 Transitional → Foundational | 1.7% Possible · rank 149 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 8.3 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 10.6 Transitional → Foundational | 1.3% Possible · rank 74 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 8.6 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 9.2 Transitional → Nascent | 1.2% Possible · rank 108 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 7.5 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 11.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 95 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 8.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 8.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 48 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 8.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 9.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 85 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 7.5 |
| Health system failure | 9.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 101 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.4 |
| Rule of law failure | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 126 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 7.5 |
| Food and water failure | 12.1 Established → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 66 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Health System Capability 10 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 11.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 90 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×3.4 | Maritime Power 8.3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 10.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 57 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Health System Capability 10 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 48 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Health System Capability 10 |
| Defence readiness failure | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 39 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 7.5 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 11.1 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 71 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Health System Capability 10 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 10.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 98 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Artificial Intelligence 5 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 7.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 75 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 1.8 |
| Broad fall in national security | 8.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 56 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Quantum Technologies 1.8 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 9.1 Transitional → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 60 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.4 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 10.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 120 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Quantum Technologies 1.8 |
| Education pipeline failure | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 88 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.4 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 81 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Quantum Technologies 1.8 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 33 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×4.3 | Maritime Power 8.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | — Remote · rank 61 | AI labour shock Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Quantum Technologies 1.8 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 60 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.9 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable low-cost energy | 8.1 Foundational → Transitional | 3.1% Possible · rank 33 | Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.5 | Energy Technologies 6 |
| Capable digital government | 10.1 Transitional → Transitional | 1.5% Possible · rank 44 | Market access opening Major + Public service leap Extreme | ×1.9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.6 |
| Trusted public institutions | 8.3 Foundational → Transitional | 1.2% Possible · rank 43 | Market access opening Major + Public service leap Extreme | ×1.9 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.6 |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 8.4 Foundational → Transitional | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 56 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.4 |
| Secure food and water supply | 12.1 Established → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 29 | Market access opening Major + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.4 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 11.4 Transitional → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 36 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Major | ×1.9 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 9 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 9.2 Transitional → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 54 | Market access opening Severe + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.4 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.6 |
| Higher-value international business | 10.4 Transitional → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 34 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Major | ×1.8 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 9 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 11.1 Transitional → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 39 | Market access opening Severe + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.5 | Energy Technologies 6 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 9.5 Transitional → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 34 | Market access opening Severe + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.4 | Energy Technologies 6 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 11.8 Transitional → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 39 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Severe | ×2.3 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 9 |
| Research translated into value | 8.8 Foundational → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 45 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.6 | Energy Technologies 6 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 4.2 Nascent → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 55 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.8 | Energy Technologies 6 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 9.1 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 54 | Market access opening Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.7 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 9 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 8.4 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 51 | Market access opening Extreme + Water-efficient food leap Extreme | ×2.4 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 9 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 10.5 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 39 | Debt service reset Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.4 | Energy Technologies 6 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 10.6 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 52 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.6 | Energy Technologies 6 |
| Stronger information environment | 11.2 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 48 | Public service leap Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.4 |
| Broad rise in national security | 8.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 54 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 10.8 Transitional | — No route · rank 56 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Assured space services | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 54 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 61 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 8.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 57 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 10.1 Transitional | — No route · rank 54 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Wider international influence | 10.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 61 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |