Myanmar
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil, gas and commodities: two of the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 36.5
- rank 47 of 197 · 3 years: 36.0
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −29.2
- rank 192 of 197 · 3 years: −29.0
- Shock absorbed
- 15%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.31
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture, Hybrid coercion. Highest exposure indicators: earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; industry as a share of gdp; oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; consumer price inflation; low real gdp per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Myanmar’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.86 | −1.01 | −1.21 | −0.53 | ▼ 14 | 29 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.6 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.64 | −0.81 | −0.92 | −0.41 | ▼ 4 | 17 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.65 | −0.80 | −0.94 | −0.42 | ▼ 7 | 20 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.71 | −0.78 | −0.87 | −0.39 | ▼ 8 | 20 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.62 | −0.71 | −0.79 | −0.35 | 0 | 20 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.55 | −0.71 | −0.83 | −0.37 | 0 | 19 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.62 | −0.56 | −0.68 | −0.30 | ▼ 7 | 16 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Medium 0.41 | −0.48 | −0.59 | −0.26 | ▲ 8 | 12 | Economic Leverage & Dependence 2.7 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.42 | −0.45 | −0.52 | −0.23 | ▲ 8 | 13 | Financial Stability & Crisis Management 1.9 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.30 | −0.38 | −0.47 | −0.20 | ▲ 8 | 10 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core disaster | −0.05 | −1.51 | −0.49 | −1.20 | −0.54 | −1.35 | −1.44 | −1.23 | −1.23 |
| AI labour shock | −0.72 | −0.42 | · | −1.13 | −0.99 | −1.12 | −0.99 | −0.97 | −0.97 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.86 | −0.42 | −0.38 | −0.42 | −0.97 | −0.94 | −0.97 | −0.95 | −1.31 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.84 | −0.57 | −1.05 | · | −1.27 | −1.19 | −1.11 | −0.48 | −0.55 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.37 | −0.46 | −0.83 | −0.42 | −0.97 | −1.31 | −1.11 | −0.42 | −0.48 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.66 | −0.38 | −0.31 | −0.93 | −0.81 | −0.87 | −0.81 | −0.79 | −0.79 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.39 | −0.92 | −0.92 | · | −1.02 | −1.05 | · | −0.38 | −0.38 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.26 | −0.64 | −0.59 | −0.25 | −0.25 | −0.62 | −0.58 | −0.49 | −0.63 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.26 | −0.30 | · | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.61 | −0.99 | −0.70 | −0.62 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.20 | −0.48 | −0.16 | −0.45 | −0.43 | −0.46 | −0.49 | −0.37 | −0.42 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Myanmar is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +4.3 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 16 | 110 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −3.2 | 5.0 | 8.3 | 16 | 144 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 2.3 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −8.9 | 7.0 | 15.9 | 17 | 142 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −12.9 | 8.8 | 21.7 | 13 | 159 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −28.4 | 7.3 | 35.7 | 16 | 191 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Loser | −30.2 | 4.9 | 35.1 | 18 | 178 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 2.3 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −32.7 | 10.5 | 43.2 | 19 | 189 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 3 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −35.3 | 5.2 | 40.4 | 10 | 192 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −38.9 | 4.1 | 43.0 | 6 | 185 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Loser | −51.6 | 6.5 | 58.1 | 15 | 181 | Energy Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Myanmar, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | 1.7% Possible · rank 151 | Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Extreme | ×1.9 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3.8 |
| Loss of financial stability | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | 1.5% Possible · rank 117 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extreme | ×1.9 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3.8 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 49 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×1.9 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Food and water failure | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 42 | Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Extreme | ×1.9 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3.8 |
| Health system failure | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 86 | Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×1.9 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3.8 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 149 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3.8 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 114 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Core disaster Extreme | ×1.9 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3.8 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 5.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 59 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Core disaster Extreme | ×2.0 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3.8 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 80 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3.8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 3.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 180 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3.8 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 128 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.6 |
| Defence readiness failure | 7.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 61 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1.3 |
| Collapse in energy security | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 105 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3.8 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 122 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3.8 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 133 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 3.4 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 164 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 70 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.7 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 88 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 145 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 134 | Core disaster Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.5 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3.8 |
| Education pipeline failure | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 173 | Core disaster Extreme + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.8 | Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3.8 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 147 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 147 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.3 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 147 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.7 | — |
| Rule of law failure | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 183 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.2 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.2 Inception | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.9 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×19 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.6 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×10 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 3.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.5 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.1 | — |
| Assured space services | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×12 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 6.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 0.2 of 1.5 | ×19 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 4.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.2 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Capable digital government | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.1 | — |
| Research translated into value | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×9.5 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 147 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.1 | — |