Nepal
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Stretched developers. Exposed to food and funding shocks; debt relief and better yields are their upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 25.8
- rank 85 of 197 · 3 years: 25.6
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −3.1
- rank 81 of 197 · 3 years: −2.6
- Shock absorbed
- 21%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.26
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 9of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Breadbasket failure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; remittances relative to gdp; low real gdp per head; consumer price inflation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Nepal’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.84 | −0.96 | −1.18 | −0.52 | ▼ 5 | 22 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.69 | −0.81 | −1.00 | −0.44 | ▼ 2 | 13 | Artificial Intelligence 1 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.86 | −0.79 | −1.09 | −0.48 | ▼ 3 | 16 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.1 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.57 | −0.61 | −0.70 | −0.31 | ▼ 1 | 12 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.5 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.49 | −0.59 | −0.75 | −0.33 | ▲ 6 | 12 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.54 | −0.55 | −0.75 | −0.33 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 3.3 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.40 | −0.49 | −0.63 | −0.27 | ▼ 1 | 12 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 3.6 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.48 | −0.45 | −0.59 | −0.26 | ▲ 3 | 10 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2.9 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Low 0.32 | −0.37 | −0.46 | −0.21 | ▲ 4 | 6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.41 | −0.36 | −0.45 | −0.20 | ▲ 2 | 11 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.52 | −1.34 | −0.92 | −0.52 | −0.52 | −1.29 | −1.20 | −1.03 | −1.33 |
| AI labour shock | −0.79 | −0.42 | · | −1.11 | −0.97 | −1.14 | −0.97 | −0.95 | −0.95 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.43 | −0.52 | −0.84 | −0.47 | −1.09 | −1.52 | −1.25 | −0.47 | −0.54 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.72 | −0.44 | −0.74 | · | −0.99 | −0.92 | −0.86 | −0.37 | −0.42 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.58 | −0.32 | −0.23 | −0.77 | −0.67 | −0.72 | −0.67 | −0.66 | −0.66 |
| Core disaster | −0.03 | −0.84 | −0.24 | −0.66 | −0.30 | −0.75 | −0.80 | −0.68 | −0.68 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.26 | −0.61 | −0.19 | −0.57 | −0.55 | −0.58 | −0.62 | −0.47 | −0.53 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.27 | −0.30 | · | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.61 | −1.00 | −0.70 | −0.62 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.44 | −0.19 | −0.15 | −0.19 | −0.45 | −0.43 | −0.45 | −0.44 | −0.61 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.28 | −0.60 | −0.50 | · | −0.67 | −0.69 | · | −0.25 | −0.25 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Nepal is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +13.6 | 14.2 | 0.6 | 17 | 66 | Energy Technologies 1.8 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +10.3 | 12.2 | 1.9 | 25 | 65 | Intelligence & Assessment 3.8 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +6.7 | 10.4 | 3.7 | 19 | 61 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +2.9 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 32 | 61 | Energy Infrastructure 5.6 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +2.3 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 19 | 130 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −0.3 | 14.1 | 14.4 | 24 | 70 | Investment Attraction & Projection 4 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | −5.5 | 16.2 | 21.7 | 21 | 103 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −13.8 | 9.1 | 22.9 | 20 | 149 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −22.3 | 3.6 | 25.9 | 12 | 168 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −22.4 | 4.3 | 26.7 | 8 | 112 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Nepal, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 3.0% Possible · rank 79 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 7.5 Foundational → Nascent | 1.7% Possible · rank 67 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.0 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Loss of financial stability | 6.6 Foundational → Nascent | 1.7% Possible · rank 105 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 6.1 Foundational → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 86 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 66 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.7 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Rule of law failure | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 51 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 6.0 Foundational → Inception | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 63 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Major | ×1.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 116 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Collapse in energy security | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 80 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severe | ×1.8 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Food and water failure | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 123 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.2 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 127 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 115 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Artificial Intelligence 2.7 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 111 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Health system failure | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 190 | Breadbasket failure Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 141 | Regional war spillover Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Artificial Intelligence 2.7 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 149 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 174 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Artificial Intelligence 2.7 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 107 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Education pipeline failure | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 168 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Artificial Intelligence 2.7 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 121 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.8 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 127 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.2 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 121 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.8 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 140 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×3.2 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 121 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.4 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 126 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.4 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.3 Inception | — No route · rank 120 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 120 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 120 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×7.5 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 120 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.6 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 120 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 7.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 120 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 120 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 120 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 120 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.5 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.4 Inception | — No route · rank 120 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.2 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 120 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 3.0 Inception | — No route · rank 120 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 120 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 120 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 3.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 120 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×8.2 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 120 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 120 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 120 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |
| Wider international influence | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 120 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Capable digital government | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 121 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 121 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 120 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Research translated into value | 4.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 120 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.0 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 120 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 120 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |