Netherlands
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 6.3
- rank 184 of 197 · 3 years: 6.2
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +37.9
- rank 8 of 197 · 3 years: +38.0
- Shock absorbed
- 60%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.01
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 8of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Information Environment & Strategic Communication
- weakest point in 4 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Hybrid coercion, Regional war spillover, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: internet users as a share of population; urban share of population; few months of imports covered by reserves; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; share of population aged 65 and over; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; refugees hosted per head of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Netherlands’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.90 | −0.57 | −1.32 | −0.55 | 0 | 8 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 9.5 · Transitional |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.94 | −0.57 | −1.46 | −0.56 | 0 | 9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.6 · Established |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.87 | −0.51 | −1.30 | −0.50 | 0 | 8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.6 · Established |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.92 | −0.47 | −1.17 | −0.47 | 0 | 7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.6 · Established |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.84 | −0.40 | −1.05 | −0.40 | 0 | 4 | Economic Output & Productivity 14.5 · Established |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.64 | −0.39 | −0.96 | −0.39 | 0 | 6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.2 · Established |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.78 | −0.39 | −0.88 | −0.37 | 0 | 6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.6 · Established |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.54 | −0.28 | −0.76 | −0.28 | ▲ 1 | 2 | Energy Infrastructure 13.3 · Established |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.41 | −0.24 | −0.64 | −0.24 | 0 | 3 | Energy Infrastructure 13.4 · Established |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.42 | −0.21 | −0.54 | −0.21 | 0 | 2 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 13.2 · Established |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.32 | −0.75 | −0.75 | −0.29 | −0.29 | −0.73 | −0.68 | −0.58 | −0.75 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.60 | −0.30 | −0.27 | −0.73 | −0.64 | −0.68 | −0.64 | −0.63 | −0.63 |
| AI labour shock | −0.56 | −0.26 | · | −0.68 | −0.60 | −0.70 | −0.60 | −0.59 | −0.59 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.60 | −0.33 | −0.66 | · | −0.73 | −0.69 | −0.64 | −0.27 | −0.31 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.24 | −0.26 | · | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.54 | −0.88 | −0.62 | −0.55 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.50 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.45 | −0.43 | −0.45 | −0.44 | −0.61 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.28 | −0.62 | −0.67 | · | −0.69 | −0.71 | · | −0.26 | −0.26 |
| Core disaster | −0.01 | −0.42 | −0.15 | −0.33 | −0.15 | −0.37 | −0.40 | −0.34 | −0.34 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.12 | −0.29 | −0.11 | −0.27 | −0.26 | −0.28 | −0.30 | −0.22 | −0.26 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.27 | −0.12 | −0.29 | −0.40 | −0.33 | −0.12 | −0.14 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Netherlands is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +67.6 | 68.4 | 0.9 | 76 | 2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 · Established |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Gainer | +59.1 | 65.9 | 6.8 | 74 | 8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 · Established |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +48.8 | 53.2 | 4.4 | 70 | 10 | Energy Technologies 12.4 · Established |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +45.4 | 57.7 | 12.3 | 84 | 8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 16.6 · Advanced |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Gainer | +34.8 | 41.1 | 6.3 | 76 | 6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 · Established |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +33.9 | 36.9 | 3.0 | 75 | 12 | Energy Infrastructure 13.9 · Established |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +32.4 | 39.6 | 7.3 | 76 | 3 | Energy Infrastructure 13.9 · Established |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Gainer | +14.5 | 16.9 | 2.4 | 79 | 15 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 15 · Advanced |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +8.8 | 13.6 | 4.8 | 84 | 47 | Technology Adoption & Diffusion 16.5 · Advanced |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −1.0 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 75 | 112 | Energy Infrastructure 13.9 · Established |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Netherlands, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 16.9 Advanced → Established | 2.0% Possible · rank 129 | Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 |
| Loss of financial stability | 16.7 Advanced → Established | 1.8% Possible · rank 97 | Global funding seizure Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.1 | Resource Infrastructure 13 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 16.7 Advanced → Established | 1.0% Possible · rank 117 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×4.1 | Resource Infrastructure 13 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 16.5 Advanced → Established | 1.0% Possible · rank 107 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Majorplans fail | ×3.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 15.8 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 14.4 Established → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 54 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 14.7 |
| Collapse in energy security | 13.1 Established → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 53 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×3.1 | Resource Infrastructure 13 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 15.4 Advanced → Established | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 82 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.1 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 14.7 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 17.0 Advanced → Established | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 115 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Resource Infrastructure 13 |
| Broad fall in national security | 12.1 Established → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 22 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×4.0 | Resource Infrastructure 13 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 16.6 Advanced → Established | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 77 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×4.0 | Resource Infrastructure 13 |
| Rule of law failure | 16.4 Advanced → Established | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 129 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.1 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 14.7 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 14.7 Established → Transitional | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 69 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.1 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 14.7 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 15.8 Advanced → Established | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 65 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.1 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 14.7 |
| Health system failure | 16.7 Advanced → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 121 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 |
| Defence readiness failure | 14.3 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 34 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×4.1 | Resource Infrastructure 13 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 16.3 Advanced → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 45 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.1 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 14.7 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 15.8 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 67 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×4.0 | Resource Infrastructure 13 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 16.4 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 64 | Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×4.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 15.8 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 16.4 Advanced → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 84 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×4.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 15.8 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 14.0 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Remote · rank 26 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×5.0 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 14.7 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 13.4 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Remote · rank 19 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×5.2 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 14.7 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 16.7 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 69 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 |
| Food and water failure | 17.1 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 164 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×5.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 |
| Education pipeline failure | 16.7 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 69 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.4 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 6.8 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 12 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×3.9 | Resource Infrastructure 13 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable low-cost energy | 13.1 Established → Established | 22% Likely · rank 2 | Clean power threshold Severe | ×0.9 | Energy Technologies 12.4 |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 16.6 Advanced → Frontier | 21% Likely · rank 7 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×0.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Frontier AI and compute | 14.2 Established → Advanced | 20% Likely · rank 5 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×0.8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 16.7 Advanced → Frontier | 20% Likely · rank 3 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Trusted public institutions | 16.5 Advanced → Advanced | 20% Likely · rank 4 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.2 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 |
| Capable digital government | 16.9 Advanced → Frontier | 19% Likely · rank 6 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Research translated into value | 16.8 Advanced → Frontier | 18% Likely · rank 4 | Automated discovery step Severe | ×0.9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 14.0 Established → Advanced | 17% Likely · rank 6 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.0 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 16.6 Advanced → Frontier | 12% Likely · rank 6 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Sophisticated export strength | 16.6 Advanced → Frontier | 12% Likely · rank 7 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.2 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 · reaches Frontier |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 15.2 Advanced → Advanced | 12% Likely · rank 6 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.0 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 |
| Higher-value international business | 16.7 Advanced → Frontier | 11% Likely · rank 4 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 15.8 Advanced → Advanced | 11% Likely · rank 4 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 16.4 Advanced → Frontier | 10% Likely · rank 6 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.3 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in human capital | 16.7 Advanced → Frontier | 10% Likely · rank 5 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 16.5 Advanced → Frontier | 7.6% Likely · rank 4 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Secure food and water supply | 17.1 Advanced → Frontier | 7.6% Likely · rank 6 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 · reaches Frontier |
| Assured space services | 10.8 Transitional → Established | 4.5% Possible · rank 6 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.5 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 16.5 Advanced → Frontier | 4.0% Possible · rank 4 | Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.5 | Energy Technologies 12.4 · reaches Frontier |
| Stronger information environment | 13.6 Established → Advanced | 3.9% Possible · rank 5 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.1 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 16.5 Advanced → Frontier | 3.8% Possible · rank 11 | Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×1.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 16.6 · reaches Frontier |
| Wider international influence | 15.8 Advanced → Advanced | 3.7% Possible · rank 6 | Great-power détente Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.5 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 |
| Broad rise in national security | 12.1 Established → Established | 3.1% Possible · rank 7 | Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.5 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 |
| More deployable joint force | 14.2 Established → Advanced | 3.1% Possible · rank 6 | Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.5 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 14.7 Established → Advanced | 2.3% Possible · rank 6 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.7 |