Indo-Pacific · NZL

New Zealand

Baseline index 12.83Rank 22 of 197EstablishedIndo-PacificAtlas profileAll results

Read with care

Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years: 7.7; rank 177 of 197 · 3 years: 7.6
Worst case: −4.9%; Cryptographic trust break · tail −4.6%
Opportunity · 10 years: +22.1; rank 23 of 197 · 3 years: +22.5
Best case: +44; Outbreak defence succeeds · gainer in 7 of 10
Shock absorbed: 52%; by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend: +0.06; expected index points from best practice
Breadth: 3of 10; scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest link: Energy Infrastructure; weakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Hybrid coercion, AI labour shock, Regional war spillover. Highest exposure indicators: internet users as a share of population; adult obesity rate; urban share of population; share of population aged 65 and over.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in New Zealand’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

ScenarioChange in index, points

Cryptographic trust break (S09)

AI labour shock (S08)

Severe pandemic (S10)

Regional war spillover (S03)

Trade bloc rupture (S01)

Hybrid coercion (S04)

Core disaster (S07)

Global funding seizure (S02)

Legitimacy rupture (S05)

Breadbasket failure (S06)

−0.63

−0.60

−0.55

−0.50

−0.44

−0.42

−0.27

−0.25

−0.20

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Cryptographic trust break S09	High 0.90	−0.63	−1.15	−0.49	▼ 2	19	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 7.1 · Foundational
AI labour shock S08	High 0.86	−0.60	−1.28	−0.53	▼ 1	19	Artificial Intelligence 7.8 · Foundational
Severe pandemic S10	High 0.76	−0.55	−1.17	−0.49	0	23	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.1 · Transitional
Regional war spillover S03	High 0.66	−0.50	−0.96	−0.41	0	25	Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 2 · Inception
Trade bloc rupture S01	Medium 0.58	−0.44	−0.86	−0.37	0	17	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.8 · Inception
Hybrid coercion S04	High 0.77	−0.44	−0.86	−0.37	0	16	Maritime Power 7.6 · Foundational
Core disaster S07	High 0.72	−0.42	−1.01	−0.41	▼ 1	13	Energy Infrastructure 10 · Transitional
Global funding seizure S02	Medium 0.50	−0.27	−0.63	−0.26	0	14	Economic Output & Productivity 11.8 · Transitional
Legitimacy rupture S05	Medium 0.48	−0.25	−0.62	−0.24	0	14	Force Generation & Mobilisation 9.1 · Transitional
Breadbasket failure S06	Low 0.28	−0.20	−0.44	−0.19	0	11	Energy Infrastructure 10.5 · Transitional

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT Critical Technology	SI Strategic Infrastructure	NS National Security	HC Human Capital	II Information & Influence	GI Governance & Integrity	FS Financial Strength	PI Production & Innovation	TI Trade & Investment
Cryptographic trust break	−0.81	−0.44	−0.81	·	−0.98	−0.92	−0.86	−0.37	−0.42
AI labour shock	−0.66	−0.30	·	−0.80	−0.70	−0.83	−0.70	−0.69	−0.69
Severe pandemic	−0.58	−0.29	−0.24	−0.71	−0.62	−0.66	−0.62	−0.61	−0.61
Regional war spillover	−0.28	−0.67	−0.62	−0.26	−0.26	−0.65	−0.60	−0.52	−0.66
Trade bloc rupture	−0.58	−0.22	−0.20	−0.22	−0.52	−0.50	−0.52	−0.51	−0.70
Hybrid coercion	−0.33	−0.72	−0.72	·	−0.80	−0.82	·	−0.30	−0.30
Core disaster	−0.02	−0.63	−0.20	−0.50	−0.22	−0.56	−0.60	−0.51	−0.51
Global funding seizure	−0.16	−0.18	·	−0.18	−0.16	−0.37	−0.60	−0.42	−0.37
Legitimacy rupture	−0.14	−0.16	−0.29	−0.14	−0.34	−0.47	−0.38	−0.14	−0.16
Breadbasket failure	−0.10	−0.25	−0.09	−0.23	−0.22	−0.24	−0.25	−0.19	−0.22

Smaller to larger fall

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what New Zealand is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗	Gainer	+43.8	44.9	1.1	62	24	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2 · Transitional
Chronic disease advance S19 ↗	Gainer	+38.3	52.5	14.1	63	15	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2 · Transitional
Clean power threshold S15 ↗	Gainer	+28.7	29.4	0.7	47	32	Energy Technologies 5.8 · Nascent
Middle East settlement S14 ↗	Gainer	+24.9	25.7	0.8	63	27	Energy Infrastructure 10.9 · Transitional
Public service leap S18 ↗	Gainer	+20.4	24.9	4.6	60	7	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 8.6 · Foundational
Market access opening S12 ↗	Gainer	+20.1	30.8	10.7	63	17	Energy Infrastructure 10.9 · Transitional
Automated discovery step S17 ↗	Gainer	+17.1	26.1	9.0	34	28	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.7 · Inception
Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗	Mixed	+8.5	14.4	5.9	61	51	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2 · Transitional
Great-power détente S13 ↗	Mixed	+6.4	20.9	14.5	39	33	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.7 · Inception
Debt service reset S11 ↗	Mixed	+3.2	6.0	2.8	66	57	Energy Infrastructure 10.9 · Transitional

Reverse stress test

Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for New Zealand, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.

Routes to failure	Basket	Likelihood	Most likely route	Headroom	Lever
Breakdown of state function	16.5 Advanced → Established	2.2% Possible · rank 116	Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail	×2.9	Energy Infrastructure 10.9
Strategic awareness failure	10.0 Transitional → Foundational	1.2% Possible · rank 38	Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×2.4	Quantum Technologies 6
Broad fall in governance and integrity	16.6 Advanced → Established	1.0% Unlikely · rank 127	Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×3.3	Quantum Technologies 6
Loss of financial stability	15.2 Advanced → Transitional	0.9% Unlikely · rank 158	Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×3.3	Quantum Technologies 6
Breakdown of information trust	14.4 Established → Transitional	0.8% Unlikely · rank 66	Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×3.0	Quantum Technologies 6
Broad fall in information and influence	13.3 Established → Transitional	0.7% Unlikely · rank 52	Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×3.0	Quantum Technologies 6
Diplomatic isolation	14.0 Established → Transitional	0.7% Unlikely · rank 52	Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×3.0	Quantum Technologies 6
Broad fall in financial strength	14.8 Established → Transitional	0.5% Unlikely · rank 156	Regional war spillover Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail	×3.5	Quantum Technologies 6
Failure of digital lifelines	12.7 Established → Transitional	0.5% Unlikely · rank 36	Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail	×3.0	Quantum Technologies 6
Rupture in trade and supply	13.3 Established → Transitional	0.5% Unlikely · rank 128	Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail	×3.3	Maritime Power 8.8
Broad fall in national security	7.9 Foundational → Nascent	0.4% Unlikely · rank 39	Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail	×3.7	Energy Infrastructure 10.9
Collapse in energy security	8.9 Foundational → Nascent	0.4% Unlikely · rank 77	Regional war spillover Major + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail	×3.5	Energy Infrastructure 10.9
Rule of law failure	16.9 Advanced → Established	0.3% Unlikely · rank 155	Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail	×3.0	Quantum Technologies 6
Defence readiness failure	8.5 Foundational → Nascent	0.3% Unlikely · rank 50	Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail	×4.0	Energy Infrastructure 10.9
Broad fall in critical technology	7.3 Foundational → Nascent	0.2% Unlikely · rank 20	Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail	×3.7	Quantum Technologies 6
Broad fall in trade and investment	13.8 Established → Transitional	0.2% Unlikely · rank 137	Regional war spillover Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail	×4.3	Artificial Intelligence 9
Broad fall in strategic infrastructure	12.9 Established → Transitional	0.2% Remote · rank 101	Hybrid coercion Extreme + Core disaster Majorplans fail	×4.2	Energy Infrastructure 10.9
Food and water failure	14.4 Established → Transitional	0.2% Remote · rank 140	Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail	×4.5	Financial System Depth & Access 14.2
Health system failure	15.7 Advanced → Transitional	0.2% Remote · rank 184	Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×2.8	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2
Loss of industrial capacity	13.1 Established → Transitional	0.1% Remote · rank 136	Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×4.4	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2
Broad fall in production and innovation	13.5 Established → Transitional	0.1% Remote · rank 128	Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail	×4.4	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2
Loss of advanced technology base	6.3 Foundational → Nascent	under 0.1% Remote · rank 42	Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail	×4.1	Quantum Technologies 6
Broad fall in human capital	15.4 Advanced → Established	under 0.1% Remote · rank 117	Regional war spillover Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail	×3.7	Artificial Intelligence 9
Education pipeline failure	15.8 Advanced → Established	under 0.1% Remote · rank 127	Regional war spillover Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail	×4.0	Artificial Intelligence 9
Loss of strategic deterrence	3.8 Nascent	— No route · rank 45	No route found · closest 2.3 of 3	×5.8	—

Routes to prosperity	Basket	Likelihood	Most likely route	Headroom	Lever
Capable digital government	15.6 Advanced → Advanced	7.7% Likely · rank 24	Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.4	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2
Stronger health and biotechnology	13.8 Established → Advanced	7.4% Likely · rank 27	Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.1	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2
Broad rise in governance and integrity	16.6 Advanced → Frontier	7.0% Likely · rank 23	Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.5	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2 · reaches Frontier
Trusted public institutions	16.6 Advanced → Frontier	4.6% Possible · rank 27	Chronic disease advance Extreme	×1.5	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2 · reaches Frontier
Frontier AI and compute	5.8 Nascent → Foundational	3.0% Possible · rank 28	Automated discovery step Severe + Chronic disease advance Severe	×1.9	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2
Broad rise in critical technology	7.3 Foundational → Foundational	2.3% Possible · rank 25	Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.7	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2
Broad rise in human capital	15.4 Advanced → Advanced	1.8% Possible · rank 26	Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe	×1.7	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2
Reliable low-cost energy	8.3 Foundational → Transitional	1.5% Possible · rank 40	Market access opening Major + Clean power threshold Extreme	×1.7	Energy Technologies 5.8
Broad rise in trade and investment	13.8 Established → Advanced	0.9% Unlikely · rank 31	Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×1.9	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2
Adaptable skilled workforce	14.9 Established → Advanced	0.9% Unlikely · rank 25	Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major	×2.2	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2
Broad rise in financial strength	14.8 Established → Advanced	0.8% Unlikely · rank 27	Public service leap Major + Chronic disease advance Extreme	×1.6	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2
Stronger information environment	12.6 Established → Established	0.8% Unlikely · rank 23	Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×1.7	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2
Research translated into value	14.0 Established → Advanced	0.7% Unlikely · rank 32	Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×2.2	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2
Higher-value manufacturing	9.7 Transitional → Transitional	0.7% Unlikely · rank 29	Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×2.2	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2
Broad rise in strategic infrastructure	12.9 Established → Established	0.4% Unlikely · rank 37	Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×2.0	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2
Sophisticated export strength	13.8 Established → Advanced	0.4% Unlikely · rank 34	Market access opening Severe + Great-power détente Extreme	×2.2	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.7
Higher-value international business	14.1 Established → Advanced	0.4% Unlikely · rank 38	Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Severe	×1.9	Energy Infrastructure 10.9
Broad rise in production and innovation	13.5 Established → Advanced	0.4% Unlikely · rank 32	Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×2.2	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2
Deeper long-term finance	14.3 Established → Advanced	0.3% Unlikely · rank 30	Public service leap Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme	×2.2	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2
Broad rise in information and influence	13.3 Established → Established	0.3% Unlikely · rank 29	Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×1.9	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2
Wider international influence	14.0 Established → Advanced	0.1% Remote · rank 33	Great-power détente Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×2.2	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2
Assured space services	8.3 Foundational → Transitional	under 0.1% Remote · rank 26	Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×2.5	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2
Secure food and water supply	14.4 Established → Advanced	under 0.1% Remote · rank 49	Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme	×2.2	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10.2
Broad rise in national security	7.9 Foundational	— No route · rank 31	No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5	×3.5	—
More deployable joint force	8.6 Foundational	— No route · rank 29	No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5	×3.8	—