Nicaragua
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 30.9
- rank 69 of 197 · 3 years: 30.6
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −12.1
- rank 141 of 197 · 3 years: −11.9
- Shock absorbed
- 19%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.28
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, Trade bloc rupture, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; remittances relative to gdp; share of exports going to china and the united states; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Nicaragua’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.79 | −0.91 | −1.13 | −0.50 | ▼ 4 | 21 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 0.4 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.84 | −0.89 | −1.18 | −0.52 | ▼ 5 | 20 | Financial System Depth & Access 3.5 · Nascent |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.69 | −0.83 | −1.02 | −0.46 | ▼ 2 | 22 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.69 | −0.79 | −0.96 | −0.43 | ▼ 4 | 22 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.74 | −0.79 | −0.94 | −0.42 | ▼ 2 | 22 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1.1 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | Medium 0.54 | −0.64 | −0.77 | −0.34 | ▲ 1 | 18 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | Medium 0.56 | −0.60 | −0.68 | −0.30 | ▼ 1 | 17 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.55 | −0.54 | −0.68 | −0.30 | ▲ 1 | 16 | Economic Output & Productivity 2.7 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Low 0.34 | −0.31 | −0.37 | −0.16 | ▼ 1 | 7 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.26 | −0.31 | −0.40 | −0.18 | ▲ 5 | 11 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 3.9 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.39 | −1.25 | −1.12 | −0.48 | −0.48 | −1.20 | −1.12 | −0.96 | −1.23 |
| Core disaster | −0.05 | −1.33 | −0.43 | −1.06 | −0.48 | −1.19 | −1.27 | −1.09 | −1.09 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.64 | −0.46 | −0.37 | −1.11 | −0.97 | −1.04 | −0.97 | −0.95 | −0.95 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.65 | −0.43 | −0.38 | −0.43 | −0.99 | −0.96 | −0.99 | −0.97 | −1.34 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.35 | −0.52 | −0.91 | −0.47 | −1.10 | −1.53 | −1.25 | −0.47 | −0.54 |
| AI labour shock | −0.52 | −0.33 | · | −0.89 | −0.78 | −0.92 | −0.78 | −0.76 | −0.76 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.57 | −0.44 | −0.80 | · | −0.98 | −0.92 | −0.86 | −0.37 | −0.42 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.26 | −0.36 | · | −0.37 | −0.33 | −0.74 | −1.21 | −0.85 | −0.75 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.19 | −0.50 | −0.50 | · | −0.56 | −0.58 | · | −0.21 | −0.21 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.14 | −0.40 | −0.14 | −0.37 | −0.35 | −0.38 | −0.41 | −0.30 | −0.35 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Nicaragua is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +9.2 | 11.5 | 2.3 | 14 | 88 | Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +3.9 | 10.7 | 6.8 | 17 | 114 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −0.4 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 24 | 125 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 4 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −1.2 | 6.3 | 7.5 | 24 | 118 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.7 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −11.7 | 12.5 | 24.2 | 18 | 136 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −13.2 | 10.1 | 23.3 | 15 | 161 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Loser | −15.2 | 6.1 | 21.3 | 17 | 170 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Loser | −17.6 | 15.6 | 33.1 | 24 | 150 | Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 4 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Loser | −22.2 | 7.0 | 29.2 | 11 | 167 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −30.9 | 2.6 | 33.5 | 6 | 157 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Nicaragua, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 5.6 Nascent → Inception | 3.0% Possible · rank 81 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.8 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 5.7 Nascent → Inception | 2.6% Possible · rank 53 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extreme | ×2.1 | Financial System Depth & Access 5.4 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 5.3 Nascent → Inception | 1.8% Possible · rank 40 | Global funding seizure Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.4 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 5.4 Nascent → Inception | 1.5% Possible · rank 35 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×1.8 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 4.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.5% Possible · rank 82 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×2.0 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 5.2 Nascent → Inception | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 32 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.4 |
| Rule of law failure | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 50 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Extreme | ×1.9 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 58 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Major | ×1.9 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 32 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Financial System Depth & Access 5.4 |
| Health system failure | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 93 | Global funding seizure Severe + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 62 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.3 | Financial System Depth & Access 5.4 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 4.7 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 58 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Food and water failure | 6.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 93 | Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Financial System Depth & Access 5.4 |
| Collapse in energy security | 3.6 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 81 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Majorplans fail | ×1.9 | Maritime Power 2.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 4.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 76 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 3.9 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 142 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.4 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 6.3 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 144 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 |
| Education pipeline failure | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 122 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 155 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.4 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 134 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.6 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 136 | No route found · closest 2.6 of 3 | ×2.7 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.3 Inception | — No route · rank 134 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×11 | — |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 4.6 Nascent | — No route · rank 141 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×3.4 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 134 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.5 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 2.5 Inception | — No route · rank 136 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×2.5 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.7 Inception | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 5.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×13 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 6.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.0 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.9 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.4 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.5 Inception | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.0 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 3.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.6 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.4 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 0.3 of 1.5 | ×14 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.3 | — |
| Capable digital government | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 3.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 5.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Research translated into value | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.4 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 4.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 133 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |