North Macedonia
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on vulnerability; the upside mostly passes them by. One of 40 nations with a similar pattern of results.
High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 23.8
- rank 92 of 197 · 3 years: 23.5
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −4.4
- rank 87 of 197 · 3 years: −4.2
- Shock absorbed
- 27%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.28
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Hybrid coercion. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; youth unemployment rate; internet users as a share of population; trade in goods and services relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in North Macedonia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.97 | −1.04 | −1.36 | −0.61 | ▼ 1 | 28 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.80 | −0.87 | −1.21 | −0.54 | ▼ 1 | 21 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.7 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.80 | −0.83 | −1.16 | −0.52 | ▼ 1 | 21 | Artificial Intelligence 0.6 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.85 | −0.83 | −1.03 | −0.46 | ▼ 1 | 19 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.62 | −0.67 | −0.90 | −0.40 | 0 | 17 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.67 | −0.58 | −0.84 | −0.37 | 0 | 16 | Economic Output & Productivity 5.1 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.71 | −0.57 | −0.76 | −0.34 | ▼ 1 | 14 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.60 | −0.51 | −0.77 | −0.34 | ▲ 2 | 15 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.8 · Nascent |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.47 | −0.42 | −0.66 | −0.29 | ▲ 4 | 15 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 6.1 · Foundational |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.37 | −0.41 | −0.58 | −0.25 | ▲ 3 | 14 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.2 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.58 | −1.43 | −1.07 | −0.55 | −0.55 | −1.38 | −1.28 | −1.10 | −1.42 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.86 | −0.47 | −0.34 | −1.14 | −1.00 | −1.07 | −1.00 | −0.98 | −0.98 |
| AI labour shock | −0.85 | −0.42 | · | −1.13 | −0.99 | −1.16 | −0.99 | −0.97 | −0.97 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.97 | −0.61 | −1.01 | · | −1.35 | −1.27 | −1.19 | −0.51 | −0.58 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.79 | −0.35 | −0.28 | −0.35 | −0.81 | −0.78 | −0.81 | −0.79 | −1.09 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.34 | −0.38 | · | −0.38 | −0.35 | −0.78 | −1.27 | −0.89 | −0.79 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.43 | −0.96 | −0.80 | · | −1.07 | −1.10 | · | −0.40 | −0.40 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.30 | −0.33 | −0.54 | −0.30 | −0.70 | −0.97 | −0.79 | −0.30 | −0.34 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.64 | −0.18 | −0.51 | −0.23 | −0.57 | −0.61 | −0.52 | −0.52 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.21 | −0.51 | −0.16 | −0.48 | −0.46 | −0.49 | −0.52 | −0.39 | −0.45 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what North Macedonia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +18.3 | 18.8 | 0.5 | 21 | 50 | Energy Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +16.9 | 19.6 | 2.7 | 26 | 65 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +16.0 | 17.6 | 1.6 | 34 | 51 | Intelligence & Assessment 5.2 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +1.7 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 28 | 65 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −7.5 | 19.1 | 26.5 | 37 | 100 | Investment Attraction & Projection 6.7 · Foundational |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −7.6 | 5.0 | 12.6 | 41 | 183 | Energy Infrastructure 7.1 · Foundational |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −8.1 | 6.8 | 14.9 | 26 | 136 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −9.2 | 9.4 | 18.6 | 19 | 91 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −15.6 | 10.5 | 26.1 | 12 | 77 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Loser | −16.5 | 19.4 | 35.9 | 27 | 162 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for North Macedonia, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 10.3 Transitional → Foundational | 5.2% Likely · rank 21 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severe | ×1.8 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 3.2% Possible · rank 9 | Regional war spillover Extreme | ×1.6 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Loss of financial stability | 8.7 Foundational → Nascent | 2.8% Possible · rank 48 | Global funding seizure Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 2.6% Possible · rank 18 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.8 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 1.8% Possible · rank 7 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.8 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 1.6% Possible · rank 10 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 1.5% Possible · rank 64 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 3.3 Nascent → Inception | 1.4% Possible · rank 35 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×1.9 | Quantum Technologies 0.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 9.8 Transitional → Foundational | 1.3% Possible · rank 25 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.8 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 6.0 Foundational → Inception | 1.2% Possible · rank 9 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.8 |
| Collapse in energy security | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 33 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Major | ×1.6 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 1.1% Possible · rank 18 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Quantum Technologies 0.8 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 7.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 17 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.1 | Maritime Power 0 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 7.7 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 12 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 |
| Health system failure | 9.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 69 | Breadbasket failure Major + Severe pandemic Extreme | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 16 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 7.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 39 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.2 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 4 |
| Food and water failure | 8.2 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 109 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 4 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 9.0 Transitional → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 51 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 |
| Education pipeline failure | 10.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 56 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 91 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.1 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 100 | No route found · closest 2.7 of 3 | ×2.8 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 91 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.9 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 3.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 127 | No route found · closest 2.7 of 3 | ×3.6 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 1.0 Inception | — No route · rank 91 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 7.2 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 83 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×3.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 4.2 Nascent → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 74 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.7 | Energy Technologies 1.2 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 90 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 7.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 90 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 3.2 Nascent | — No route · rank 90 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.2 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 9.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 90 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 5.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 90 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 9.9 Transitional | — No route · rank 93 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 8.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 90 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 7.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 90 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 91 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Assured space services | 1.1 Inception | — No route · rank 90 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.8 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 1.5 Inception | — No route · rank 90 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.8 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 4.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 90 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 8.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 92 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.1 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 90 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 8.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 90 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 5.7 Nascent | — No route · rank 90 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Wider international influence | 6.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 90 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Capable digital government | 9.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 99 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.8 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 9.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 97 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 7.7 Foundational | — No route · rank 90 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Research translated into value | 6.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 90 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.6 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 7.3 Foundational | — No route · rank 92 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 7.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 90 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |