Norway
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 6.2
- rank 185 of 197 · 3 years: 6.1
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +18.9
- rank 28 of 197 · 3 years: +19.0
- Shock absorbed
- 57%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.02
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 8of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Energy Infrastructure
- weakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Hybrid coercion, AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; land border with russia or belarus; internet users as a share of population; industry as a share of gdp; refugees hosted per head of population; urban share of population; share of population aged 65 and over.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Norway’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.88 | −0.54 | −1.11 | −0.45 | 0 | 12 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 10.9 · Transitional |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.81 | −0.54 | −1.26 | −0.50 | 0 | 15 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 · Transitional |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.97 | −0.50 | −1.08 | −0.46 | ▼ 1 | 14 | Energy Infrastructure 10.6 · Transitional |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.80 | −0.50 | −1.20 | −0.47 | 0 | 14 | Artificial Intelligence 10.3 · Transitional |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.57 | −0.36 | −0.85 | −0.35 | 0 | 11 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.1 · Nascent |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Medium 0.45 | −0.28 | −0.65 | −0.26 | ▲ 1 | 9 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 9.1 · Transitional |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.55 | −0.26 | −0.68 | −0.26 | 0 | 8 | Economic Output & Productivity 12.9 · Established |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.42 | −0.22 | −0.59 | −0.22 | 0 | 8 | Energy Infrastructure 11.5 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.43 | −0.21 | −0.56 | −0.21 | 0 | 6 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.5 · Established |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.24 | −0.15 | −0.38 | −0.15 | 0 | 8 | Energy Infrastructure 11.7 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.70 | −0.38 | −0.70 | · | −0.84 | −0.79 | −0.74 | −0.32 | −0.36 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.57 | −0.29 | −0.23 | −0.69 | −0.60 | −0.65 | −0.60 | −0.59 | −0.59 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.37 | −0.81 | −0.81 | · | −0.91 | −0.93 | · | −0.34 | −0.34 |
| AI labour shock | −0.56 | −0.25 | · | −0.67 | −0.59 | −0.69 | −0.59 | −0.58 | −0.58 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.48 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.18 | −0.43 | −0.41 | −0.43 | −0.42 | −0.57 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.16 | −0.37 | −0.35 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.36 | −0.34 | −0.29 | −0.37 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.16 | −0.17 | · | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.35 | −0.57 | −0.40 | −0.36 |
| Core disaster | −0.01 | −0.33 | −0.10 | −0.26 | −0.12 | −0.29 | −0.31 | −0.27 | −0.27 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.25 | −0.12 | −0.29 | −0.40 | −0.33 | −0.12 | −0.14 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.08 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.18 | −0.19 | −0.15 | −0.17 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Norway is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +53.6 | 54.3 | 0.7 | 69 | 15 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 · Established |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +41.4 | 52.4 | 11.0 | 70 | 13 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 · Established |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Gainer | +31.2 | 41.8 | 10.6 | 47 | 22 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.8 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Gainer | +14.0 | 28.3 | 14.3 | 69 | 27 | Energy Infrastructure 12 · Established |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Gainer | +13.5 | 19.5 | 6.0 | 51 | 24 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.8 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Gainer | +13.3 | 15.5 | 2.2 | 71 | 21 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 12.2 · Established |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +9.9 | 23.3 | 13.4 | 70 | 66 | Energy Infrastructure 12 · Established |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +9.3 | 29.9 | 20.6 | 64 | 85 | Energy Technologies 10.4 · Transitional |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −0.9 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 69 | 110 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 · Established |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −3.0 | 0.6 | 3.6 | 71 | 141 | Energy Infrastructure 12 · Established |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Norway, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 17.2 Advanced → Established | 2.1% Possible · rank 117 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 7.5 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 13.9 Established → Transitional | 1.8% Possible · rank 13 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Quantum Technologies 7.5 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 17.1 Advanced → Established | 1.1% Possible · rank 114 | Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Energy Infrastructure 12 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 14.8 Established → Transitional | 1.1% Possible · rank 40 | Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Energy Infrastructure 12 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 14.4 Established → Transitional | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 28 | Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Energy Infrastructure 12 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 16.5 Advanced → Established | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 26 | Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Energy Infrastructure 12 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 14.7 Established → Transitional | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 8 | Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Energy Infrastructure 12 |
| Rule of law failure | 17.3 Advanced → Established | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 123 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.6 | Quantum Technologies 7.5 |
| Loss of financial stability | 16.8 Advanced → Established | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 177 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.8 | Quantum Technologies 7.5 |
| Broad fall in national security | 11.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 29 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.7 | Energy Infrastructure 12 |
| Defence readiness failure | 13.8 Established → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 32 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.5 | Energy Infrastructure 12 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 16.4 Advanced → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 165 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×4.1 | Quantum Technologies 7.5 |
| Collapse in energy security | 13.0 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 96 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×3.8 | Energy Infrastructure 12 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 14.9 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 96 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×3.7 | Energy Infrastructure 12 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 15.2 Advanced → Established | 0.2% Remote · rank 147 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×5.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 10.5 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 34 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.3 | Quantum Technologies 7.5 |
| Health system failure | 17.0 Advanced → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 188 | Global funding seizure Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 8.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 34 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.7 | Quantum Technologies 7.5 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 14.8 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 147 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×5.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 15.5 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 175 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×5.2 | Energy Infrastructure 12 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 16.6 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 116 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×4.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 14.9 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 139 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×5.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 |
| Food and water failure | 15.0 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 175 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×4.4 | Energy Infrastructure 12 |
| Education pipeline failure | 16.7 Advanced → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 154 | AI labour shock Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×4.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 6.2 Foundational | — No route · rank 43 | No route found · closest 3.0 of 3 | ×6.6 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 15.3 Advanced → Advanced | 13% Likely · rank 16 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 8.6 Foundational → Transitional | 11% Likely · rank 20 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 |
| Capable digital government | 16.7 Advanced → Frontier | 8.1% Likely · rank 23 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 · reaches Frontier |
| Trusted public institutions | 17.1 Advanced → Frontier | 7.4% Likely · rank 21 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 17.1 Advanced → Frontier | 7.0% Likely · rank 22 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 10.5 Transitional → Transitional | 5.2% Likely · rank 20 | Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.8 |
| Research translated into value | 15.5 Advanced → Advanced | 4.5% Possible · rank 21 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.8 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 12.9 Established → Established | 3.8% Possible · rank 21 | Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.8 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 16.6 Advanced → Frontier | 3.1% Possible · rank 22 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 · reaches Frontier |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 11.2 Transitional → Established | 2.7% Possible · rank 37 | Clean power threshold Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.7 | Energy Technologies 10.4 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 15.2 Advanced → Advanced | 2.1% Possible · rank 26 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 16.4 Advanced → Advanced | 1.9% Possible · rank 21 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 14.9 Established → Advanced | 1.9% Possible · rank 24 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 14.9 Established → Advanced | 1.8% Possible · rank 22 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 14.5 Established → Advanced | 1.4% Possible · rank 28 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 |
| Higher-value international business | 14.9 Established → Advanced | 1.1% Possible · rank 26 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 |
| Assured space services | 11.0 Transitional → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 20 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 |
| Secure food and water supply | 15.0 Established → Advanced | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 28 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 |
| Wider international influence | 16.5 Advanced → Frontier | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 22 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 · reaches Frontier |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 14.4 Established → Advanced | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 25 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 16.4 Advanced → Frontier | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 26 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×1.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 · reaches Frontier |
| Stronger information environment | 12.4 Established → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 21 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 15.9 Advanced → Advanced | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 26 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 |
| Broad rise in national security | 11.5 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 22 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.8 |
| More deployable joint force | 13.8 Established → Advanced | under 0.1% Remote · rank 22 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.8 |