Palestine
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile and exposed. Highly vulnerable importers of fuel, finance and food. One of 35 nations with a similar pattern of results.
High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 45.4
- rank 29 of 197 · 3 years: 44.8
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −2.1
- rank 75 of 197 · 3 years: −1.9
- Shock absorbed
- 15%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.37
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Semiconductors & Advanced Computing
- weakest point in 1 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Breadbasket failure, Regional war spillover, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; consumer price inflation; youth unemployment rate; little renewable water per head; share of population aged under 15; internet users as a share of population; few months of imports covered by reserves; low real gdp per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Palestine’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure S06 | High 0.89 | −1.14 | −1.35 | −0.60 | ▼ 10 | 27 | Energy Infrastructure 0.6 · Inception |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.90 | −1.07 | −1.19 | −0.55 | ▼ 6 | 18 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.94 | −0.95 | −1.15 | −0.52 | ▼ 4 | 20 | Monetary & Currency Capability 0.7 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.85 | −0.87 | −0.97 | −0.45 | ▼ 8 | 17 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.67 | −0.80 | −0.96 | −0.43 | ▼ 5 | 16 | Artificial Intelligence 0 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.52 | −0.65 | −0.78 | −0.35 | ▲ 3 | 10 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.1 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.48 | −0.51 | −0.59 | −0.26 | ▲ 5 | 9 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1.4 · Inception |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.56 | −0.51 | −0.59 | −0.26 | ▼ 4 | 8 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.41 | −0.45 | −0.57 | −0.25 | ▲ 7 | 6 | Transport Infrastructure 1.5 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.36 | −0.44 | −0.51 | −0.23 | ▲ 5 | 5 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breadbasket failure | −0.44 | −1.46 | −0.44 | −1.37 | −1.29 | −1.40 | −1.49 | −1.12 | −1.28 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.46 | −1.53 | −0.81 | −0.60 | −0.60 | −1.49 | −1.39 | −1.19 | −1.53 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.43 | −0.64 | −0.91 | −0.58 | −1.33 | −1.88 | −1.55 | −0.58 | −0.66 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.75 | −0.68 | −0.98 | · | −1.49 | −1.42 | −1.32 | −0.57 | −0.65 |
| AI labour shock | −0.66 | −0.42 | · | −1.11 | −0.97 | −1.15 | −0.97 | −0.95 | −0.95 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.54 | −0.36 | −0.26 | −0.87 | −0.76 | −0.81 | −0.76 | −0.75 | −0.75 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.26 | −0.34 | · | −0.34 | −0.31 | −0.69 | −1.13 | −0.79 | −0.70 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.33 | −0.87 | −0.70 | · | −0.97 | −1.00 | · | −0.36 | −0.36 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.69 | −0.20 | −0.54 | −0.24 | −0.61 | −0.65 | −0.56 | −0.56 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.45 | −0.23 | −0.19 | −0.23 | −0.54 | −0.52 | −0.54 | −0.53 | −0.73 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Palestine is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | +9.5 | 13.6 | 4.1 | 18 | 69 | Transport Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +7.8 | 11.8 | 4.1 | 15 | 57 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +3.0 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 16 | 61 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | +2.6 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 12 | 121 | Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Mixed | +0.9 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 15 | 145 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −2.8 | 8.9 | 11.8 | 21 | 137 | Energy Infrastructure 2.9 · Inception |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −6.8 | 9.7 | 16.5 | 16 | 96 | Transport Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −8.8 | 3.0 | 11.8 | 9 | 88 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Loser | −11.5 | 11.4 | 22.9 | 16 | 145 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −16.4 | 4.0 | 20.4 | 7 | 82 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Palestine, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 5.0 Nascent → Inception | 7.8% Likely · rank 4 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.5 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 |
| Loss of financial stability | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 4.8% Possible · rank 8 | Regional war spillover Severe + Legitimacy rupture Severe | ×1.7 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 4.9 Nascent → Inception | 3.4% Possible · rank 9 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×1.6 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 |
| Food and water failure | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 3.1% Possible · rank 4 | Breadbasket failure Extreme | ×1.3 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.8 |
| Rule of law failure | 5.1 Nascent → Inception | 2.6% Possible · rank 3 | Regional war spillover Major + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×1.6 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 2.5% Possible · rank 15 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Major | ×1.9 | Maritime Power 0.5 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 4.6 Nascent → Inception | 2.3% Possible · rank 2 | Hybrid coercion Major + Legitimacy rupture Severeplans fail | ×1.6 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4 |
| Health system failure | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | 1.3% Possible · rank 22 | Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×1.8 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.8 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 4.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 36 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 4.3 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 41 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Severe | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 0.5 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 51 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Breadbasket failure Severe | ×2.5 | Maritime Power 0.5 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 6.4 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 8 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.8 |
| Education pipeline failure | 7.3 Foundational → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 5 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.1 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.8 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 3.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 74 | Legitimacy rupture Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.8 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 3.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 74 | Regional war spillover Major + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.8 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 3.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 141 | Regional war spillover Severe + Breadbasket failure Extremeplans fail | ×2.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.8 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 4.1 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 80 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extreme | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 0.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 154 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×4.0 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 155 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 0.4 Inception | — No route · rank 154 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×8.4 | — |
| Collapse in energy security | 2.0 Inception | — No route · rank 157 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.7 | — |
| Defence readiness failure | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 161 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.0 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 154 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×5.4 | — |
| Strategic awareness failure | 1.9 Inception | — No route · rank 155 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.9 | — |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 179 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×1.4 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Broad rise in critical technology | 0.8 Inception | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.7 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 3.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×5.7 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×6.7 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 6.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.6 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×5.5 | — |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.3 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.4 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.4 | — |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.6 | — |
| Assured space services | 0.6 Inception | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×11 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 0.9 Inception | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.5 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 2.4 Inception | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 0.5 of 1.5 | ×8.5 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 1.8 Inception | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 5.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.2 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 1.6 Inception | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 0.4 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 5.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.8 | — |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 4.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 5.4 Nascent | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.3 | — |
| Wider international influence | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Capable digital government | 5.9 Nascent | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Trusted public institutions | 4.8 Nascent | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.4 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 4.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.0 | — |
| Research translated into value | 4.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×6.4 | — |
| Higher-value international business | 3.5 Nascent | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 0.7 of 1.5 | ×6.2 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 3.3 Nascent | — No route · rank 154 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×7.7 | — |