Peru
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 10.8
- rank 158 of 197 · 3 years: 10.5
- Opportunity · 10 years
- −4.0
- rank 84 of 197 · 3 years: −3.8
- Shock absorbed
- 35%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.14
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Trade bloc rupture, Global funding seizure. Highest exposure indicators: earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; share of exports going to china and the united states; internet users as a share of population; urban share of population; industry as a share of gdp; low life expectancy at birth; refugees hosted per head of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Peru’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.88 | −0.74 | −1.23 | −0.54 | ▼ 2 | 32 | Energy Infrastructure 7.8 · Foundational |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.68 | −0.70 | −1.06 | −0.46 | 0 | 24 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.63 | −0.63 | −0.94 | −0.41 | 0 | 23 | Artificial Intelligence 2.7 · Inception |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.65 | −0.63 | −0.83 | −0.36 | 0 | 19 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.7 · Inception |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.57 | −0.55 | −0.84 | −0.37 | ▼ 1 | 20 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.1 · Inception |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | High 0.65 | −0.54 | −0.84 | −0.37 | ▼ 1 | 19 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.7 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | Medium 0.41 | −0.32 | −0.46 | −0.20 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.8 · Inception |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.43 | −0.31 | −0.53 | −0.23 | 0 | 9 | Labour & Employment 7.5 · Foundational |
| Regional war spillover S03 | Low 0.33 | −0.30 | −0.48 | −0.21 | ▲ 4 | 10 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 3.7 · Nascent |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.20 | −0.19 | −0.32 | −0.14 | ▲ 1 | 9 | Internal Security & Order 8.3 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.12 | −0.36 | −0.89 | −0.40 | −1.00 | −1.07 | −0.91 | −0.91 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.74 | −0.37 | −0.30 | −0.90 | −0.79 | −0.84 | −0.79 | −0.77 | −0.77 |
| AI labour shock | −0.70 | −0.32 | · | −0.85 | −0.74 | −0.87 | −0.74 | −0.73 | −0.73 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.82 | −0.45 | −0.82 | · | −0.99 | −0.93 | −0.87 | −0.37 | −0.43 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.72 | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.28 | −0.65 | −0.63 | −0.65 | −0.64 | −0.87 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.32 | −0.35 | −0.63 | −0.32 | −0.74 | −1.03 | −0.84 | −0.32 | −0.36 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.24 | −0.52 | −0.52 | · | −0.58 | −0.59 | · | −0.22 | −0.22 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.19 | −0.21 | · | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.42 | −0.68 | −0.48 | −0.43 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.17 | −0.40 | −0.37 | −0.15 | −0.15 | −0.38 | −0.36 | −0.31 | −0.39 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.10 | −0.24 | −0.08 | −0.22 | −0.21 | −0.23 | −0.24 | −0.18 | −0.21 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Peru is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +18.6 | 23.2 | 4.7 | 37 | 64 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +4.6 | 20.2 | 15.6 | 31 | 55 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.2 · Nascent |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +3.1 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 50 | 59 | Energy Infrastructure 9.4 · Transitional |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | +2.8 | 24.5 | 21.7 | 39 | 62 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | −2.1 | 25.6 | 27.7 | 49 | 78 | Investment Attraction & Projection 9.3 · Transitional |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | −2.3 | 11.8 | 14.1 | 38 | 119 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Mixed | −7.9 | 14.1 | 21.9 | 33 | 150 | Energy Technologies 3.8 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −8.3 | 11.9 | 20.2 | 25 | 83 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.2 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Mixed | −8.6 | 8.2 | 16.7 | 44 | 157 | Intelligence & Assessment 8 · Foundational |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Loser | −16.4 | 8.9 | 25.3 | 17 | 81 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.2 · Inception |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Peru, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 176 | Legitimacy rupture Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7 |
| Loss of financial stability | 11.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 159 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 9.6 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 164 | Legitimacy rupture Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Artificial Intelligence 4 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 11.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 157 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 9.6 |
| Health system failure | 9.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 125 | Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.2 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 9.6 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 8.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 127 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7 |
| Rule of law failure | 10.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 160 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×2.9 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 10.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 149 | Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 9.6 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 10.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 138 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Food and water failure | 11.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 129 | Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 9.6 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 9.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 119 | Global funding seizure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 9.6 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 5.5 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 82 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 1.5 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 10.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 105 | Breadbasket failure Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 9.6 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 8.0 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 119 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Quantum Technologies 1.5 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 7.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 121 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Quantum Technologies 1.5 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 8.8 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 135 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.3 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 9.6 |
| Collapse in energy security | 8.6 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 118 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 9.6 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 9.5 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 153 | Core disaster Extreme + AI labour shock Majorplans fail | ×3.3 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 9.6 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 8.4 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 97 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Quantum Technologies 1.5 |
| Education pipeline failure | 10.5 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 162 | Core disaster Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Artificial Intelligence 4 |
| Defence readiness failure | 8.9 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 118 | Hybrid coercion Extreme + Legitimacy rupture Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 66 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×3.7 | — |
| Broad fall in national security | 6.5 Foundational → Nascent | — Remote · rank 90 | Legitimacy rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Quantum Technologies 1.5 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 2.1 Inception | — No route · rank 65 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×3.6 | — |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 2.9 Inception | — No route · rank 67 | Already at the foot of the scale | ×6.0 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 8.4 Foundational → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 68 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 9.9 Transitional → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 62 | Market access opening Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×3.0 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.2 |
| Capable digital government | 9.9 Transitional → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 71 | Market access opening Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.5 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.2 |
| Trusted public institutions | 9.9 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 72 | Market access opening Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.5 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.2 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 10.3 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 63 | Market access opening Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Investment Attraction & Projection 9.3 |
| Higher-value international business | 9.4 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 67 | Market access opening Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Investment Attraction & Projection 9.3 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 64 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 10.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 68 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.3 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 6.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 62 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.4 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 9.5 Transitional | — No route · rank 65 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 8.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 63 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 11.2 Transitional | — No route · rank 63 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 8.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 62 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Assured space services | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 62 | No route found · closest 0.8 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Frontier AI and compute | 2.6 Inception | — No route · rank 63 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.1 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 6.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 62 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 6.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 82 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 11.3 Transitional | — No route · rank 72 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 8.4 Foundational | — No route · rank 62 | No route found · closest 0.6 of 1.5 | ×8.4 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 8.6 Foundational | — No route · rank 65 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 8.1 Foundational | — No route · rank 62 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Wider international influence | 7.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 65 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.3 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 10.6 Transitional | — No route · rank 63 | No route found · closest 1.1 of 1.5 | ×4.0 | — |
| Research translated into value | 7.5 Foundational | — No route · rank 65 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.9 | — |
| Sophisticated export strength | 10.5 Transitional | — No route · rank 63 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×2.9 | — |