Philippines
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 14.6
- rank 137 of 197 · 3 years: 14.3
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +6.7
- rank 49 of 197 · 3 years: +7.1
- Shock absorbed
- 36%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.19
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI labour shock, Regional war spillover, Hybrid coercion. Highest exposure indicators: earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; internet users as a share of population; remittances relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Philippines’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.85 | −0.84 | −1.26 | −0.55 | 0 | 21 | Artificial Intelligence 3.6 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.85 | −0.80 | −1.08 | −0.47 | 0 | 21 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.5 · Inception |
| Core disaster S07 | High 0.87 | −0.74 | −1.22 | −0.53 | 0 | 21 | Energy Infrastructure 7.3 · Foundational |
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.73 | −0.66 | −1.07 | −0.47 | ▲ 2 | 19 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 3.6 · Nascent |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.66 | −0.63 | −0.99 | −0.43 | 0 | 17 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.9 · Inception |
| Severe pandemic S10 | Medium 0.57 | −0.57 | −0.89 | −0.39 | ▲ 3 | 19 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.9 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.69 | −0.50 | −0.77 | −0.34 | ▲ 1 | 17 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.7 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.51 | −0.42 | −0.65 | −0.29 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Internal Security & Order 7.3 · Foundational |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.30 | −0.29 | −0.48 | −0.21 | ▲ 2 | 10 | Population Health 7.4 · Foundational |
| Global funding seizure S02 | Medium 0.37 | −0.28 | −0.47 | −0.20 | ▲ 3 | 8 | Labour & Employment 8.1 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI labour shock | −0.94 | −0.43 | · | −1.14 | −0.99 | −1.17 | −0.99 | −0.97 | −0.97 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −1.03 | −0.56 | −1.03 | · | −1.25 | −1.17 | −1.10 | −0.47 | −0.54 |
| Core disaster | −0.04 | −1.12 | −0.36 | −0.89 | −0.40 | −1.00 | −1.06 | −0.91 | −0.91 |
| Regional war spillover | −0.37 | −0.88 | −0.81 | −0.34 | −0.34 | −0.85 | −0.79 | −0.68 | −0.87 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.83 | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.32 | −0.74 | −0.71 | −0.74 | −0.73 | −1.00 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.61 | −0.31 | −0.25 | −0.74 | −0.65 | −0.69 | −0.65 | −0.63 | −0.63 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.37 | −0.80 | −0.80 | · | −0.89 | −0.92 | · | −0.34 | −0.34 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.25 | −0.27 | −0.49 | −0.25 | −0.57 | −0.80 | −0.65 | −0.25 | −0.28 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.15 | −0.37 | −0.13 | −0.34 | −0.33 | −0.35 | −0.38 | −0.28 | −0.32 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.17 | −0.18 | · | −0.19 | −0.17 | −0.38 | −0.61 | −0.43 | −0.38 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Philippines is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +25.4 | 26.6 | 1.2 | 35 | 38 | Energy Technologies 4.8 · Nascent |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +18.7 | 21.1 | 2.4 | 39 | 63 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +16.8 | 18.1 | 1.3 | 45 | 44 | Internal Security & Order 8.3 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +9.8 | 22.8 | 13.0 | 34 | 33 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.4 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +6.6 | 16.5 | 9.9 | 39 | 63 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Foundational |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +6.2 | 29.3 | 23.1 | 48 | 51 | Energy Infrastructure 8.9 · Foundational |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +3.7 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 47 | 49 | Energy Infrastructure 8.9 · Foundational |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Mixed | −1.8 | 17.3 | 19.1 | 39 | 89 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Foundational |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Mixed | −4.5 | 19.2 | 23.7 | 26 | 55 | Robotics & Autonomous Systems 3.8 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | −7.0 | 20.4 | 27.3 | 35 | 78 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.2 · Nascent |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Philippines, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 10.0 Transitional → Foundational | 3.7% Possible · rank 56 | Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Social Infrastructure 9.4 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 9.6 Transitional → Foundational | 1.8% Possible · rank 59 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.6 | Quantum Technologies 2 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 6.2 Foundational → Nascent | 1.7% Possible · rank 16 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×1.9 | Quantum Technologies 2 |
| Loss of financial stability | 11.1 Transitional → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 146 | Global funding seizure Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Social Infrastructure 9.4 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 10.2 Transitional → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 71 | Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Energy Infrastructure 8.9 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 9.2 Transitional → Foundational | 1.1% Possible · rank 43 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 2 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 9.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 30 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 2 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 10.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 40 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 2 |
| Collapse in energy security | 7.6 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 47 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Energy Infrastructure 8.9 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 9.6 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 19 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Core disaster Severeplans fail | ×2.7 | Social Infrastructure 9.4 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 9.1 Transitional → Nascent | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 23 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 2 |
| Rule of law failure | 9.1 Transitional → Nascent | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 105 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 2 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 10.7 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 146 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.7 | Quantum Technologies 2 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 10.4 Transitional → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 68 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Severe pandemic Majorplans fail | ×3.0 | Economic Leverage & Dependence 8.7 |
| Health system failure | 9.0 Transitional → Nascent | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 113 | Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Social Infrastructure 9.4 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 9.9 Transitional → Foundational | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 69 | Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Social Infrastructure 9.4 |
| Broad fall in national security | 6.9 Foundational → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 42 | Regional war spillover Major + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Quantum Technologies 2 |
| Defence readiness failure | 9.1 Transitional → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 43 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.2 | Quantum Technologies 2 |
| Food and water failure | 9.8 Transitional → Nascent | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 105 | Hybrid coercion Major + Core disaster Extremeplans fail | ×2.5 | Social Infrastructure 9.4 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 3.2 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 16 | Trade bloc rupture Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×3.1 | Economic Leverage & Dependence 8.7 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 9.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.2% Remote · rank 98 | Trade bloc rupture Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Artificial Intelligence 5.3 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 4.0 Nascent → Inception | 0.1% Remote · rank 38 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×2.9 | Quantum Technologies 2 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 9.2 Transitional → Foundational | 0.1% Remote · rank 98 | Trade bloc rupture Major + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.6 | Artificial Intelligence 5.3 |
| Education pipeline failure | 9.8 Transitional → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 102 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + AI labour shock Extremeplans fail | ×2.8 | Artificial Intelligence 5.3 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 3.1 Nascent | — No route · rank 66 | No route found · closest 2.9 of 3 | ×4.4 | — |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliable low-cost energy | 6.8 Foundational → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 44 | Market access opening Major + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.9 | Energy Technologies 4.8 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 10.4 Transitional → Transitional | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 40 | Market access opening Severe + Great-power détente Extreme | ×2.2 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.2 |
| Capable digital government | 10.1 Transitional → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 66 | Market access opening Severe + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.2 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.4 |
| Trusted public institutions | 9.2 Transitional → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 63 | Market access opening Severe + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.2 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.4 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 10.4 Transitional → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 38 | Market access opening Severe + Great-power détente Extreme | ×2.5 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.2 |
| Higher-value international business | 10.2 Transitional → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 42 | Market access opening Extreme + Great-power détente Severe | ×2.0 | Energy Infrastructure 8.9 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 9.6 Transitional → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 64 | Market access opening Extreme + Public service leap Extreme | ×2.7 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.4 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 9.6 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 54 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.8 | Energy Infrastructure 8.9 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 9.2 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 46 | Market access opening Extreme + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.9 | Energy Technologies 4.8 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 4.8 Nascent → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 57 | Great-power détente Extreme + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.6 | Robotics & Autonomous Systems 3.8 |
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 8.0 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 73 | Chronic disease advance Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 |
| Research translated into value | 8.1 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 55 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×3.1 | Robotics & Autonomous Systems 3.8 |
| Wider international influence | 9.3 Transitional → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 50 | Great-power détente Extreme + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×2.9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.2 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 63 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.4 | — |
| Broad rise in national security | 6.9 Foundational | — No route · rank 61 | No route found · closest 1.0 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Broad rise in human capital | 9.2 Transitional | — No route · rank 64 | No route found · closest 1.4 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 10.0 Transitional | — No route · rank 62 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.7 | — |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 10.7 Transitional | — No route · rank 62 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.2 | — |
| Assured space services | 4.0 Nascent | — No route · rank 61 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×5.0 | — |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 7.0 Foundational | — No route · rank 61 | No route found · closest 1.3 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Secure food and water supply | 9.8 Transitional | — No route · rank 71 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |
| More deployable joint force | 8.8 Foundational | — No route · rank 61 | No route found · closest 0.9 of 1.5 | ×4.9 | — |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 9.2 Transitional | — No route · rank 64 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×2.7 | — |
| Stronger information environment | 10.7 Transitional | — No route · rank 61 | No route found · closest 1.2 of 1.5 | ×3.5 | — |
| Deeper long-term finance | 10.6 Transitional | — No route · rank 62 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.0 | — |