Poland
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 27 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 9.8
- rank 164 of 197 · 3 years: 9.7
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +20.4
- rank 25 of 197 · 3 years: +20.7
- Shock absorbed
- 48%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.09
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 6of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Maritime Power
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Hybrid coercion, Regional war spillover, AI labour shock. Highest exposure indicators: land border with russia or belarus; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; refugees hosted per head of population; internet users as a share of population; share of population aged 65 and over.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Poland’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.89 | −0.68 | −1.30 | −0.56 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Maritime Power 7.3 · Foundational |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.79 | −0.63 | −1.22 | −0.53 | 0 | 16 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10 · Transitional |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.80 | −0.62 | −1.19 | −0.52 | 0 | 16 | Artificial Intelligence 9.1 · Transitional |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.85 | −0.60 | −1.08 | −0.47 | 0 | 12 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 9.4 · Transitional |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.91 | −0.52 | −1.01 | −0.44 | ▼ 1 | 13 | Maritime Power 7.4 · Foundational |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | High 0.60 | −0.47 | −0.89 | −0.39 | 0 | 9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.2 · Nascent |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.65 | −0.41 | −0.82 | −0.36 | ▼ 1 | 9 | Investment Attraction & Projection 11.7 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.47 | −0.32 | −0.61 | −0.27 | ▲ 1 | 7 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 11.5 · Transitional |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Medium 0.37 | −0.30 | −0.58 | −0.25 | ▼ 1 | 6 | Energy Infrastructure 10.9 · Transitional |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.40 | −0.28 | −0.56 | −0.24 | ▲ 1 | 4 | Energy Infrastructure 10.9 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.39 | −0.91 | −0.84 | −0.35 | −0.35 | −0.88 | −0.82 | −0.70 | −0.90 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.67 | −0.34 | −0.27 | −0.81 | −0.71 | −0.76 | −0.71 | −0.70 | −0.70 |
| AI labour shock | −0.69 | −0.31 | · | −0.84 | −0.73 | −0.87 | −0.73 | −0.72 | −0.72 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.78 | −0.43 | −0.78 | · | −0.95 | −0.89 | −0.83 | −0.36 | −0.41 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.38 | −0.84 | −0.84 | · | −0.93 | −0.96 | · | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.62 | −0.24 | −0.21 | −0.24 | −0.56 | −0.54 | −0.56 | −0.54 | −0.75 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.25 | −0.27 | · | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.56 | −0.91 | −0.64 | −0.57 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.18 | −0.20 | −0.37 | −0.18 | −0.43 | −0.60 | −0.49 | −0.18 | −0.21 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.16 | −0.38 | −0.13 | −0.35 | −0.34 | −0.36 | −0.39 | −0.29 | −0.33 |
| Core disaster | −0.01 | −0.41 | −0.13 | −0.33 | −0.15 | −0.37 | −0.39 | −0.34 | −0.34 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Poland is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +47.5 | 47.8 | 0.3 | 55 | 13 | Energy Technologies 9.4 · Transitional |
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +44.0 | 45.7 | 1.7 | 60 | 23 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2 · Transitional |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +37.0 | 38.0 | 0.9 | 62 | 7 | Energy Infrastructure 11.5 · Transitional |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +20.3 | 45.5 | 25.2 | 61 | 30 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2 · Transitional |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Gainer | +19.1 | 36.6 | 17.4 | 43 | 24 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2 · Foundational |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Gainer | +10.1 | 15.4 | 5.4 | 59 | 30 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 10.8 · Transitional |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | +9.7 | 21.0 | 11.4 | 47 | 26 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2 · Foundational |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +8.0 | 26.8 | 18.8 | 62 | 41 | Energy Infrastructure 11.5 · Transitional |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +6.7 | 15.1 | 8.3 | 60 | 60 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2 · Transitional |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | −3.4 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 62 | 147 | Energy Infrastructure 11.5 · Transitional |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Poland, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 13.7 Established → Transitional | 3.5% Possible · rank 60 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 7.3 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 12.0 Transitional → Foundational | 2.2% Possible · rank 8 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Quantum Technologies 7.3 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 13.1 Established → Transitional | 1.6% Possible · rank 75 | Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.1 | Energy Infrastructure 11.5 |
| Collapse in energy security | 11.1 Transitional → Foundational | 1.4% Possible · rank 13 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.6 | Maritime Power 8.8 |
| Loss of financial stability | 13.6 Established → Transitional | 1.2% Possible · rank 138 | Global funding seizure Extremeplans fail | ×3.0 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 10.6 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 12.8 Established → Transitional | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 54 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Energy Infrastructure 11.5 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 13.1 Established → Transitional | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 124 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Maritime Power 8.8 |
| Defence readiness failure | 12.9 Established → Transitional | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 12 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.4 | Energy Infrastructure 11.5 |
| Rule of law failure | 12.4 Established → Transitional | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 60 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Quantum Technologies 7.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 11.0 Transitional → Foundational | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 12 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.5 | Energy Infrastructure 11.5 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 13.4 Established → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 103 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Maritime Power 8.8 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 12.7 Established → Transitional | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 47 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Energy Infrastructure 11.5 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 12.8 Established → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 51 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Energy Infrastructure 11.5 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 12.9 Established → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 26 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Maritime Power 8.8 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 12.8 Established → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 26 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Energy Infrastructure 11.5 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 13.2 Established → Transitional | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 67 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.3 | Maritime Power 8.8 |
| Health system failure | 12.7 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 159 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 12.9 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 92 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×4.2 | Maritime Power 8.8 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 13.6 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 113 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Extremeplans fail | ×4.2 | Maritime Power 8.8 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 9.4 Transitional → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 31 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Quantum Technologies 7.3 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.2% Remote · rank 27 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×4.2 | Quantum Technologies 7.3 |
| Food and water failure | 12.7 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Remote · rank 148 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×4.3 | Energy Infrastructure 11.5 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 13.3 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 96 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 6.7 Foundational → Nascent | under 0.1% Remote · rank 14 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×4.3 | Maritime Power 8.8 |
| Education pipeline failure | 14.2 Established → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 95 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 12.2 Established → Established | 7.6% Likely · rank 23 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 8.3 Foundational → Transitional | 5.1% Likely · rank 24 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2 |
| Capable digital government | 13.6 Established → Advanced | 4.9% Possible · rank 28 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2 |
| Trusted public institutions | 12.6 Established → Established | 4.9% Possible · rank 25 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 10.4 Transitional → Established | 4.8% Possible · rank 19 | Clean power threshold Severe + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.1 | Energy Technologies 9.4 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 13.1 Established → Established | 4.5% Possible · rank 25 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 9.4 Transitional → Transitional | 3.7% Possible · rank 23 | Clean power threshold Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2 |
| Research translated into value | 12.3 Established → Established | 2.5% Possible · rank 23 | Clean power threshold Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 13.3 Established → Established | 2.3% Possible · rank 24 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 13.2 Established → Established | 2.1% Possible · rank 28 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 12.0 Established → Established | 2.0% Possible · rank 23 | Clean power threshold Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 12.9 Established → Established | 1.8% Possible · rank 25 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.7 | Energy Technologies 9.4 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 12.9 Established → Established | 1.8% Possible · rank 23 | Clean power threshold Severe + Automated discovery step Severe | ×1.6 | Energy Technologies 9.4 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 13.6 Established → Advanced | 1.6% Possible · rank 27 | Great-power détente Major + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.1 | Energy Technologies 9.4 |
| Higher-value international business | 12.9 Established → Established | 1.4% Possible · rank 25 | Market access opening Major + Clean power threshold Extreme | ×2.1 | Energy Technologies 9.4 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 13.1 Established → Established | 1.1% Possible · rank 21 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.8 | Energy Technologies 9.4 |
| Secure food and water supply | 12.7 Established → Established | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 26 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2 |
| Wider international influence | 12.8 Established → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 21 | Market access opening Major + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×1.6 | Energy Infrastructure 11.5 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 12.9 Established → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 20 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Major | ×1.7 | Energy Technologies 9.4 |
| Stronger information environment | 12.6 Established → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 25 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 12.8 Established → Established | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 28 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.2 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2 |
| Assured space services | 9.0 Foundational → Transitional | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 22 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 12.7 Established → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 26 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2 |
| Broad rise in national security | 11.0 Transitional → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 25 | Middle East settlement Severe + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.4 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2 |
| More deployable joint force | 12.4 Established → Established | under 0.1% Remote · rank 26 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×2.6 | Energy Infrastructure 11.5 |