Portugal
Read with care
Third illustrative run, on the second-pass scenario set. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings were drafted with the scenario records in the second pass; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario’s regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.
Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Low vulnerability, and gains from open markets and digital public services. One of 39 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
- Vulnerability · 10 years
- 10.3
- rank 162 of 197 · 3 years: 10.2
- Opportunity · 10 years
- +16.3
- rank 30 of 197 · 3 years: +16.6
- Shock absorbed
- 46%
- by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
- Policy dividend
- +0.11
- expected index points from best practice
- Breadth
- 10of 10
- scenarios in which a domain falls a band
- Weakest link
- Energy Infrastructure
- weakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Regional war spillover, AI labour shock, Hybrid coercion. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; public debt relative to gdp; share of population aged 65 and over; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Portugal’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
ScenarioChange in index, points
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover S03 | High 0.91 | −0.75 | −1.33 | −0.58 | ▼ 1 | 20 | Strategic Strike & Missile Defence 3.5 · Nascent |
| Cryptographic trust break S09 | High 0.87 | −0.66 | −1.10 | −0.48 | 0 | 15 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 7.4 · Foundational |
| Severe pandemic S10 | High 0.81 | −0.66 | −1.26 | −0.55 | 0 | 16 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.3 · Foundational |
| AI labour shock S08 | High 0.82 | −0.64 | −1.23 | −0.54 | 0 | 15 | Artificial Intelligence 7.7 · Foundational |
| Global funding seizure S02 | High 0.83 | −0.53 | −1.04 | −0.45 | 0 | 10 | Economic Output & Productivity 10.2 · Transitional |
| Trade bloc rupture S01 | Medium 0.56 | −0.46 | −0.83 | −0.36 | 0 | 10 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.9 · Nascent |
| Hybrid coercion S04 | High 0.72 | −0.46 | −0.80 | −0.35 | 0 | 11 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 8.1 · Foundational |
| Core disaster S07 | Medium 0.57 | −0.38 | −0.79 | −0.35 | ▲ 1 | 7 | Energy Infrastructure 10.4 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy rupture S05 | Medium 0.51 | −0.33 | −0.66 | −0.29 | ▲ 1 | 6 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 10.6 · Transitional |
| Breadbasket failure S06 | Low 0.35 | −0.28 | −0.54 | −0.24 | 0 | 6 | Energy Infrastructure 10.7 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT Critical Technology | SI Strategic Infrastructure | NS National Security | HC Human Capital | II Information & Influence | GI Governance & Integrity | FS Financial Strength | PI Production & Innovation | TI Trade & Investment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional war spillover | −0.43 | −1.01 | −0.93 | −0.39 | −0.39 | −0.97 | −0.90 | −0.77 | −1.00 |
| Cryptographic trust break | −0.86 | −0.47 | −0.86 | · | −1.04 | −0.98 | −0.91 | −0.39 | −0.45 |
| Severe pandemic | −0.70 | −0.35 | −0.29 | −0.85 | −0.75 | −0.80 | −0.75 | −0.73 | −0.73 |
| AI labour shock | −0.71 | −0.32 | · | −0.87 | −0.76 | −0.89 | −0.76 | −0.74 | −0.74 |
| Global funding seizure | −0.32 | −0.35 | · | −0.35 | −0.32 | −0.71 | −1.16 | −0.81 | −0.72 |
| Trade bloc rupture | −0.60 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.23 | −0.54 | −0.52 | −0.54 | −0.53 | −0.73 |
| Hybrid coercion | −0.34 | −0.75 | −0.75 | · | −0.83 | −0.86 | · | −0.31 | −0.31 |
| Core disaster | −0.02 | −0.58 | −0.19 | −0.46 | −0.21 | −0.51 | −0.55 | −0.47 | −0.47 |
| Legitimacy rupture | −0.19 | −0.21 | −0.38 | −0.19 | −0.44 | −0.61 | −0.50 | −0.19 | −0.22 |
| Breadbasket failure | −0.15 | −0.35 | −0.12 | −0.33 | −0.31 | −0.34 | −0.36 | −0.27 | −0.31 |
Smaller to larger fall
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Portugal is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Outbreak defence succeeds S20 ↗ | Gainer | +42.3 | 43.9 | 1.6 | 56 | 27 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 · Transitional |
| Clean power threshold S15 ↗ | Gainer | +35.8 | 38.5 | 2.7 | 46 | 21 | Energy Technologies 6.6 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S14 ↗ | Gainer | +26.7 | 29.1 | 2.4 | 57 | 23 | Intelligence & Assessment 10 · Transitional |
| Automated discovery step S17 ↗ | Gainer | +18.2 | 32.1 | 14.0 | 38 | 26 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 · Nascent |
| Chronic disease advance S19 ↗ | Gainer | +14.8 | 40.9 | 26.1 | 57 | 40 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 · Transitional |
| Market access opening S12 ↗ | Mixed | +9.9 | 23.8 | 13.9 | 61 | 36 | Energy Infrastructure 11.3 · Transitional |
| Public service leap S18 ↗ | Mixed | +9.6 | 14.2 | 4.6 | 56 | 34 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 9 · Transitional |
| Great-power détente S13 ↗ | Mixed | +7.0 | 19.0 | 12.0 | 41 | 32 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 · Nascent |
| Water-efficient food leap S16 ↗ | Mixed | +1.4 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 56 | 94 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 · Transitional |
| Debt service reset S11 ↗ | Mixed | +0.1 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 62 | 95 | Energy Infrastructure 11.3 · Transitional |
Reverse stress test
Working backwards from an outcome to the conditions most likely to produce it for Portugal, over 10 years. Headroom is how many times Standard Severe the nearest single scenario would have to be. The lever is the capability where a change would move the result most.How to read it.
| Routes to failure | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breakdown of state function | 14.2 Established → Transitional | 3.5% Possible · rank 61 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.6 | Resource Infrastructure 8.3 |
| Loss of financial stability | 13.4 Established → Transitional | 3.5% Possible · rank 25 | Global funding seizure Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Quantum Technologies 5.5 |
| Broad fall in governance and integrity | 14.0 Established → Transitional | 1.8% Possible · rank 64 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.1 | Quantum Technologies 5.5 |
| Strategic awareness failure | 8.5 Foundational → Nascent | 1.4% Possible · rank 29 | Hybrid coercion Major + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.3 | Quantum Technologies 5.5 |
| Broad fall in financial strength | 13.0 Established → Transitional | 1.4% Possible · rank 72 | Global funding seizure Severe + Cryptographic trust break Majorplans fail | ×2.6 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 11 |
| Collapse in energy security | 8.7 Foundational → Nascent | 1.2% Possible · rank 24 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Majorplans fail | ×2.3 | Resource Infrastructure 8.3 |
| Breakdown of information trust | 12.9 Established → Transitional | 1.0% Possible · rank 48 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Quantum Technologies 5.5 |
| Rupture in trade and supply | 12.4 Established → Transitional | 0.9% Unlikely · rank 93 | Trade bloc rupture Major + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×2.2 | Resource Infrastructure 8.3 |
| Broad fall in national security | 8.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 13 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×3.2 | Resource Infrastructure 8.3 |
| Broad fall in trade and investment | 12.5 Established → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 46 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Resource Infrastructure 8.3 |
| Broad fall in information and influence | 12.2 Established → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 53 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Quantum Technologies 5.5 |
| Rule of law failure | 13.9 Established → Transitional | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 95 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Quantum Technologies 5.5 |
| Diplomatic isolation | 11.8 Transitional → Foundational | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 53 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Quantum Technologies 5.5 |
| Broad fall in production and innovation | 12.4 Established → Transitional | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 22 | Global funding seizure Severe + AI labour shock Severeplans fail | ×3.7 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 11 |
| Defence readiness failure | 10.3 Transitional → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 20 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.1 | Resource Infrastructure 8.3 |
| Failure of digital lifelines | 12.1 Established → Foundational | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 33 | Hybrid coercion Severe + Cryptographic trust break Severeplans fail | ×2.9 | Quantum Technologies 5.5 |
| Loss of industrial capacity | 12.2 Established → Transitional | 0.6% Unlikely · rank 36 | Global funding seizure Severe + Regional war spillover Severeplans fail | ×3.5 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 11 |
| Broad fall in strategic infrastructure | 12.0 Established → Foundational | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 37 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Severeplans fail | ×3.0 | Resource Infrastructure 8.3 |
| Health system failure | 14.2 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 143 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Severeplans fail | ×2.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 |
| Broad fall in human capital | 13.7 Established → Transitional | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 28 | Regional war spillover Major + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 |
| Food and water failure | 13.4 Established → Transitional | 0.2% Unlikely · rank 117 | Regional war spillover Severe + Hybrid coercion Extremeplans fail | ×3.9 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 9.3 |
| Loss of advanced technology base | 5.8 Nascent → Inception | 0.2% Remote · rank 28 | Trade bloc rupture Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.8 | Quantum Technologies 5.5 |
| Broad fall in critical technology | 7.1 Foundational → Nascent | 0.1% Remote · rank 35 | Regional war spillover Severe + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.5 | Quantum Technologies 5.5 |
| Education pipeline failure | 14.0 Established → Transitional | 0.1% Remote · rank 76 | Regional war spillover Severe + Severe pandemic Extremeplans fail | ×3.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 |
| Loss of strategic deterrence | 3.7 Nascent → Inception | under 0.1% Remote · rank 39 | Regional war spillover Extreme + Cryptographic trust break Extremeplans fail | ×3.9 | Resource Infrastructure 8.3 |
| Routes to prosperity | Basket | Likelihood | Most likely route | Headroom | Lever |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stronger health and biotechnology | 12.6 Established → Established | 6.7% Likely · rank 28 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.4 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 |
| Frontier AI and compute | 6.9 Foundational → Foundational | 3.5% Possible · rank 26 | Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 |
| Reliable low-cost energy | 8.9 Foundational → Transitional | 3.4% Possible · rank 27 | Clean power threshold Extreme | ×1.3 | Energy Technologies 6.6 |
| Trusted public institutions | 13.8 Established → Advanced | 3.1% Possible · rank 31 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 |
| Broad rise in governance and integrity | 14.0 Established → Advanced | 2.9% Possible · rank 31 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 |
| Capable digital government | 14.1 Established → Advanced | 2.9% Possible · rank 33 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Severe | ×1.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 |
| Broad rise in critical technology | 7.1 Foundational → Foundational | 2.3% Possible · rank 26 | Automated discovery step Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 |
| Research translated into value | 12.6 Established → Established | 1.6% Possible · rank 28 | Clean power threshold Major + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×1.9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 |
| Higher-value manufacturing | 10.2 Transitional → Transitional | 1.1% Possible · rank 26 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Major | ×2.1 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 |
| Broad rise in human capital | 13.7 Established → Advanced | 1.1% Possible · rank 28 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 |
| Broad rise in production and innovation | 12.4 Established → Established | 1.1% Possible · rank 26 | Clean power threshold Extreme + Automated discovery step Major | ×2.0 | Energy Technologies 6.6 |
| Broad rise in strategic infrastructure | 12.0 Established → Established | 1.0% Unlikely · rank 30 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 |
| Stronger information environment | 12.6 Established → Established | 0.8% Unlikely · rank 26 | Chronic disease advance Major + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.7 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 |
| Higher-value international business | 12.9 Established → Established | 0.7% Unlikely · rank 35 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 |
| Broad rise in trade and investment | 12.5 Established → Established | 0.5% Unlikely · rank 41 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.0 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 |
| Sophisticated export strength | 12.5 Established → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 33 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 |
| Secure food and water supply | 13.4 Established → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 35 | Automated discovery step Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 |
| Adaptable skilled workforce | 12.9 Established → Established | 0.4% Unlikely · rank 31 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.3 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 |
| Broad rise in financial strength | 13.0 Established → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 29 | Clean power threshold Major + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 |
| Broad rise in information and influence | 12.2 Established → Established | 0.3% Unlikely · rank 27 | Chronic disease advance Severe + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×1.9 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 |
| Deeper long-term finance | 12.7 Established → Established | 0.2% Remote · rank 31 | Clean power threshold Severe + Chronic disease advance Extreme | ×2.1 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 |
| Wider international influence | 11.8 Transitional → Established | 0.1% Remote · rank 34 | Great-power détente Severe + Middle East settlement Extreme | ×2.1 | Intelligence & Assessment 10 |
| Assured space services | 6.0 Foundational → Foundational | under 0.1% Remote · rank 28 | Automated discovery step Extreme + Outbreak defence succeeds Extreme | ×2.6 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 9.6 |
| Broad rise in national security | 8.1 Foundational → Transitional | under 0.1% Remote · rank 27 | Middle East settlement Extreme + Automated discovery step Extreme | ×3.1 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 |
| More deployable joint force | 10.4 Transitional | — No route · rank 33 | No route found · closest 1.5 of 1.5 | ×3.1 | — |